Pre-Season Outllook from Rothstein

[FriarJ]

We should get 7 or 8 bids. Depends on how Butler adjusts. 6 bids minimum.

When was the last time a conference got 80% of its teams in the NCAA tournament?

Sorry, I just don't see it.

Before football arrived, when we let Miami (Fla) in for 1992, we had only 9 teams:
We got 7 of 9 teams in the 1991 NCAA's, 77%.
We got 6 of 9 teams in the 1990 NCAA's, 66%.
We got 5 of 9 teams in the 1989 NCAA's, 55% ---> but 3 in the Elite-8 ---> and 1 in NC final.
We got 6 of 9 teams in the 1988 NCAA's, 66%.


Looking at 1989 ---> we came close to another 3 in the Final Four... Seton Hall blew out UNLV in the Saturday game... on Sunday, Syracuse (Sherman Douglas, Derrick Coleman, Stevie Thompson, Billy Owens) lost to Illinois by 3 in a tight game... and Georgetown (Charles Smith, Alonzo Mourning, plus an unseasoned Dikembe Mutombo) also lost a tight game to Duke that was tied with under 10 minutes (Georgetown took only around 90 seconds to erase like a 14 point Duke 2nd half lead to a tie game--- Duke was on the ropes but recovered...)

May very easily had 3 teams in 87 as well if Georgetown had not had to play PC in the elite 8. Georgetown had a great team that year.

[billyjack]

Before football arrived, when we let Miami (Fla) in for 1992, we had only 9 teams:
We got 7 of 9 teams in the 1991 NCAA's, 77%.
We got 6 of 9 teams in the 1990 NCAA's, 66%.
We got 5 of 9 teams in the 1989 NCAA's, 55% ---> but 3 in the Elite-8 ---> and 1 in NC final.
We got 6 of 9 teams in the 1988 NCAA's, 66%.


Looking at 1989 ---> we came close to another 3 in the Final Four... Seton Hall blew out UNLV in the Saturday game... on Sunday, Syracuse (Sherman Douglas, Derrick Coleman, Stevie Thompson, Billy Owens) lost to Illinois by 3 in a tight game... and Georgetown (Charles Smith, Alonzo Mourning, plus an unseasoned Dikembe Mutombo) also lost a tight game to Duke that was tied with under 10 minutes (Georgetown took only around 90 seconds to erase like a 14 point Duke 2nd half lead to a tie game--- Duke was on the ropes but recovered...)

May very easily had 3 teams in 87 as well if Georgetown had not had to play PC in the elite 8. Georgetown had a great team that year.

Yeah, great point!

[BillEsq]

All the numbers from the past are great however the landscape of college basketball is a lot different. More leagues get auto bids and there is a very heavy focus on computer rankings such as the RPI. It is highly unlikely that you will ever see a league get 70-80 percent of its teams in ever again.

However it is not impossible.... if the BE does it it would be incredible!!!!!

[GumbyDamnit!]

I think he has Nova a bit high.

Easier to group teams in bunches rather than assign a position.

Top Three (Alpha order) Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette - all in NCAA
Middle Four (Alpha order) - Providence, St. John's, Villanova, Xavier - one or two NCAA bids, two or three in NIT
Bottom Three (Alpha order) Butler, DePaul, Seton Hall - no NCAA bids

Maybe John R., being a NY guy, is a little biased towards the old guard Big East teams. I'll be the first to say that I am as well; probably because I have watched these team battle each other for the past 25+ years, and have much respect for them. I know the RPI is not the end all, be all, but Creighton last year played exactly 1 team in the RPI Top 20 (when they lost to Duke in the tourney). Nova played 7 games vs Top 20 RPI teams and won 4 of those games. I am not saying that Nova was a better team than Creighton last year; they prob weren't. But Creighton struggled to beat Cinn in tourney and Cinn finished tied for 9th in the league with Providence. But before we crown Creighton an elite BE team, let them go on the road into a couple hostile environments vs the top teams and see how they do. Even more, where exactly are the days off for them this year like they have been used to? I guarantee tha they will have tough games at DePaul and SHU as well. Also the loss of Greg E. is probably not insignificant. For a team that is losing its biggest/physical player going into a league that is normally athletic and physical, might not be as easy as it sounds. I am not saying that Creigton is not a good team, and that they may end up near the top of the league. I just think that leagues like this with so much balance and competition can wear you down at times. Many in the BE have expereinced it for years. A newcomer like Creighton may struggle adapting at first.

I think Marq is the class of the league and the next 6 teams (Creight, Xav, Prov, SJU, Gtwn, Nova) could end up in any order 2-7. I expect Butler, DePaul and SHU to finish 8th, 9th and 10th respectively.

[Dew]

In their defense, Creighton did beat a Final Four team (Wichita St) twice in the last week of the season. Not playing top 20 teams can't be held against a mid major league.

[GumbyDamnit!]

In their defense, Creighton did beat a Final Four team (Wichita St) twice in the last week of the season. Not playing top 20 teams can't be held against a mid major league.

I'm not holding it against them, I'm just stating that they never got to experience battling great teams night in and night out, like many of the others have. Had Creighton had 3 or 4 more teams the likes of Wichita State (whom I would expect would have been a middle of the pack team in the BE last year, like Creighton), they would have that experience that I refer to.

