UConn to the Big East? Rumors and Discussion Thread...

[GoldenWarrior11]

Excellent discussions on this topic. Bill Marsh points out some salient facts in his discussion on finances.

Including:

Here's the thing. UConn loses a lot of money by leaving the AAC:

1. They lose all of the football playoff revenue that goes back to conferences for distribution to their members. About $1.4 million annually.
2. They lose their share of any bowl money that is shared within the conference.
3. They would have to pay a $10 million exit fee.
4. They would leave behind their share of any NCAA tournament money earned by the AAC in the previous 6 years. I'm sure that the BE would not give them a share of any tournament money earned while they were not a member of the conference. So, it would take years for them to wait for a full BE share to replace the tournament money that they had been getting from the AAC.

Bottom line is always dinars...Might not the Huskies be better off remaining in the American?

But, at what point - and purely only regarding football - does playing schools like Tulane, East Carolina, SMU, Houston, Tulsa, UCF, USF and Memphis (again, only in football) become a deterrent for fan interest and support, especially if/when UConn cannot compete with those schools in football? When, and perhaps it is never, does the discussion lead to possibly cutting the cord on just the AAC, but football in general in order protect its overall athletic program? I highly doubt that UConn would favor finishing at the bottom of the AAC every year in football purely because they could potentially get some extra dough from the CFP.

Again, I am not advocating one side or the other here. From purely an ethical standpoint, does a university prioritize the needs and benefit of one program (football) at the expense of the rest of the varsity sports? Should an athletics program send its Olympics programs and student-athletes halfway across the country - namely in the Southeast and Southwest - in order to benefit football?

[Bill Marsh]

Excellent discussions on this topic. Bill Marsh points out some salient facts in his discussion on finances.

Including:

Here's the thing. UConn loses a lot of money by leaving the AAC:

1. They lose all of the football playoff revenue that goes back to conferences for distribution to their members. About $1.4 million annually.
2. They lose their share of any bowl money that is shared within the conference.
3. They would have to pay a $10 million exit fee.
4. They would leave behind their share of any NCAA tournament money earned by the AAC in the previous 6 years. I'm sure that the BE would not give them a share of any tournament money earned while they were not a member of the conference. So, it would take years for them to wait for a full BE share to replace the tournament money that they had been getting from the AAC.

Bottom line is always dinars...Might not the Huskies be better off remaining in the American?

But, at what point - and purely only regarding football - does playing schools like Tulane, East Carolina, SMU, Houston, Tulsa, UCF, USF and Memphis (again, only in football) become a deterrent for fan interest and support, especially if/when UConn cannot compete with those schools in football? When, and perhaps it is never, does the discussion lead to possibly cutting the cord on just the AAC, but football in general in order protect its overall athletic program? I highly doubt that UConn would favor finishing at the bottom of the AAC every year in football purely because they could potentially get some extra dough from the CFP.

Again, I am not advocating one side or the other here. From purely an ethical standpoint, does a university prioritize the needs and benefit of one program (football) at the expense of the rest of the varsity sports? Should an athletics program send its Olympics programs and student-athletes halfway across the country - namely in the Southeast and Southwest - in order to benefit football?

That really is the issue. You hit the nail on the head.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

From purely an ethical standpoint, does a university prioritize the needs and benefit of one program (football) at the expense of the rest of the varsity sports?

Ethics has been replaced by political expediency.

UConn average home football attendance: 26,796 • UConn average home basketball attendance: 8,446

UConn’s football attendance is more than three times its basketball attendance.

In Connecticut, State Legislators who publicly advocate UConn dropping big-time football are quickly voted out of office.

Democrats Appear to Win Majority in Connecticut State Senate – New York Times – November 6, 1996

The victories will give the Democrats at least a 19-to-17 majority when the Legislature convenes in January, with Democrats defeating two freshmen Republican Senators: Kevin Rennie of South Windsor and Paul Munns of Glastonbury.

Twenty years later, Kevin Rennie is still campaigning (albeit from the cheap seats):

Kevin Rennie: UConn Football Is Out Of Its League - Kevin Rennie, Contact Reporter, Hartford Courant – January 5, 2017

Let us consider the power of second thoughts and hope some of those who are guardians of a public trust will join us. It requires us to recognize an uncomfortable truth. The University of Connecticut's attempts to succeed in FBS, formerly Division I-A, football have been an extended and expensive failure.

