Bracketology '17

[stever20]

3 big things in todays bracket-
1- Nova got moved off the #1 overall seed. means they would have a tougher road in the final 4 if seeds held- instead of seeing west champion, they'd get like in this bracket UNC or Baylor. Much tougher.
2- Xavier finally got bumped to a 8 seed. They may have to beat Butler on Saturday to really avoid that fate.
3- Butler has a thing where if you are a Butler fan- you are like where do we sign? St Mary's and Baylor to get to the elite 8. golden chance.

The thing with Vanderbilt I think is they have such a brutal schedule. Right now #3 in the country. If they can get enough wins, they're going to be an easy in. I mean, they have 10 top 100 wins right now. If they can beat Miss St on Saturday and split next week with Florida and Kentucky, they will probably get in- even with a 17-14 record- given what the bubble is like.

[Hall2012]

With all the hype around the importance of this 3 game homestand Seton Hall just finished, it's pretty annoying to see that in reality it was simply a nothing to gain, everything to lose situation. Before the Creighton game last Wednesday, the Pirates had an RPI ranking of 48 and were widely considered to be among the last 4 in. Today, after beating Xavier to take the necessary 2 of 3, the Pirates are still ranked 48th and among the last 4 in.

The Creighton win temporarily bumped SHU's RPI up to 40, the Nova loss dropped it back to 48, and the Xavier win changed absolutely nothing. The Pirates go into their next 2 games with the exact same situation. Wins do nothing but avoid losses, and the RPI will likely drop either way.

[PC_Friars]

Most on the PC boards believe we need 20 wins to severely sweat it out on selection Sunday, and most likely 21 wins to feel comfortable.

[MUWarrior1090]

3 big things in todays bracket-
1- Nova got moved off the #1 overall seed. means they would have a tougher road in the final 4 if seeds held- instead of seeing west champion, they'd get like in this bracket UNC or Baylor. Much tougher.
2- Xavier finally got bumped to a 8 seed. They may have to beat Butler on Saturday to really avoid that fate.
3- Butler has a thing where if you are a Butler fan- you are like where do we sign? St Mary's and Baylor to get to the elite 8. golden chance.

The thing with Vanderbilt I think is they have such a brutal schedule. Right now #3 in the country. If they can get enough wins, they're going to be an easy in. I mean, they have 10 top 100 wins right now. If they can beat Miss St on Saturday and split next week with Florida and Kentucky, they will probably get in- even with a 17-14 record- given what the bubble is like.

Marquette has 8 top 100 wins, 6 top 50 wins, and owns a 25 point neutral court win over Vanderbilt. Vandy has 10 top 100 wins, but only 4 top 50 wins. Vandy's worst loss is 248 Missouri. MU's only loss outside the top 100 is 121 SJU. But Vandy only needs 17 wins? And Marquette is out unless they get to 19+ wins?

Just seems like you look for any reason to include other conference's teams, and any reason to exclude Big East teams. Maybe you're just being cautious. I don't know.

[stever20]

3 big things in todays bracket-
1- Nova got moved off the #1 overall seed. means they would have a tougher road in the final 4 if seeds held- instead of seeing west champion, they'd get like in this bracket UNC or Baylor. Much tougher.
2- Xavier finally got bumped to a 8 seed. They may have to beat Butler on Saturday to really avoid that fate.
3- Butler has a thing where if you are a Butler fan- you are like where do we sign? St Mary's and Baylor to get to the elite 8. golden chance.

The thing with Vanderbilt I think is they have such a brutal schedule. Right now #3 in the country. If they can get enough wins, they're going to be an easy in. I mean, they have 10 top 100 wins right now. If they can beat Miss St on Saturday and split next week with Florida and Kentucky, they will probably get in- even with a 17-14 record- given what the bubble is like.

Marquette has 8 top 100 wins, 6 top 50 wins, and owns a 25 point neutral court win over Vanderbilt. Vandy has 10 top 100 wins, but only 4 top 50 wins. Vandy's worst loss is 248 Missouri. MU's only loss outside the top 100 is 121 SJU. But Vandy only needs 17 wins? And Marquette is out unless they get to 19+ wins?

Just seems like you look for any reason to include other conference's teams, and any reason to exclude Big East teams. Maybe you're just being cautious. I don't know.

As of right now-
Marquette has 5 top 50 wins, 8 top 100. #62 SOS and #227 OOC SOS 4-7 away from home
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2017/ ... /Marquette
If they finish at 18-13, they would be at a 67 RPI entering the conf. tourney
Vanderbilt has 4 top 50 wins, 10 top 100. #2 SOS and #1 OOC SOS 6-8 away from home
if they finish at 17-14, they would be at a 41 RPI entering the conf. tourney.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2017/ ... Vanderbilt

Realistically, both would need a win in their conference tourney. Only difference is Marquette might actually need 2 if they finish 7th and see DePaul in rd 1(very possible). Also, Vandy would need theirs over a Georgia, Tennessee, or Texas A&M.

When you have that kind of SOS and especially that kind of OOC SOS, the committee looks for ways to get those teams in. It's why Georgetown had such a great case if they had gotten to 17 wins.

