KenPom 2017-2018

[stever20]

Sorry but the #2 league only gets a 1 seed and then 2nd team on the 6-7 line? And that's supposed to be good? I just don't think the round robin does the league any favors in both getting high seeds and getting the teams in.

We saw the benefits with the old big east. got 11 teams in- so the same 70%- but with that had 9 teams seeded #6 or higher. It's just so much easier in 14-15 team leagues to get end of the year with 10 teams at 9-9 or better records- meaning with their OOC schedules- they're going to have realistic shots to make the tournament. But at the same time, still have the upper echelon teams who can get top 3-4 seeds.

Big East in 2010-13- had 10,11,8,10 finish with 9-9 records- so 39 in 4 years or 9.75 teams per year- 62% of the teams(8 of those teams were 9 seeds or lower)
Big East in 2010-13 had 4,5,6,4 finish with 12-6 records or better- so 19 in 4 years or 4.75 teams per year- 30% of the teams

Big East in 2014-17 had- 6,6,6,7 finish with 9-9 records- so 25 in 4 years or 6.25 teams per year- 63% of the teams(9 of those teams 9 seeds or lower)
Big East in 2014-17 had- 2,3,3,2 finish with 12-6 records- so 10 in 4 years or 2.5 teams per year- 25% of the teams

so the percentage of teams is the same- but the percentage of 12-6 teams is better. That's big because 12-6 teams get good seeds. average for the 8 years of 12-6 teams is 3.48 seed. And that's with the USF outlier from 2012. You take them out and it's a 3.18 average seed.

look at the percentage of bids-
top 4 seeds 10-13- 19/39- 49% 14-17 10/25- 40%
9 seeds or lower 10-13- 8/39- 21% 14-17 9/25- 36%
dreaded 7/10 seeds- 10/13- 9/39 23% 14-17 5/25- 20%

I just don't think the round robin is as big of a home run as folks here want to make it out to be. Not in terms of the NCAA tourney. It's great for league overall in terms of forming rivalries etc.

[milksteak]

Sorry but the #2 league only gets a 1 seed and then 2nd team on the 6-7 line? And that's supposed to be good? I just don't think the round robin does the league any favors in both getting high seeds and getting the teams in.

We saw the benefits with the old big east. got 11 teams in- so the same 70%- but with that had 9 teams seeded #6 or higher. It's just so much easier in 14-15 team leagues to get end of the year with 10 teams at 9-9 or better records- meaning with their OOC schedules- they're going to have realistic shots to make the tournament. But at the same time, still have the upper echelon teams who can get top 3-4 seeds.

Big East in 2010-13- had 10,11,8,10 finish with 9-9 records- so 39 in 4 years or 9.75 teams per year- 62% of the teams(8 of those teams were 9 seeds or lower)
Big East in 2010-13 had 4,5,6,4 finish with 12-6 records or better- so 19 in 4 years or 4.75 teams per year- 30% of the teams

Big East in 2014-17 had- 6,6,6,7 finish with 9-9 records- so 25 in 4 years or 6.25 teams per year- 63% of the teams(9 of those teams 9 seeds or lower)
Big East in 2014-17 had- 2,3,3,2 finish with 12-6 records- so 10 in 4 years or 2.5 teams per year- 25% of the teams

so the percentage of teams is the same- but the percentage of 12-6 teams is better. That's big because 12-6 teams get good seeds. average for the 8 years of 12-6 teams is 3.48 seed. And that's with the USF outlier from 2012. You take them out and it's a 3.18 average seed.

look at the percentage of bids-
top 4 seeds 10-13- 19/39- 49% 14-17 10/25- 40%
9 seeds or lower 10-13- 8/39- 21% 14-17 9/25- 36%
dreaded 7/10 seeds- 10/13- 9/39 23% 14-17 5/25- 20%

I just don't think the round robin is as big of a home run as folks here want to make it out to be. Not in terms of the NCAA tourney. It's great for league overall in terms of forming rivalries etc.

LEAVE IT TO STEVER

[Irishdawg]

Sorry but the #2 league only gets a 1 seed and then 2nd team on the 6-7 line? And that's supposed to be good? I just don't think the round robin does the league any favors in both getting high seeds and getting the teams in.