We all make mistakes, but not often on the scale that accompanies a university's grandiose grab for big time glory. We all know what it's like to make some changes, maybe even retrench. Examination and change are at the heart of the liberal education that enriches the lives of UConn students and benefits the rest of us.

The people who lead Connecticut's institutions have arrived at another reckoning on how to manage the state's finances for the next two years that begin with a new budget in July. There will probably be retrenchments in programs that matter in vulnerable people's lives. Our largest state institutions cannot be immune from what's ahead.

Treating UConn football as a sport rather than a religion would be an appropriate start.

If more Connecticut voters agreed with Kevin Rennie, he would still be a State Senator.

[Bill Marsh]

From purely an ethical standpoint, does a university prioritize the needs and benefit of one program (football) at the expense of the rest of the varsity sports?

Ethics has been replaced by political expediency.

UConn average home football attendance: 26,796 • UConn average home basketball attendance: 8,446

UConn’s football attendance is more than three times its basketball attendance.

Agree that Kevin Ronnie is a dope who is out of touch with his constituents.

With regard to attendance, it's true that football draws more fans PER GAME. But budgets are built around total revenue, not per game revenue, and basketball plays 2-3 times more games. Football drew a total of 187,000 fans this year. Basketball has drawn 108,000 fans so far this year with more games to go. Even still,in an off year for basketball, it will not approach football's total attendance this season. But 3 years ago, in a more typical season, basketball drew 182,000 fans, which was very similar to this year's football attendance.

There is little doubt that basketball attendance has declined in the AAC. UConn hoops used to average 12-13,000 fans per game in the Big East. That decline is obviously what's motivating talk of leaving the AAC.

[phphphonograph]

Excellent discussions on this topic. Bill Marsh points out some salient facts in his discussion on finances.

Including:

Here's the thing. UConn loses a lot of money by leaving the AAC:

1. They lose all of the football playoff revenue that goes back to conferences for distribution to their members. About $1.4 million annually.
2. They lose their share of any bowl money that is shared within the conference.
3. They would have to pay a $10 million exit fee.
4. They would leave behind their share of any NCAA tournament money earned by the AAC in the previous 6 years. I'm sure that the BE would not give them a share of any tournament money earned while they were not a member of the conference. So, it would take years for them to wait for a full BE share to replace the tournament money that they had been getting from the AAC.

Bottom line is always dinars...Might not the Huskies be better off remaining in the American?

Just was doing some math. UCONN loses about 1.5 million in FBS playoff revenue, they lose just under approx 20m in NCAA credits, they have to pay a portion of the 10m exit fee (usually negotiated or with noticed is lowered), they lose about 2 million from the American's tv deal. so they sum an approximate loss of 33.5 million.

Now to look at what they stand to gain, mostly conservative estimates. UCONN Football would sign a TV deal worth approx 1m annually. Can received the same portion of FBS playoff revenue as G5 if they are an independent or join a conference so about 1.5m. They would get at least 4m (if FOX deal stays the same per school, which is a guarantee if the BIG EAST expands up to 12 ~ I think UCONN BBALL could increase the value to 4.5 or so at least but thats just me). So as you can see they still have about 27m of expected revenue to find.

Memphis successfully negotiated a portion of their credits in exchange for games in football and basketball, I expect that UCONN could do the same and the whole 10m fee could either be an interest free loan from the BIG EAST or negotiated down in court or moved down with notice or through exchanges of games in MBB. I would expect about half of that to be recoverable. Based on current BIG EAST credits they could make that 13M up in just about 6 years with no football success to gain more $$$. With 5.5m in TV revenue each year (compared to 2m) and credits kicking in slowly they'd be able to make up 13M in about 7 years. Not a bad ROI to realign if needed. Obviously football success and bball success can speed up that timeline even further.

[Bill Marsh]

Excellent discussions on this topic. Bill Marsh points out some salient facts in his discussion on finances.

Including:

Here's the thing. UConn loses a lot of money by leaving the AAC:

1. They lose all of the football playoff revenue that goes back to conferences for distribution to their members. About $1.4 million annually.
2. They lose their share of any bowl money that is shared within the conference.
3. They would have to pay a $10 million exit fee.
4. They would leave behind their share of any NCAA tournament money earned by the AAC in the previous 6 years. I'm sure that the BE would not give them a share of any tournament money earned while they were not a member of the conference. So, it would take years for them to wait for a full BE share to replace the tournament money that they had been getting from the AAC.