If Marquette had scheduled just a bit tougher OOC, they would be in a LOT better place right now. Teams with schedules like that you don't want to put it in the hands of the committee.

[MUWarrior1090]

3 big things in todays bracket-
1- Nova got moved off the #1 overall seed. means they would have a tougher road in the final 4 if seeds held- instead of seeing west champion, they'd get like in this bracket UNC or Baylor. Much tougher.
2- Xavier finally got bumped to a 8 seed. They may have to beat Butler on Saturday to really avoid that fate.
3- Butler has a thing where if you are a Butler fan- you are like where do we sign? St Mary's and Baylor to get to the elite 8. golden chance.

The thing with Vanderbilt I think is they have such a brutal schedule. Right now #3 in the country. If they can get enough wins, they're going to be an easy in. I mean, they have 10 top 100 wins right now. If they can beat Miss St on Saturday and split next week with Florida and Kentucky, they will probably get in- even with a 17-14 record- given what the bubble is like.

Marquette has 8 top 100 wins, 6 top 50 wins, and owns a 25 point neutral court win over Vanderbilt. Vandy has 10 top 100 wins, but only 4 top 50 wins. Vandy's worst loss is 248 Missouri. MU's only loss outside the top 100 is 121 SJU. But Vandy only needs 17 wins? And Marquette is out unless they get to 19+ wins?

Just seems like you look for any reason to include other conference's teams, and any reason to exclude Big East teams. Maybe you're just being cautious. I don't know.

As of right now-
Marquette has 5 top 50 wins, 8 top 100. #62 SOS and #227 OOC SOS 4-7 away from home
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2017/ ... /Marquette
If they finish at 18-13, they would be at a 67 RPI entering the conf. tourney
Vanderbilt has 4 top 50 wins, 10 top 100. #2 SOS and #1 OOC SOS 6-8 away from home
if they finish at 17-14, they would be at a 41 RPI entering the conf. tourney.
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2017/ ... Vanderbilt

Realistically, both would need a win in their conference tourney. Only difference is Marquette might actually need 2 if they finish 7th and see DePaul in rd 1(very possible). Also, Vandy would need theirs over a Georgia, Tennessee, or Texas A&M.

When you have that kind of SOS and especially that kind of OOC SOS, the committee looks for ways to get those teams in. It's why Georgetown had such a great case if they had gotten to 17 wins.

If Marquette had scheduled just a bit tougher OOC, they would be in a LOT better place right now. Teams with schedules like that you don't want to put it in the hands of the committee.

I think this is fair. The only thing we disagree on is if Marquette could get in at 18-13 (1-2 and a first round BET loss). I think they could, you don't. Agree to disagree. My only provision would be if they do drop the the 7 seed, and lose a game to Depaul, then yeah they aren't going to get in at 18-13 with a really bad loss.

One nitpick is Marquette currently has 6 top 50 wins, as Georgia moved up to 50 last night (via ESPN if you click the team name in bracketology)

It's unfortunate because Marquette actually scheduled much better non-con than last year, but a lot of their buy games are going to finish significantly lower in the RPI than would have been projected at the start of the year. And RPI is really the only big dent in Marquette's resume.

[stever20]

actually looking at the official NCAA stuff, Georgia is 51....
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... Sheets.pdf

I'm not so sure about the comment about the OOC schedule being lower than expected....
Wisconsin maybe.
Vandy- they're a bit better than expected.
Georgia- a bit better
Michigan- right about where expected
Pitt- right about where expected
Fresno- about where expected

so yeah Wisconsin isn't as good as was expected, but everyone else is right about where expected I think. We knew it was a pretty mediocre schedule back in August/September, and it's played out as such.

[MUWarrior1090]

actually looking at the official NCAA stuff, Georgia is 51....
https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/St ... Sheets.pdf

I'm not so sure about the comment about the OOC schedule being lower than expected....
Wisconsin maybe.
Vandy- they're a bit better than expected.
Georgia- a bit better
Michigan- right about where expected
Pitt- right about where expected
Fresno- about where expected

so yeah Wisconsin isn't as good as was expected, but everyone else is right about where expected I think. We knew it was a pretty mediocre schedule back in August/September, and it's played out as such.

My comment on the schedule had less to do with the top 6 teams and more to do with the bottom 6 buy games. Howard (342) projected to be 200-250. SIU-E (334) projected to be top 300. IUPUI (222) projected to be 150-175. If those three improve to their projections, it's good for about a 10 spot jump in the RPI and we aren't having this discussion.

But it is what it is. DePaul getting into the top 175 or so regularly would be nice, as well.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Jerry Palm's Bracketology - CBS Sports - updated Sunday morning, February 26th

Seed No. - Team
1 - Villanova
3 - Butler
6 - Creighton
9 - Xavier
10 - Seton Hall
11 - Providence
11 - Marquette (play-in game at UD Arena)

Last four in: Rhode Island, Marquette, Syracuse, Wake Forest

[Hall2012]

Lunardi now has Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette all going to Dayton for the first four. It's the exception to the rule that would prevent any Big East teams from meeting each other prior to the regional semi-final (or regional final for teams who meet in the BET).