2015 - Louisville - 27-9 (12-6 in ACC)
2015 - Georgetown - 22-11 (12-6 in Big East)
2015 - Maryland - 28-7 (14-4 in Big Ten)

How did they end up with the exact same seed?

2016 - Indiana - 27-8 (15-3 in Big Ten)
2016 - Xavier - 28-6 (14-4 in Big East)

How did Xavier wind up 3 full seed lines better than Indiana?

2017 - Florida - 27-9 (14-4 in SEC)
2017 - Butler - 25-9 (12-6 in Big East)
2017 - Wisconsin - 27-10 (12-6 in Big Ten)
2017 - Maryland - 24-9 (12-6 in Big Ten)

How did Butler wind up on the same seed line as Florida? Better yet, how did they wind up 2 seed lines higher than Maryland, and 4 seed lines higher than Wisconsin?

The fact is that who you play and beat matters, both in and out of conference. I wish you'd stop trying to justify your position. It's baseless and wrong, and can be proven each and every year.

[Savannah Jay]

Sorry but the #2 league only gets a 1 seed and then 2nd team on the 6-7 line? And that's supposed to be good? I just don't think the round robin does the league any favors in both getting high seeds and getting the teams in.

2015 - Louisville - 27-9 (12-6 in ACC)
2015 - Georgetown - 22-11 (12-6 in Big East)
2015 - Maryland - 28-7 (14-4 in Big Ten)

How did they end up with the exact same seed?

2016 - Indiana - 27-8 (15-3 in Big Ten)
2016 - Xavier - 28-6 (14-4 in Big East)

How did Xavier wind up 3 full seed lines better than Indiana?

2017 - Florida - 27-9 (14-4 in SEC)
2017 - Butler - 25-9 (12-6 in Big East)
2017 - Wisconsin - 27-10 (12-6 in Big Ten)
2017 - Maryland - 24-9 (12-6 in Big Ten)

How did Butler wind up on the same seed line as Florida? Better yet, how did they wind up 2 seed lines higher than Maryland, and 4 seed lines higher than Wisconsin?

The fact is that who you play and beat matters, both in and out of conference. I wish you'd stop trying to justify your position. It's baseless and wrong, and can be proven each and every year.

Easy dawg...you're throwing an awful lot of facts at a subjective declaration.

Psst...I am not sure all posters on here realize that in conference play, the totality of all teams' conference records is .500, whether it's a 10 team or a 15 team league.

[stever20]

2015-
Louisville was 24-8
Georgetown was 21-10
Maryland was 27-6

2016-
Indiana- 25-7
Xavier- 27-5

2017-
Florida- 24-8
Butler- 23-8
Wisconsin- 25-9
Maryland- 24-8
So first thing you can't do is use the records after the tourney to make any case. So that's why Florida and Butler ended up on the same seed line.

obviously OOC SOS means something. I think a good way to phrase it- you can still get with a good conference record a bad seed due to a bad OOC schedule. But you can't get a good seed with a mediocre conference record.

What a non round robin gives you is the chance to have more teams with a chance at finishing with good records, throwing them into the mix. Big East has had 1 11 win team in the 4 years. So combine that with 12+ and Big East has had only 11 teams finish with 11+ wins in the 4 years. 2.75 per year. The lowest seed any of those 11 have gotten- a 6 seed.

As to point about the conference records all being .500. Of course that's the point. The thing is in a big league- you can have 2 teams finishing at 1-17 and that's not going to kill you SOS wise. You aren't guaranteed of seeing those 2 teams 4 times and killing the SOS.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Sorry but the #2 league only gets a 1 seed and then 2nd team on the 6-7 line? And that's supposed to be good? I just don't think the round robin does the league any favors in both getting high seeds and getting the teams in.

2015 - Louisville - 27-9 (12-6 in ACC)
2015 - Georgetown - 22-11 (12-6 in Big East)
2015 - Maryland - 28-7 (14-4 in Big Ten)

How did they end up with the exact same seed?

2016 - Indiana - 27-8 (15-3 in Big Ten)
2016 - Xavier - 28-6 (14-4 in Big East)

How did Xavier wind up 3 full seed lines better than Indiana?

