Bracketology '17

[stever20]

Lunardi's update for today-
Providence- 10 MW vs Okla St, Louisville in Indianapolis
Villanova- 1 E vs Miami/Mich rd 2 in Buffalo(#2 overall)
Seton Hall 10 E vs Maryland, Baylor in Tulsa
Creighton 7 S vs Mich St, Kentucky in Indianapolis
Xavier 12 W(FF) vs USC, SMU, Duke in Greenville
Butler 3 W vs Iowa St/WF/Ill St in Milwaukee
Marquette 10 W vs South Carolina, Oregon in Sacramento

Looking at it- looks like he's got Seton Hall at either 37 or 38 right now- one of the 2 highest 10's. Providence is at 39 and Marquette is at 40. So it's not going to take much to propel them up to the 9 line.

it could get even worse quite frankly if Providence beats Creighton. Could easily see the 1 and 3 seeds and then 3 teams in the 8/9 range(PC, Creighton, along with the Marquette/Seton Hall winner). Then 2 others in the first 4(Xavier and the Marquette/Seton Hall loser).

so if what Lunardi has is what it is- worst case scenario would be wins by Providence and Seton Hall. We would have Providence, Creighton, and Seton Hall almost definitely in the 8/9 range. Marquette and Xavier would likely be in the first 4.

Also going back to our discussion about 1 seeds....

sure 1 seeds may not make the final 4, but they definitely go a whole lot further than lower seeds. I mean you take it out to elite 8's, and #1 seeds have gone that far 16/28 times in your 7 year period. 2 seeds have gone 14/28 times. 3 and 4's have both gone 6/28 times in that period. 5-11 seeds combined have gone to the elite 8 only 14/28 times. No matter how you want to spin it, seeds matter.

[Bill Marsh]

Lunardi's update for today-
Providence- 10 MW vs Okla St, Louisville in Indianapolis
Villanova- 1 E vs Miami/Mich rd 2 in Buffalo(#2 overall)
Seton Hall 10 E vs Maryland, Baylor in Tulsa
Creighton 7 S vs Mich St, Kentucky in Indianapolis
Xavier 12 W(FF) vs USC, SMU, Duke in Greenville
Butler 3 W vs Iowa St/WF/Ill St in Milwaukee
Marquette 10 W vs South Carolina, Oregon in Sacramento

Looking at it- looks like he's got Seton Hall at either 37 or 38 right now- one of the 2 highest 10's. Providence is at 39 and Marquette is at 40. So it's not going to take much to propel them up to the 9 line.

it could get even worse quite frankly if Providence beats Creighton. Could easily see the 1 and 3 seeds and then 3 teams in the 8/9 range(PC, Creighton, along with the Marquette/Seton Hall winner). Then 2 others in the first 4(Xavier and the Marquette/Seton Hall loser).

so if what Lunardi has is what it is- worst case scenario would be wins by Providence and Seton Hall. We would have Providence, Creighton, and Seton Hall almost definitely in the 8/9 range. Marquette and Xavier would likely be in the first 4.

Also going back to our discussion about 1 seeds....

sure 1 seeds may not make the final 4, but they definitely go a whole lot further than lower seeds. I mean you take it out to elite 8's, and #1 seeds have gone that far 16/28 times in your 7 year period. 2 seeds have gone 14/28 times. 3 and 4's have both gone 6/28 times in that period. 5-11 seeds combined have gone to the elite 8 only 14/28 times. No matter how you want to spin it, seeds matter.

Stever, they didn't go further because they're 1-seeds. Teams progress because they play better. In the last 7 years, the committee's have had a harder time identifying better teams than they did before 2010.

5-11 seeds have gone to the Elite 8 ONLY 14/28 times? Only? 14 is a lot. They're not supposed to go the Elite 8 at all. They're not even supposed to go to the Sweet 16. Zero is the prediction.

[kayako]

Looking at it- looks like he's got Seton Hall at either 37 or 38 right now- one of the 2 highest 10's. Providence is at 39 and Marquette is at 40. So it's not going to take much to propel them up to the 9 line.

Yeah, definitely want to avoid playing UNC or Kansas in their backyard. But if the Pac-12 winner is #2 out west, it's still a crappy draw whether 8, 9, or 10. Oregon in Sacramento or Gonzaga in Salt Lake City? Terrible. Looking at likely 3 and 6 seeds, it looks like #11 is the place to be. Of course, being in that area risks your team of heading to the wrong tournament.

