Bracketology '17

[herodotus]

Since 2010, only 8 out of 28 1-seeds have made it to the Four Four. Meanwhile 9 teams seeded 5 or lower have made it to the Final Four. Here's the breakdown:

5 - 2
7 - 2
8 - 2
9 - 1
10-1
11-1

true- but when you combine with the 2's half of the final 4 teams have been top 2 seeds. Add in top 4(the first 2 round protected seeds)- and you are up to 19 of the 28- or nearly 3/4. Oh and kind of interesting that you did your thing at 7 years. looking at it for 10 years which is you know a bit more of a natural number.... 16/40 1 seeds made the final 4. Add to that 9 2 seeds and 25/40 have been top 2 seeds. 31/40 have been top 4 seeds.

Yes, that's my point. That you are less likely to make it to the Final 4 as a 1-seed than you are as a 2 despite having a more favorable path to get there and despite being rated as the better teams.

Should it be a surprise that more top 4 seeds make it than those below? What's a surprise is that any outside the top 4 make it to the F4. And it's not just a fuke team or two. It's 9 in just 7 years. The committee goes to excruciating lengths to identify the best teams. How could they get it so wrong?

I was focusing on the extremes - i.e. the 1-seeds vs everyone outside the top 4 because that's the starkest comparison. Those outside the top 4 have been slightly more successful getting to the Final 4 in recent years than the 1-seeds have. It's
Not supposed to work that way, is it?

I focused on 2010 and beyond because that's when the pattern changed. You're right that before 2010, it was very predictable and had been for years. But starting in 2010, a couple of other things changed in addition to the diminished success of 1-seeds:

1. Mid majors began to get to the Final Four - 5 in the last 7 years. Consider that between 1996 (UMass) and 2010 (Butler) George Mason was the only mid major to get to the Final 4. But in just the last 7 years, more mid majors have gotten to the Final 4 than in the 15 years before 2010 - 2.5 times many.

2. The C7 finally won another NC after 30 years. The C7 is a group that had won 3 NC in the first post-UCLA decade but then declined to the point that they didn't get a single team to the F4 from 1990-2002.

Seven years is long enough not to be a fluke of an oddball season or two. Something different is happening here.

Marquette reached the Final Four as a mid major out of CUSA in 2003. Actually, you can divide the leagues below the power leagues into 3 categories, and call them what you will. Category one would be the A10 AAC etc. These are the tweener leagues. They exhibit some of the characteristics of the power leagues, but not enough to be regarded as such. In an up year, one of these leagues might be better than the worst power league, such as when the Pac 12 was down a few years back. These leagues usually land multiple bids, and frequently have ranked teams. The second category would include leagues like the CAA, and the MAC. These are the true mid majors. These are usually one bid leagues, but will occasionally get a second team. Their teams regularly pull upsets in the tournament, but rarely go beyond the Sweet 16. The third category is low majors. These leagues are frequently called mid major, but they're not. The MEAC, NEC, etc. These are the one bid leagues. They get the 15, and 16 seeds, are never ranked, and rarely win games in the tournament.

[kayako]

what is kind of strange tonight- Xavier fans are going to have to gulp sort of root for Cincy. A Cincy loss tonight puts Houston as a LOT more of a threat to make the tourney.

Houston lost big, and Cal's down by 20 to Utah at the half. If it holds it's been a good day for Xavier. Just relax and beat Depaul Saturday.

[Bill Marsh]

true- but when you combine with the 2's half of the final 4 teams have been top 2 seeds. Add in top 4(the first 2 round protected seeds)- and you are up to 19 of the 28- or nearly 3/4. Oh and kind of interesting that you did your thing at 7 years. looking at it for 10 years which is you know a bit more of a natural number.... 16/40 1 seeds made the final 4. Add to that 9 2 seeds and 25/40 have been top 2 seeds. 31/40 have been top 4 seeds.

Yes, that's my point. That you are less likely to make it to the Final 4 as a 1-seed than you are as a 2 despite having a more favorable path to get there and despite being rated as the better teams.

Should it be a surprise that more top 4 seeds make it than those below? What's a surprise is that any outside the top 4 make it to the F4. And it's not just a fuke team or two. It's 9 in just 7 years. The committee goes to excruciating lengths to identify the best teams. How could they get it so wrong?

I was focusing on the extremes - i.e. the 1-seeds vs everyone outside the top 4 because that's the starkest comparison. Those outside the top 4 have been slightly more successful getting to the Final 4 in recent years than the 1-seeds have. It's
Not supposed to work that way, is it?

I focused on 2010 and beyond because that's when the pattern changed. You're right that before 2010, it was very predictable and had been for years. But starting in 2010, a couple of other things changed in addition to the diminished success of 1-seeds:

1. Mid majors began to get to the Final Four - 5 in the last 7 years. Consider that between 1996 (UMass) and 2010 (Butler) George Mason was the only mid major to get to the Final 4. But in just the last 7 years, more mid majors have gotten to the Final 4 than in the 15 years before 2010 - 2.5 times many.