2017 - Florida - 27-9 (14-4 in SEC)
2017 - Butler - 25-9 (12-6 in Big East)
2017 - Wisconsin - 27-10 (12-6 in Big Ten)
2017 - Maryland - 24-9 (12-6 in Big Ten)

How did Butler wind up on the same seed line as Florida? Better yet, how did they wind up 2 seed lines higher than Maryland, and 4 seed lines higher than Wisconsin?

The fact is that who you play and beat matters, both in and out of conference. I wish you'd stop trying to justify your position. It's baseless and wrong, and can be proven each and every year.

The fact is that who you play and beat matters, both in and out of conference.

Thank you Dawg. I wish that Stever would just keep reading that sentence over and over.

In the last 2 years the B12 has had 13 bids, 8 of which were top 5 seeds (as per Stever himself), the BE has had 12 bids with 4 Top 5 seeds. So how again is the 10 team round robin hurting the B12 and BE again? In terms of % of teams and top seeds, it has ZERO effect. If anything it gives teams on the bubble chances to get signature wins (see Marq. 2016). Add 4 teams to the BE and make Marq only play Nova away once and have teams like Rutgers or St. Louis as additional wins instead and they might be sweating on Selection Sunday.

Creighton last year was a 6 seed (even with the committee knowing they lost their best player) and PC was an 11. Why the huge disparity if they both played the same conf schedule and ended up with the same conf record?

[FriarJ]

Stever always implies that conferences are stronger for having cupcakes at the bottom of the league, that's why he is always pimping the AAC as they have many. I will stick with how everyone else looks at conferences and why the BE is always rated, ranked, prophesied as being one of the top conferences. That's because they are and no matter how he spins the numbers otherwise he can't change the truth.

[stever20]

Marquette 2016? Um, they didn't make the tournament. They were 20-13 and 8-10 in conference. If they had 2 more wins instead of losses to round robin teams, they could easily have gotten in.

If you are using them in 2017 sorry but the ONLY reason they got in 2017 was they were 4-0 vs Xavier and Creighton after the injuries. If they go even 2-2 in those 4 games, they are only 17-15 and they are NIT. At some point, your record DOES matter. And that's something folks here want to totally ignore.

And I'm not advocating cupcakes at the bottom of the league. I'm saying if you have 12 teams if you have 14 teams- you're going to have more teams finishing with 11 and 12 and 13 conference wins. When you add OOC games, you're going to have more teams in the top 4 seed lines, giving yourself more chances to make runs in the tourney. When you're stuck with a lot of 9 seeds, you're seeing #1 seeds in 2nd rounds(often on the road) and that's not conducive to make runs. (plus with 12-14 teams- not only can you get a lot of higher seeds, but you also can get the extra teams in.

With a 10 team league- your season as a league is largely determined more than bigger leagues by your OOC schedule. Just look at the difference between Big 12 and Big East. #1 Big 12 has 8/13 bids as top 5 bids. #3/4 Big East has 4/12 bids as top 5 bids. 202-49 vs 192-59 in those 2 years.

[Savannah Jay]

As to point about the conference records all being .500. Of course that's the point. The thing is in a big league- you can have 2 teams finishing at 1-17 and that's not going to kill you SOS wise. You aren't guaranteed of seeing those 2 teams 4 times and killing the SOS.

So....are you saying it's better to have the two cupcakes at the bottom with 1-17 records (which is 34 more conference wins for the teams above them, thereby earning better records and better seeds) or that having to play them a total of 4 times could kill the RPI? Because you have literally made both of those arguments and they are mutually exclusive. You either rack up wins by playing them each twice and hurt your RPI or some teams don't get to play them both twice and instead have to play better teams in the conference...which helps their RPI but jeopardizes wins.

Which is better?

[hortle]

stever, your main argument is that we can get 5 teams into the tourney consistently, but because of the round robin format the quality of our seeds suffers and this equates to lack of ncaa tourney success. The main flaw in your argument is that 6/11 and 7/10 upsets happen ALL THE TIME in march. and, our teams are mentally prepared for crunch time by consistently playing good competition during the conference season. A typical 11 seed from the BE is a better team than an 11 seed from the ACC.

All you have to do is put teams in the tourney. The #'s should sort out in the long run. Once they do, you really won't have any sort of foundation for this argument.