[GumbyDamnit!]

That Indy regional is going to be interesting. Expect both UK and L'ville to be playing there. So let's say a BE school sees L'vile in the 3rd Round. Make no mistake that the huge UK crowd cheers for their Cats and whoever is playing L'ville. So maybe that won't be such a disadvantage as some think.

Also I would imagine if X ends up in Dayton for a play-in, then they can't expect much hospitality from the locals.

[flyerlax06]

Providence, Big East Bracketology Update 3/6/17

[kayako]

Also I would imagine if X ends up in Dayton for a play-in, then they can't expect much hospitality from the locals.

I'm kind of 50/50 on this. How was the crowd when they lost to NC State a few years ago? I'd think enough Xavier fans would make it close to a neutral court atmosphere.

[stever20]

Lunardi's update for today-
Providence- 10 MW vs Okla St, Louisville in Indianapolis
Villanova- 1 E vs Miami/Mich rd 2 in Buffalo(#2 overall)
Seton Hall 10 E vs Maryland, Baylor in Tulsa
Creighton 7 S vs Mich St, Kentucky in Indianapolis
Xavier 12 W(FF) vs USC, SMU, Duke in Greenville
Butler 3 W vs Iowa St/WF/Ill St in Milwaukee
Marquette 10 W vs South Carolina, Oregon in Sacramento

Looking at it- looks like he's got Seton Hall at either 37 or 38 right now- one of the 2 highest 10's. Providence is at 39 and Marquette is at 40. So it's not going to take much to propel them up to the 9 line.

it could get even worse quite frankly if Providence beats Creighton. Could easily see the 1 and 3 seeds and then 3 teams in the 8/9 range(PC, Creighton, along with the Marquette/Seton Hall winner). Then 2 others in the first 4(Xavier and the Marquette/Seton Hall loser).

so if what Lunardi has is what it is- worst case scenario would be wins by Providence and Seton Hall. We would have Providence, Creighton, and Seton Hall almost definitely in the 8/9 range. Marquette and Xavier would likely be in the first 4.

Also going back to our discussion about 1 seeds....

sure 1 seeds may not make the final 4, but they definitely go a whole lot further than lower seeds. I mean you take it out to elite 8's, and #1 seeds have gone that far 16/28 times in your 7 year period. 2 seeds have gone 14/28 times. 3 and 4's have both gone 6/28 times in that period. 5-11 seeds combined have gone to the elite 8 only 14/28 times. No matter how you want to spin it, seeds matter.

Steven, they didn't go further because they're 1-seeds. Teams progress because they play better. In the last 7 years, the committee's have had a harder time identifying better teams than they did before 2010.

5-11 seeds have gone to the Elite 8 ONLY 14/28 times? Only? 14 is a lot. They're not supposed to go the Elite 8 at all. They're not even supposed to go to the Sweet 16. Zero is the prediction.

well 14/28 was actually wrong on my part. It's actually 14/196(the 28 5's, 6's, 7's, 8's, etc.). So 1 seeds made elite 8 16/28- or 57%. 2's 14/28- or 50%. 3 and 4's- 6/28 each- or 21.4%. Teams seeded 5-11 made it 14/196- or 7.1% of the time. Everyone else 0. Individually, no seed lower than 4 got in the elite 8 more than 3/28 times- or 11%. If you want to act like seeds don't matter, that's on you. But the data clearly shows the teams that are seeded higher do better in the tourney, which they should. A lot of times they get home court like advantages. I mean look this year. Kansas may get to play in Tulsa followed by Kansas City to make the final 4. Kentucky may get Indianapolis and Memphis. That's a HUGE advantage.