Bottom line is always dinars...Might not the Huskies be better off remaining in the American?

Just was doing some math. UCONN loses about 1.5 million in FBS playoff revenue, they lose just under approx 20m in NCAA credits, they have to pay a portion of the 10m exit fee (usually negotiated or with noticed is lowered), they lose about 2 million from the American's tv deal. so they sum an approximate loss of 33.5 million.

Now to look at what they stand to gain, mostly conservative estimates. UCONN Football would sign a TV deal worth approx 1m annually. Can received the same portion of FBS playoff revenue as G5 if they are an independent or join a conference so about 1.5m. They would get at least 4m (if FOX deal stays the same per school, which is a guarantee if the BIG EAST expands up to 12 ~ I think UCONN BBALL could increase the value to 4.5 or so at least but thats just me). So as you can see they still have about 27m of expected revenue to find.

Memphis successfully negotiated a portion of their credits in exchange for games in football and basketball, I expect that UCONN could do the same and the whole 10m fee could either be an interest free loan from the BIG EAST or negotiated down in court or moved down with notice or through exchanges of games in MBB. I would expect about half of that to be recoverable. Based on current BIG EAST credits they could make that 13M up in just about 6 years with no football success to gain more $$$. With 5.5m in TV revenue each year (compared to 2m) and credits kicking in slowly they'd be able to make up 13M in about 7 years. Not a bad ROI to realign if needed. Obviously football success and bball success can speed up that timeline even further.

That is an exceedingly optimistic view of what UConn's finances would be if they maintain FBS football but leave the AAC. You've mixed together annual payments with total NCAA credits with total exit fee. Apples and oranges. Let's take it point by point.

1. Agree that they lose $1.5 million in football playoff revenue sharing this year. That's a number that will increase annually. They also lose their share in conference revenue sharing from bowls. AAC members went to 7 bowls which paid a combined total of $6.9 million in 2015, or about $600,000 per conference member. I don't have 2016 payouts, but they were probably higher. So, the total loss from bowl revenue was $2.1 million in 2016-17. Secondly, they do not get $1.5 million in bowl revenue sharing as an independent. This year independents each got $300,000 (except Notre Dame). They can get back the $1.5 million if they join a conference. But what conference could they join? The MAC has made it clear that they're no longer interesteded in football-only memberships. If not the MAC, then who?

2. UConn Football is worth $1 million all by itself? They averaged 28,000 in home attendance for the past 3 years. They've been a bad team. I don't know where the audience is coming from to justify $1million annually just for football. Fact is that right now football revenue from TV as an independent is unknown. As an independent, they would have no bowl tie-ins and with a bad football team, they wouldn't have even been bowl eligible this year. No one knows when they will be. As an independent, they are looking at an annual loss of $1.8 million from current football revenues. In addition, they lose the potential of a share of in a $20 million windfall in a year when their conference might send a member to a Big 6 bowl.

3. If the Big East reopens its contract with Fox, negotiations can go either way. Assuming that a UConn addition would bump the contract up to $4.5 is unrealistic when ratings don't even justify the current contract figures. The best the Big East could hope for is to maintain the current numbers per member. They also open the door to a reduction.

4. The $10 million exit fee I'd $10 million owed to the AAC. You can't wish it away. They can hope to negotiate it down, but what would be the basis for that? The other members of the conference paid steep entrance fees just a few years ago to gain entrance to a conference that proved to be a mirage. It didn't have the Membership they were promised. By the time they joined, West Virginia, Pitt, Syracuse, and Louisville were all gone. I doubt that they'll be in any mood to be benevolent to UConn.

5. I will accept your number of $20 million of lost NCAA credits until I have a chance to check it. The problem with getting Big East credits is that the Big East will not give them access to credits that were earned when UConn was not part of the conference. Remember that the C7 left $100 million behind in the settlement with the football schools when they split. UConn was a prime beneficiary of all that money. After the C7 left those NCAA credits behind for UConn and the rest, they will not be turning over a share of their own credits to UConn. So that lost $20 mill represents an average negative of $-3.2 million a year for the next 6 years. Gradually they would gain an increasing share of BE credits, but that will take time.

What I see is that UConn gain a $4.2 million TV contract to replace its $2 million deal, but would lose $1.8 million in football bowl revenues for a net gain of only $400,000. However, the short term losswould be the $10 million exit fee + the $20 million in NCAA credits. Spread over 6 years until they get a full share of NCAA basketball credits, that's a loss of $5 million per year offset by a gain of only $400,000.

