Big East Recruiting - 4 years in

[GumbyDamnit!]

I spent some time on 247 sports and was interested in seeing a 4 year look at which BE teams seemed to be doing best on the recruiting trail. I first looked at overall class rankings each year (2014-17) and then # of 4 and 5 star players brought in. I was a bit surprised at some of the data.

First I looked at class rankings. By adding up each of the 4 years and providing a point value for where the team landed in the conference team rankings. So a low score is a good thing. (Years 2014 - 15 - 16 - 17)

1. PC. 4 - 5 - 4 - 2 = 15
2. X. 2 - 10 - 3 - 1 = 16
3. Marq. 9 - 1 - 1 - 7 = 18
4t. CU. 6 - 6 - 5 - 3 = 20
4t. Nova. 5 - 4 - 7 - 4 = 20
4t. G'town. 1 - 3 - 10 - 6 = 20
7. SJU. 10 - 2 - 2 - 9 = 23
8. SHU. 3 - 8 - 8 - 5 = 24
9. BU. 7 - 9 - 6 - 8 = 30
10. Dep. 8 - 7 - 9 - 10 = 34

# of 4 and 5 Star Players:
1. X. (10) 4*
2t. PC (8) 4*
2t. SJU (8) 4*
2t. G'twn (8) 4*
5. Nova (2) 5* / (5) 4*
6. Marq. (1) 5* / (6) 4*
7. SHU. (1) 5* / (4) 4*
8. CU (4) 4*
9. BU (2) 4*
10. Dep (0)

Caveats:
- Does not take into account players who have already left the program. G'town and PC have been bitten most by the transfer or early departure bug.
- Obviously does not factor in transfers coming in. Some programs feed off the transfer system more than others.

Observations:
- X and PC seem to be doing the best job on the recruiting trail; Cooley and Mack can certainly recruit well.
- I was surprised that for how dominant Nova has been in the standings, it's not like we/they are bringing in the most talent. Middle of the pack for both team rankings and # of players. Two 5 star players on the team for this year though so no complaints.
- The Butler way. Just bring us good players and we'll make them great. Exhibit A - Kamar Baldwin
- 59 total 4*/5* players in 4 recruiting classes. Damn. That's a lot of talent. No wonder we are building the conference up nicely.

[stever20]

Nova had #4 NBE class in '12 and #2 NBE class in '13. So with those 2 years, Nova has had top half class in 5/6 years. And the one year they didn't, they had #21 player in the country added.

And well on their way to another top half class in '18 with 2 top 60 guys.

[gtmoBlue]

Creighton adds up to 20. Either they are tied for 4th with the next group (Nova-Gtwn) or one of their figures is incorrect.
Jays are a school that really works the transfer market also.

...not that it matters - as the conference is doing very well.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Creighton adds up to 20. Either they are tied for 4th with the next group (Nova-Gtwn) or one of their figures is incorrect.
Jays are a school that really works the transfer market also.

...not that it matters - as the conference is doing very well.

My bad...Nova education.

[xusandy]

Thanks Gumby -- very interesting data. This recruiting success is either much better (Xavier, Providence, Creighton), or at least as good as what it was in the several years before we came together. Way back when I joined this board, I predicted that when high quality recruits (bball talent, a good work ethic, and enough academic smarts to succeed at a school offering a "real" education) are given the choice between attending a top program in a top league WITHOUT football and attending one WITH big time football, a LOT of them will eventually opt for the former. It's the BMOC (Big man on campus) syndrome, and just about every 17-18 year old athletic stud has it -- mostly because of the way they were treated in high school and AAU ball. We have apparently already arrived at that blessed state!

[GumbyDamnit!]

Thanks Gumby -- very interesting data. This recruiting success is either much better (Xavier, Providence, Creighton), or at least as good as what it was in the several years before we came together. Way back when I joined this board, I predicted that when high quality recruits (bball talent, a good work ethic, and enough academic smarts to succeed at a school offering a "real" education) are given the choice between attending a top program in a top league WITHOUT football and attending one WITH big time football, a LOT of them will eventually opt for the former. It's the BMOC (Big man on campus) syndrome, and just about every 17-18 year old athletic stud has it -- mostly because of the way they were treated in high school and AAU ball. We have apparently already arrived at that blessed state!

That seems to be a factor. There are BB schools in the FB P5. UK, KU, Duke, Arizona, UNC. But most of the rest of them are football schools that happen to have another sport when FB season is over. Ohio St., Bama, LSU, Mich., Oregon, USC, etc. If a kid wants to be top dog and he is not blue blood material, where better to be than the BE? And I don't think we should discount a very good young coaching nucleus. Jay, Cooley, Big Mac, Mack, Wojo. Especially those first four...I can see them hanging around for a while.

[Irishdawg]

- The Butler way. Just bring us good players and we'll make them great. Exhibit A - Kamar Baldwin

I would disagree with that assessment, but along with transfers, Butler has done a good job at identifying and getting guys that are under the radar that can compete in the Big East and getting them to play within their strengths. Baldwin was simply incorrectly rated, Butler didn't make him great, especially as a true freshman. If he can stay healthy, I think Christian David could fall into that category as well.

It's certainly a very interesting examination, and thank you for putting this together.

[milksteak]

- The Butler way. Just bring us good players and we'll make them great. Exhibit A - Kamar Baldwin

I would disagree with that assessment, but along with transfers, Butler has done a good job at identifying and getting guys that are under the radar that can compete in the Big East and getting them to play within their strengths. Baldwin was simply incorrectly rated, Butler didn't make him great, especially as a true freshman. If he can stay healthy, I think Christian David could fall into that category as well.

It's certainly a very interesting examination, and thank you for putting this together.

Baldwin was criminally underrated. IIRC, he nearly averaged a triple-double as a upperclassman.

[stever20]

so I took Gumby's numbers and did some stuff with them..... took out the '17 ratings. Since those guys haven't played yet.... Changed the ratings instead of lower being better to poll type thing where 1st place got 10 points.... And compared the recruiting ratings to conference wins the last 3 years...

numerator is # of conference wins last 3 years
denominator is recruiting ratings 14-16

But 34/11= 3.09
Nova 47/17= 2.76
SH 28/14= 2.00
X 32/18= 1.78
PC 31/20= 1.55
Cre 23/16= 1.44
Geo 24/19= 1.26
Dep 11/9= 1.22
Marq 22/22= 1.00
SJ 18/19= 0.95

Just shows how great Butler and Nova have done. And the sleeper that no one talks about- Seton Hall and Willard. And Mack and Cooley doing well for themselves.

I think the big surprise in this is Marquette. Now, to be fair, they have 2 #1 classes in 15 and 16- but only 2 and 1 year getting to play with those classes so far. But still- this to me is a HUGE year for Wojo.

[stever20]

if you add in BET wins, which is fair I feel....

Nova 55/17=3.24
But 34/11=3.09
SH 32/14=2.29
X 37/18=2.05
PC 33/20=1.65
Cre 26/16=1.63
Geo 26/19=1.37
Dep 11/9=1.22
Marq 24/22=1.09
SJ 19/19=1.00

Really sets up nicely in 5 classes....
The extreme overachievers- Villanova and Butler
The overachievers- Seton Hall and Xavier
The average to slightly above average- Providence and Creighton
the average to slightly below average- Georgetown and DePaul
The underachievers- Marquette, St John's