[Bill Marsh]

Lunardi's update for today-
Providence- 10 MW vs Okla St, Louisville in Indianapolis
Villanova- 1 E vs Miami/Mich rd 2 in Buffalo(#2 overall)
Seton Hall 10 E vs Maryland, Baylor in Tulsa
Creighton 7 S vs Mich St, Kentucky in Indianapolis
Xavier 12 W(FF) vs USC, SMU, Duke in Greenville
Butler 3 W vs Iowa St/WF/Ill St in Milwaukee
Marquette 10 W vs South Carolina, Oregon in Sacramento

Looking at it- looks like he's got Seton Hall at either 37 or 38 right now- one of the 2 highest 10's. Providence is at 39 and Marquette is at 40. So it's not going to take much to propel them up to the 9 line.

it could get even worse quite frankly if Providence beats Creighton. Could easily see the 1 and 3 seeds and then 3 teams in the 8/9 range(PC, Creighton, along with the Marquette/Seton Hall winner). Then 2 others in the first 4(Xavier and the Marquette/Seton Hall loser).

so if what Lunardi has is what it is- worst case scenario would be wins by Providence and Seton Hall. We would have Providence, Creighton, and Seton Hall almost definitely in the 8/9 range. Marquette and Xavier would likely be in the first 4.

Also going back to our discussion about 1 seeds....

sure 1 seeds may not make the final 4, but they definitely go a whole lot further than lower seeds. I mean you take it out to elite 8's, and #1 seeds have gone that far 16/28 times in your 7 year period. 2 seeds have gone 14/28 times. 3 and 4's have both gone 6/28 times in that period. 5-11 seeds combined have gone to the elite 8 only 14/28 times. No matter how you want to spin it, seeds matter.

Steven, they didn't go further because they're 1-seeds. Teams progress because they play better. In the last 7 years, the committee's have had a harder time identifying better teams than they did before 2010.

5-11 seeds have gone to the Elite 8 ONLY 14/28 times? Only? 14 is a lot. They're not supposed to go the Elite 8 at all. They're not even supposed to go to the Sweet 16. Zero is the prediction.

well 14/28 was actually wrong on my part. It's actually 14/196(the 28 5's, 6's, 7's, 8's, etc.). So 1 seeds made elite 8 16/28- or 57%. 2's 14/28- or 50%. 3 and 4's- 6/28 each- or 21.4%. Teams seeded 5-11 made it 14/196- or 7.1% of the time. Everyone else 0. Individually, no seed lower than 4 got in the elite 8 more than 3/28 times- or 11%. If you want to act like seeds don't matter, that's on you. But the data clearly shows the teams that are seeded higher do better in the tourney, which they should. A lot of times they get home court like advantages. I mean look this year. Kansas may get to play in Tulsa followed by Kansas City to make the final 4. Kentucky may get Indianapolis and Memphis. That's a HUGE advantage.

I don't care whether it's out of 28 or 196. They're long shots. They're not supposed to be there at all. The further down the seed list, the lower the odds. What's been demonstrated is that teams that play well win games regardless of their seed.

You're acting like a correlation between seeds and winning is causative. It isn't. It's the first thing we were taught in Stat 101. Correlation doesn't = causation.

As you know, the committee made the decision a number of years ago to keep higher seeds closer to home. It's why they went to the pods. I understand that. But I also know that teams have won when they've been sent to the other side of the country. Some coaches prefer that. It's nice for the fans, but unless a team is playing on one of its actual home courts, there's not much of an advantage.

[stever20]

6 of the 14 teams in the last 7 years to make the elite 8 made it in 2010 and 2011. So last 5 years- only 8 teams seeded lower than 4 made the elite 8.

Also the average seed in the elite 8 in 2010 and 2011 was 3.81. Last 5 years it has been 3.25.

Also would argue that 2 of the 8 teams since 2012 that made the elite 8 were grossly underseeded. UConn and Kentucky in 2014. No way either of those should have ever gotten seeded as a 7 or 8.

The big difference IMO is that the top 4 teams have a much easier go of it in rd 1. Top 4 seeds historically since 85 have gone 457-55 in rd 1. .893 winning percentage. 5-8 seeds in rd 1 go 306-206. .598. You can be a good team, still get knocked out because you are playing really good teams right off the bat.

And your comment about the home courts is a joke. I mean, I looked at North Carolina/Providence game recap last year from ESPN- and with that win- UNC improved to 33-1 playing in the NCAA Tourney in the state of North Carolina. with 29 straight wins. I'm sure Duke is pretty close to the same way. If you think there's no advantage for Kansas getting to play in KC- I think you are wrong.

[FriarJ]

If PC was to be seede against UNC in the second round again I would scream.