I have remembered years in which Nova played a Top 10 team at Syracuse on a Saturday, at team like Louisville for Big Monday at home and then return the next Saturday to play another Top 10 team in UCONN on the road. Schedules like that either build character or demoralize you. Programs like Rutgers, who had a good deal of talent, couldn't handle it and would fold. Teams like Gtwon, Marq, Nova, etc., would dig in and fight. They know what its like. Creighton doesn't yet. That is the big reason I don't think Creighton will win the league this year.

[mel ott]

Creighton also beat California on the road, beat Arizona State and Wisconsin at a neutral site tournament- all by double digits. Also, beat Neb. like a drum (ok not a top team) but the others were. The Valley was around 8-9 RPI league so not a lot of easy road wins. There are a lot of assumptions on your part about scheduling. Prior years BCS teams say you don't play a hard enough schedule, but they were unwilling to play us. Catch 22. The key is road games- college basketball has the biggest home advantage of any college sport. No one conference has had a winning percentage on the road regardless of conference. There may indeed by an initial adjustment period for the three new partners, as much for cities, arenas, lodging and overall "comfortableness" with road trips. We shall see.

[ArmyVet]

I looked and saw that Creighton went 13-5 in the MVC and graduated their big guy. Do you expect a better finish against Big East competition? I don't see it. I think Creighton competes for a Top 3 seed but won't win the Big East.

[Bluejay]

But Creighton struggled to beat Cinn in tourney and Cinn finished tied for 9th in the league with Providence.

I completely understand someone not picking Creighton to win the league (hell, I'm picking Marquette myself), but this is about the lamest reason ever. Using this same sort of logic, I guess that since Villanova lost in the NCAA tourney to George Mason in 2011, 'Nova couldn't have hoped to compete in the CAA that year. See how ridiculous that sounds?

But before we crown Creighton an elite BE team, let them go on the road into a couple hostile environments vs the top teams and see how they do. Even more, where exactly are the days off for them this year like they have been used to?

First of all, I haven't seen anyone crowning Creighton.

Secondly, you have a bit of a point, but what I think you fail to take into consideration is that in our prior league, we were the big dogs that everybody else got fired up to play. Almost always, we were each opponent's biggest home game. Teams that had mediocre attendance during the season came out in big numbers to root against Creighton. In fact, I would contend that the roadies as a whole may have been more hostile than we see this coming season, simply for that one factor (I don't think there will be a ton of built up hatred for Creighton this year, but that can certainly change over time). Further, as far as hostile environments go, I'd suggest that it would be pretty difficult to be more hostile than what they put together at Wichita yearly. Those people hate Creighton and are not afraid of letting the players know.... On top of that, every team was more focused as they wanted to knock off Creighton more than anybody else. There is a lot of pressure on the players backs when you are expected to win every game.

I completely agree that there will be adjustments. Travel may well be one of the biggest, simply because Creighton will be seeing venues for the very first time and staying at new hotels, finding new places to eat, etc. (i.e., there is no routine established yet). Scouting will also be unbalanced as Creighton has to learn every team's tendencies, whereas the C7 only have three new teams to learn about. If you want to use those reasons to justify a lower rank for Creighton, I wouldn't argue, but using one game in the NCAA tournament as the measuring test seems remarkably weak to me.

[Omahanian]

Maybe John R., being a NY guy, is a little biased towards the old guard Big East teams. I'll be the first to say that I am as well; probably because I have watched these team battle each other for the past 25+ years, and have much respect for them. I know the RPI is not the end all, be all, but Creighton last year played exactly 1 team in the RPI Top 20 (when they lost to Duke in the tourney). Nova played 7 games vs Top 20 RPI teams and won 4 of those games. I am not saying that Nova was a better team than Creighton last year; they prob weren't. But Creighton struggled to beat Cinn in tourney and Cinn finished tied for 9th in the league with Providence. But before we crown Creighton an elite BE team, let them go on the road into a couple hostile environments vs the top teams and see how they do. Even more, where exactly are the days off for them this year like they have been used to? I guarantee tha they will have tough games at DePaul and SHU as well. Also the loss of Greg E. is probably not insignificant. For a team that is losing its biggest/physical player going into a league that is normally athletic and physical, might not be as easy as it sounds. I am not saying that Creigton is not a good team, and that they may end up near the top of the league. I just think that leagues like this with so much balance and competition can wear you down at times. Many in the BE have expereinced it for years. A newcomer like Creighton may struggle adapting at first.

I think Marq is the class of the league and the next 6 teams (Creight, Xav, Prov, SJU, Gtwn, Nova) could end up in any order 2-7. I expect Butler, DePaul and SHU to finish 8th, 9th and 10th respectively.

These seem like valid concerns. Bluejays response has some valid points as well. I really haven't seen much of the Big East style of play over the years. What I hear of the physical style though has me concerned if the current stable of Creighton players has enough athleticism. I would guess there is enough basketball IQ and talent. But in terms of pure athleticism I am concerned. I think we play sound defense for the most part but on defense is where being a half step slower makes such a visible difference.

My hope is that the new Big East officiating strikes more of a balance away from allowing the pure slugfests I have heard about (but not actually seen, so I don't know). I remember when basketball was actually a non-contact sport.

So whether the Big East is actually that physical, whether that is a good thing or a bad thing and whether Creighton is up to the new challenge out of the gates, only time will tell. But it's gonna be a hell of a ride. Can't wait to welcome all of you to Omaha.