[Bill Marsh]

I calculated the NCAA basketball tournament credits that UConn would lose access to by leaving the AAC. Given the value of a unit @$260,000 in 2016 and assuming that UConn were to join the Big East for the 2017-18 season, the lost value of the credits would be $37.2 million over 6 years. Divided among 11 conference members, the total amount per member would be $3.4 million, or an average of $570,000 annually over 6 years. The actual amount lost will be higher than that because the value of a unit increases each year and we don't know what that increase will be. But it certainly makes sense to round up to $600,000 per year as a rough estimate.

The bottom line is that UConn's losses now become $2 million TV contract + $1.8 million in net football bowl revenue + $0.6 million in annual basketball revenue = $4.4 million annually for the first 6 years. Replaced by the $4.2 million BE TV contract, the net loss is $200,000 per year for 6 years. Add to that the $10 million exit fee, which is unlikely to change. What is unknown is how much revenue UConn football can generate via its own TV deal as an independent - if any.

When looking at long term revenues after UConn is earning full NCAA tournament credits from the BE, we're looking at roughly comparable revenue streams $4.2 million BE TV. + $0.3 football playoff revenue = $4.5 million revenue vs $2 million AAC TV + $2.1 million football playoff/bowl revenue = $4.1 million. That's slightly more favorable in the BE. What makes them comparable is the fact that football playoff & bowl revenue predictably increases annually while the TV contracts retain the same annual value for the length of the contract. So the gap will narrow.

Bottom line is that UConn would lose $11+ million short term and be no better off financially in the long term.

[NJRedman]

From purely an ethical standpoint, does a university prioritize the needs and benefit of one program (football) at the expense of the rest of the varsity sports?

Ethics has been replaced by political expediency.

UConn average home football attendance: 26,796 • UConn average home basketball attendance: 8,446

UConn’s football attendance is more than three times its basketball attendance.

In Connecticut, State Legislators who publicly advocate UConn dropping big-time football are quickly voted out of office.

Democrats Appear to Win Majority in Connecticut State Senate – New York Times – November 6, 1996

The victories will give the Democrats at least a 19-to-17 majority when the Legislature convenes in January, with Democrats defeating two freshmen Republican Senators: Kevin Rennie of South Windsor and Paul Munns of Glastonbury.

Twenty years later, Kevin Rennie is still campaigning (albeit from the cheap seats):

Kevin Rennie: UConn Football Is Out Of Its League - Kevin Rennie, Contact Reporter, Hartford Courant – January 5, 2017

Let us consider the power of second thoughts and hope some of those who are guardians of a public trust will join us. It requires us to recognize an uncomfortable truth. The University of Connecticut's attempts to succeed in FBS, formerly Division I-A, football have been an extended and expensive failure.

We all make mistakes, but not often on the scale that accompanies a university's grandiose grab for big time glory. We all know what it's like to make some changes, maybe even retrench. Examination and change are at the heart of the liberal education that enriches the lives of UConn students and benefits the rest of us.

The people who lead Connecticut's institutions have arrived at another reckoning on how to manage the state's finances for the next two years that begin with a new budget in July. There will probably be retrenchments in programs that matter in vulnerable people's lives. Our largest state institutions cannot be immune from what's ahead.

Treating UConn football as a sport rather than a religion would be an appropriate start.

If more Connecticut voters agreed with Kevin Rennie, he would still be a State Senator.

Quite the mental leap you took here. Assuming he was voted out purely because his stance on UConn football. If that were the case then more fans would be at the games. I also don't believe those attendance #'s. Their stadium was dead this season. They probably calculate their attendance like DePaul does.

[Bill Marsh]

One other cost that I forgot about for UConn in switching conferences is th Big East entry fee. Does anyone know what it is?

It was once $2.5 million. I don't know if that's changed. When added to their AAC exit fee, their loss of football playoff/bowl revenue, and their loss of NCAA basketball credits, they would be out somewhere in the neighborhood of $14 million for the first 6 years for a move that would be essentially revenue neutral in the long run as long as they keep FBS football.

[gtmoBlue]

Thanks Bill.

So, as I said earlier...UConn is probably better off staying in the AAC.
Bring on Gonzaga, St Louis, and St Bonaventure. OR
Bring on VCU and Wake Forest or Vandy. OR
Hold at 10 and wait for the next round of football 5 shenanigans.