Bracketology '17

[Jet915]

Jon Rothstein‏ @JonRothstein

The Big East looks to comfortably have seven teams in the NCAA Tournament. Key injuries to Creighton and Xavier opened door for balance

[stever20]

today is a huge day for the bubble.... looking at Lunardi's last 8 in 1st 8 out....

4th team with a bye Providence vs Creighton
3rd team with a bye Marquette vs Seton Hall
2nd team with a bye Vanderbilt vs Texas A&M
last team with a bye USC vs UCLA

3rd team in Xavier vs Butler

2nd team out Kansas St vs Baylor
3rd team out Illinois vs Michigan
4th team out Iowa vs Indiana
6th team out Cal vs Utah
7th team out Indiana vs Iowa
8th team out Georgia vs Tennessee

win or season is over for- Kansas St, Illinois, Iowa, Cal, Indiana, Georgia
win and in tourney for sure- Providence, Creighton, Vanderbilt, USC, Xavier. Probably really Kansas St as well.

The big game looking is Iowa/Indiana. Winner sets up game with Wisconsin and win there and you are in guaranteed.

[Bill Marsh]

so looking at Lunardi's latest bracket- here's the big games for today-

last team with a bye Syracuse- plays Miami
4th team in (first in FF) Xavier- plays DePaul
3rd team in Wake Forest- plays Va Tech
2nd team in USC- plays Washington
5th team out Clemson- plays Duke
7th team out California- plays Oregon St

So a HUGE day for the bubble- especially for those that are thought to be in the tourney right now.

Win or season is over for Xavier, USC, Clemson, and Cal.
Win and in tourney for sure for Syracuse and Wake Forest.
Clemson with a chance to really move up the chain with a win here. I think they would get past everyone in the 1st 4 teams out group and then probably pass Illinois St as well if they can beat Duke.
For Xavier and USC win really doesn't clinch anything but maintains status quo- and sets up game tomorrow that would clinch the spot.

Good-bye, Syracuse. Xavier lives to fight another day.

[BEXU]

Jon Rothstein‏ @JonRothstein

The Big East looks to comfortably have seven teams in the NCAA Tournament. Key injuries to Creighton and Xavier opened door for balance

Yep, and nice Chunk O' Change in NCAA Units for the cause.

[stever20]

The only thing with the units is if the injuries hadn't happened and conference only had gotten 4 in- but they were seeded much higher- the odds are gotten at least 3 sweet 16 teams and at least 1 elite 8 team. So say 1 elite 8, 3 sweet 16, 4 final 32's. That with the 4 teams would have been 12 units.

now lets say Nova goes elite 8, Butler sweet 16, but the other 5 knocked out rd 1. That's 12 units.

End of the day, would wind up with pretty close to the same number of units the conference would have gotten had the 2 injuries not happened. If Nova or Butler got upset, may wind up with actually less.

[Jet915]

Lunardi has PC, Marquette and X in the last 4 byes category, should be comfortably in.

[cu blujs]

While we might only get a couple to the sweet sixteen, I think more than two get past the first day. I go back to the non-conference performance of BE teams against other P5 programs. We faired pretty well. I am cautiously optimistically hoping that at least 4 and maybe 5 get past first round. From there, who knows.

[Bill Marsh]

Lunardi has PC, Marquette and X in the last 4 byes category, should be comfortably in.

I'd find that reassuring if Lunardi was the one actually making the decisions.

[Bill Marsh]

The only thing with the units is if the injuries hadn't happened and conference only had gotten 4 in- but they were seeded much higher- the odds are gotten at least 3 sweet 16 teams and at least 1 elite 8 team. So say 1 elite 8, 3 sweet 16, 4 final 32's. That with the 4 teams would have been 12 units.

now lets say Nova goes elite 8, Butler sweet 16, but the other 5 knocked out rd 1. That's 12 units.

End of the day, would wind up with pretty close to the same number of units the conference would have gotten had the 2 injuries not happened. If Nova or Butler got upset, may wind up with actually less.

Hypothetically.

[stever20]

While we might only get a couple to the sweet sixteen, I think more than two get past the first day. I go back to the non-conference performance of BE teams against other P5 programs. We faired pretty well. I am cautiously optimistically hoping that at least 4 and maybe 5 get past first round. From there, who knows.

Creighton and Xavier were done though with a healthy roster.

So a lot of the OOC damage was done by Nova, Butler, Creighton, and Xavier.
Nova- 4 Ken Pom A level wins, and 1 B level win
Butler- 5 A 2 B
Creighton- 1 A 3 B
Xavier- 1 A 2 B best win- Clemson
PC 3 B- best win- Rhode Island
Marquette 2 A best win- Vanderbilt
Seton Hall 2 A 1 B best win- South Carolina

So the only win for the other 4 teams even including Xavier that would be close to what they're going to see in the tourney rd 1 is Seton Hall's win over South Carolina.