Bracketology '17

[billyjack]

So is everyone comfortable with us getting 7 bids?
Barring a group of unlikely results this weekend, PC should be in, right?
Stever... what is your view on this?

Looks like the key games today are:
1. Iowa State over TCU.
2. West Virginia over K-State.
3. Wisconsin over Indiana.
4. Oregon over California.
5. Kentucky over Georgia.
6. Florida over Vanderbilt.

also:
AAC tourney won by Cincinnati or SMU.
A-10 tourney won by Dayton or VCU.

would be nice if:
Mountain West tourney won by Nevada.
C-USA tourney won by Middle Tennessee.

[stever20]

Here's Lunardi's last 8 in/first 8 out like I've been doing...
Providence done
Marquette done
Xavier vs Creighton
Vanderbilt vs Florida

Syracuse done
Wake Forest done
USC done
Kansas St vs West Virginia

Rhode Island vs St Bonaventure
Illinois St done
Houston vs UConn
California vs Oregon

Georgia vs Kentucky
Indiana vs Wisconsin
TCU vs Iowa St
Illinois done

my thought on the bracket is pretty close to what Lunardi has. I think I'd probably flip Xavier ahead of PC and Marquette. I feel like PC is safely in.

I think unless something unusual happens today, not only 7 in, but I think 7 not even in Dayton. If today has a lot of upsets, all bets are off.

I don't think MWC matters at all in the equation. IF Nevada loses, they're done.

[billyjack]

Thanks stever...

[Bill Marsh]

The bubble is in complete disarray and is almost impossible to predict.

The problem with predicting all of this is not in figuring out who the best teams are, or in figuring out who has the best profile according to RPI or any other formula. The problem is in predicting how the 10 members of the committee are going to tweak the bubble to come up with their final decisions. I don't know how anyone predicts someone else's thoughts and conclusions. Especially this year.

Syracuse is the perfect example. Historically low RPI. But 3 top 15 wins and 6 top 50 wins. But some bad losses and 2-11 away from the Carrier Dome. But they play in the top conference. I'm getting whiplash from all those "Buts". I can't see them getting in, but Andy Bottoms does. It's just an example, but it shows how the committee and the staff that advises them can highlight a lot of different factors. We just don't know which one's will be the tiebreakers in any Committee member's mind.

[stever20]

for the record- here's the current NCAA team sheets.
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... Sheets.pdf

[kayako]

The bubble is in complete disarray and is almost impossible to predict.

The problem with predicting all of this is not in figuring out who the best teams are, or in figuring out who has the best profile according to RPI or any other formula. The problem is in predicting how the 10 members of the committee are going to tweak the bubble to come up with their final decisions.

I've always thought having Sunday conference tournament finals really makes things difficult. There are 6 this season, which is more than I remember in the past.

[stever20]

I would say not a great day for Providence and Marquette. Vanderbilt beat Florida yet again so they probably would get ahead of them in the pecking order. Xavier may beat Creighton, which would allow X to pass them as well. Then the Dayton loss means A10 could easily get a 3rd team in and 1 would be in as auto bid and then Dayton and VCU might both be ahead of PC and Marquette.

I think PC and Marquette are in, but today means they are far more likely to be going to Dayton than they were before.

[kayako]

I'm just gonna list potential bid thieves that may emerge, but so far we've had zero bids stolen so far. The BE bubble teams look relatively safe atm, but that can change in a hurry with a few undesirable results.

A10 - This is perhaps the most likely conference to steal a bid. VCU has to win the title to keep that league at 2 bids. A Rhode Island win today vs. Davidson may get them an at-large without having to win the title as well, but they're right on the bubble.

American - Fairly simple here, as Cinci or SMU winning the conference tournament keeps AAC at 2 bids. No other possibilities.

CUSA - Middle Tennessee State will play for the conference title vs. Marshall today. A loss may or may not knock them out of the bracket.

MWC - Nevada will play for the conference title vs. Colorado State today. They're currently ranked right below the last at-large bid in the matrix, so there's the danger of Nevada stealing a bid if they lose today. Colorado State has had a nice season, but the resume is nowhere near getting an at-large bid.

SEC - This is the only power conference that can steal a bid. Alabama needs to beat Kentucky today (3rd game in 3 days) and then beat the winner of Arkansas/Vanderbilt on Sunday. With the right outcome, the SEC may end up taking 2 extra bids that they weren't projected to take going into the SEC tournament.

Sun Belt - UT Arlington took a damaging loss in their season finale, probably knocking them out of the consideration. They better make and win the conference tournament final on Sunday if they want to go to the right tournament, as they're not really on anyone's radar. An at-large bid would be a surprise.

[kayako]

my thought on the bracket is pretty close to what Lunardi has. I think I'd probably flip Xavier ahead of PC and Marquette. I feel like PC is safely in.

I think unless something unusual happens today, not only 7 in, but I think 7 not even in Dayton. If today has a lot of upsets, all bets are off.

I don't think MWC matters at all in the equation. IF Nevada loses, they're done.

Lunardi now has only 2 teams in the last out territory.

Last Four Byes

Seton Hall
Providence
Marquette
Xavier

Last Four In

Syracuse
Wake Forest
Kansas State
USC

Last out

Rhode Island
Illinois State

Unless Lunardi is way off the base here, your NO Dayton scenario is a good possibility. Gotta watch the A10, AAC, and SEC thieves.

[herodotus]

my thought on the bracket is pretty close to what Lunardi has. I think I'd probably flip Xavier ahead of PC and Marquette. I feel like PC is safely in.

I think unless something unusual happens today, not only 7 in, but I think 7 not even in Dayton. If today has a lot of upsets, all bets are off.

I don't think MWC matters at all in the equation. IF Nevada loses, they're done.

Lunardi now has only 2 teams in the last out territory.

Last Four Byes

Seton Hall
Providence
Marquette
Xavier

Last Four In

Syracuse
Wake Forest
Kansas State
USC

Last out

Rhode Island
Illinois State

Unless Lunardi is way off the base here, your NO Dayton scenario is a good possibility. Gotta watch the A10, AAC, and SEC thieves.

Rhode Island won't be a true bid thief though. If they win the A10, they will have a resume that would have gotten them an at large anyway. Davidson is the bid thief to watch. They have a great coach, and are dangerous enough to get the job done.