This Year So Far

[adoraz]

According to RPI Forecast, if SJU goes 17-13 (AKA 18-13 with the D2 game), we'd have an RPI of 45. That'd mean if we win tomorrow, lost to Duke, and then went just 8-10 in conference we could still potentially get a bid if we win a tournament game or two. I obviously wouldn't feel safe that way, but a much rosier picture than last year where we basically had to go something ridiculous like 13-5 in BE play to make the tournament.

Stever, in this thread and others you keep bringing up what the middle of the BE is projected to do (as a way to say we won't get many bids), but really that means close to nothing. You make this same mistake year after year. I guarantee you the projections won't work out exactly as expected.

As a SJU fan, here's why. Let's look at this moment in time during the past few years:
*Last year we were 5-7 before the Syracuse game (which we won). We then beat Syracuse and went 7-11 in conference and won a BET game. Do you think we were projected to do that well in conference? We weren't.
*Two years ago, we started 7-3 and then went 1-20 and 1-17 in conference, which helped the rest of the league out. Although we sucked, I doubt we were projected to be that bad during conference play. I know you would've expected us to win a few more games and possibly cost a team a bid.
*Three years ago, we started 11-1 (better than expected), and at that time we were projected to make the tournament. Then BE play started and we went 2-6 (including the Duke game), including losses to unranked DePaul, Butler and Creighton. At that point you would've been saying we had no shot, but then we went 8-3 and made the tournament anyways.

You place a large emphasis on the "must win" games teams are favored in. You know, those games teams have a 70% chance of winning. However, even for SJU's 3 toughest home games we still have a 23%, 30%, and 34% chance of winning. That means we're likely to win one of them.

Let the games play out.

[stever20]

I should note that KP has St Johns now up to 9-9 projected. looking at it- 8.52 projected wins right now. If one of Providence, DePaul, or Georgetown home games turns into a loss, that number dips below 8.

I just think the middle of the conference is very vulnerable this year. Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Creighton have a pretty clear separation between them and the others. And DePaul and Georgetown are better than expected. Tough combo there for the 5-8 group.

St John's really needs teams like UCF to do well this year.

tomorrow is just a gigantic game for St John's. Getting a 3rd OOC loss- combined with the Duke game coming up- makes it a 8-4 OOC schedule most likely. Would make 9-9 then only getting St John's to 17-13. Extremely uncomfortable. I think 19 d1 wins overall is a sweet spot for St John's. if they can get that- they'll be dancing. If not, probably not.(this includes BET, which if you remember counts as home games).

[gtmoBlue]

New post on Bluenotes... Conf Season begins.

https://bluenotes2.com/in-the-paint-posts/

[Bill Marsh]

Here’s a look at how my preseason assessment looks compared with where teams are now, based on a composite of Sagarin and Greenfield, as we approach the beginning of the conference season:

MY PRESEASON . .. ..NOW

1. Seton Hall . . . . 1. Villanova
2. Providence. . . . 2. Xavier
3. Villanova . . . . . 3.Creighton
4. Xavier . . . . . . . 4. Seton Hall
5. Marquette . . . . 5. Butler
6. St. John’s . . . . .6. St. John’s
7. Butler . . . . . . . 7. Marquette
8. Creighton. . . . . 8. Providence
9. DePaul. . . . . . . 9. Georgetown
10. Georgetown . . 10. DePaul

From my POV, Creighton has been the biggest positive surprise while injuries have contributed to Providence’s disappointing start. The keague’s biggest surprise to me has been Creighton. Great coaching job by Coach Mac. Villanova and Xavier, the BE’s 2 most successful teams in last year’s tournament, have picked up where they left off last season.

[BEXU]

98-23 noncom (.810) best since '88-'89 (.831)

[kayako]

biggest surprise to me has been Creighton. Great coaching job by Coach Mac. Villanova and Xavier, the BE’s 2 most successful teams in last year’s tournament, have picked up where they left off last season.

Not surprised by Creighton at all, because it seems like they are always ready to play right out of the gate. IMO how they'll fare against BE opponents is a bigger mystery. I think you left out Butler's sweet 16 run.

[kayako]

I just think the middle of the conference is very vulnerable this year. Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Creighton have a pretty clear separation between them and the others. And DePaul and Georgetown are better than expected. Tough combo there for the 5-8 group.

Your caution assumes that this 5-8 group neatly knock each other outside the bubble. This can happen, but it's literally the worst possible scenario that can happen to any other conference.

[BEhomer]

I just think the middle of the conference is very vulnerable this year. Nova, Xavier, Seton Hall, and Creighton have a pretty clear separation between them and the others. And DePaul and Georgetown are better than expected. Tough combo there for the 5-8 group.

Your caution assumes that this 5-8 group neatly knock each other outside the bubble. This can happen, but it's literally the worst possible scenario that can happen to any other conference.

and the least likely scenario as well. chances are couple of these teams will gel and get on a run while couple other will have some losing streak they ultimately dont recover from. 6 bids seem very likely.

[Bill Marsh]

biggest surprise to me has been Creighton. Great coaching job by Coach Mac. Villanova and Xavier, the BE’s 2 most successful teams in last year’s tournament, have picked up where they left off last season.

Not surprised by Creighton at all, because it seems like they are always ready to play right out of the gate. IMO how they'll fare against BE opponents is a bigger mystery. I think you left out Butler's sweet 16 run.

I left out Butler because they lost 4 of their top 7 from last year and because I wasn’t impressed with what they brought in to replace them. I don’t think that run tells us a lot about what to expect from them because it’s really not the same team since too many key players are gone. Not to mention the coaching change.

[stever20]

the problem is that some of these teams in the 5-8 group will go 2-6 vs the top 4 and then maybe only split with the 9/10 teams. That's 4-8. For Providence if that happens, they'd need to go 6-0 to make the tourney. For the others, they'd need to go 5-1 vs those other 3 teams.