2. The C7 finally won another NC after 30 years. The C7 is a group that had won 3 NC in the first post-UCLA decade but then declined to the point that they didn't get a single team to the F4 from 1990-2002.

Seven years is long enough not to be a fluke of an oddball season or two. Something different is happening here.

Marquette reached the Final Four as a mid major out of CUSA in 2003.

Good catch. I overlooked Marquette. Nonetheless the trend remains the same. Only 3 mid majors (UMass, Marquette, GMU) to thr F4 in 17 years (1993-2009) while 5 have made it in the past 7 years.

[stever20]

so you are defining mid-majors as not being in the 6 power conferences at the point of their appearance.... got it.

ok- from 93-09-
1996 UMass
1998 Utah
2003 Marquette
2005 Louisville
2006 George Mason
2008 Memphis

so that right there would be 6 teams. And really this period of 7 years to get 5 is very similar to the prior 7 years getting 4.

avg seed of final 4 team
03-09 2.32
10-16 3.68
so been a bit more parity- but not by that much. Also last 2 years avg is back to 3.13.

[milksteak]

Does anyone else just completely skip over Stever's posts when you see they have a bunch of numbers?

[TrueBlueJay]

Does anyone else just completely skip over Stever's posts when you see they have a bunch of numbers?

I've skipped about 7,750 of his posts.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Bracket Matrix.com/ – last updated Thursday March 2nd 6:45 PM.

Seed (Overall) Team – No. of Brackets out of 123 in Matrix

#1 (1) Villanova – 123
#3 (10) Butler - 123
#6 (22) Creighton – 123
#10 (38) Xavier – 118
#10 (40) Marquette – 117
#11 (41) Seton Hall – 119
#11 (42) Providence – 113

The current update shows no Big East teams playing at UD Arena.

[Jet915]

Bracket Matrix.com/ – last updated Thursday March 2nd 6:45 PM.

Seed (Overall) Team – No. of Brackets out of 123 in Matrix

#1 (1) Villanova – 123
#3 (10) Butler - 123
#6 (22) Creighton – 123
#10 (38) Xavier – 118
#10 (40) Marquette – 117
#11 (41) Seton Hall – 119
#11 (42) Providence – 113

The current update shows no Big East teams playing at UD Arena.

That would be pretty awesome if all Big East teams avoided the 8/9 game.

[Bill Marsh]

so you are defining mid-majors as not being in the 6 power conferences at the point of their appearance.... got it.

ok- from 93-09-
1996 UMass
1998 Utah
2003 Marquette
2005 Louisville
2006 George Mason
2008 Memphis

so that right there would be 6 teams. And really this period of 7 years to get 5 is very similar to the prior 7 years getting 4.

avg seed of final 4 team
03-09 2.32
10-16 3.68
so been a bit more parity- but not by that much. Also last 2 years avg is back to 3.13.

Good point. Going off the top of my head, I forgot about Utah, Louisville, and Memphis.

Maybe mid majors isn't the best way to define it, but there's something different in the air when first timers like Butler, VCU, and Wichita State in addition to GMU a few years earlier are getting to the F4 than when schools with a history like Utah, Louisville, and Memphis are getting there. (I know about Wichita St in 1965, but for a whole lot of reasons that shouldn't be counted. But that's another thread.) When a C7 school wins a NC, reviving the energy of 30 years earlier, things are different.

If you don't see it that way, fine by me. I'm just getting a different vibe than you are.

[stever20]

so you are defining mid-majors as not being in the 6 power conferences at the point of their appearance.... got it.

ok- from 93-09-
1996 UMass
1998 Utah
2003 Marquette
2005 Louisville
2006 George Mason
2008 Memphis

so that right there would be 6 teams. And really this period of 7 years to get 5 is very similar to the prior 7 years getting 4.

avg seed of final 4 team
03-09 2.32
10-16 3.68
so been a bit more parity- but not by that much. Also last 2 years avg is back to 3.13.

Good point. Going off the top of my head, I forgot about Utah, Louisville, and Memphis.

Maybe mid majors isn't the best way to define it, but there's something different in the air when first timers like Butler, VCU, and Wichita State in addition to GMU a few years earlier are getting to the F4 than when schools with a history like Utah, Louisville, and Memphis are getting there. (I know about Wichita St in 1965, but for a whole lot of reasons that shouldn't be counted. But that's another thread.) When a C7 school wins a NC, reviving the energy of 30 years earlier, things are different.

If you don't see it that way, fine by me. I'm just getting a different vibe than you are.

One thing I'd say is that it's kind of calmed down a lot. I mean you are counting UConn as one of the mid majors. IF you remove that, the only real true mid-major was Wichita in the last 5 years- after 6 year period from 2006-11 having GMU, Memphis, Butler, Butler, and VCU.

Last 2 years thing have kind of shifted back. Had 4 1's and 2 2's make the final 4- after the 5 year period from 10-14 only having 4 1's and 4 2's make the final 4. So that's kind of different. It'll be interesting to see if that trend sticks.