Bracketology '17

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

College Basketball Bubble Watch - Eamonn Brennan, ESPN - February 17, 2017

Scarcity of mid-major teams has changed the bubble's shape

Big East Conference
Locks:
Teams that should be in: Xavier, Creighton
Work left to do: Seton Hall, Georgetown, Providence, Marquette

Butler's 110-86 win over St. John's removes all doubt: The Bulldogs are a lock. Even a four-loss finish (including a home defeat on Sunday to DePaul, which, come on) would leave the Bulldogs with a 20-10 record and wins over Arizona, Cincinnati, Villanova, Xavier, and Northwestern heading into the Big East tournament. Regardless of what you think of the Bulldogs' Final Four viability or the degree of precision between their nitty-gritty sheet and their work on the floor in Big East play -- where their offense ranks fourth, their defense fifth, per possession -- there's no question this is a balanced, capable and extremely well-coached team, with a resume to match.

Xavier [18-8 (8-5), RPI: 16, SOS: 7] Wednesday's 12-point loss at Providence will do more to aid the vanquisher than hurt the vanquished. Xavier's best wins (at Creighton, vs. Wake Forest, vs. Seton Hall) aren't all that thrilling, and a complete slide in its last five games (at Marquette, at Seton Hall, vs. Butler, vs. Marquette, at DePaul) could change the calculus. But, for now, the Musketeers remain in decent shape.

Creighton [21-5 (8-5), RPI: 18, SOS: 52] Don't worry, Creighton fans: You guys are next. Yes, the Bluejays beat Butler twice, but NCAA tournament resumes are more than head-to-head affairs, and the Bulldogs have the better overall suite of top wins, not to mention 15 against the RPI top 100 to Creighton's nine. It's just hard to lock up a team after a loss, even if the loss in question (87-81 at Seton Hall) isn't all that damaging in the big picture. It feels better after a win, for everyone involved. What's most important here is that Creighton, for the most part, hasn't fallen off a cliff since Maurice Watson Jr.'s injury. As my colleague John Gasaway found this week, the 476 (pre-Seton Hall) possessions the Bluejays played without Watson Jr. were only mildly less effective (to the tune of about .05 points per trip) than the 377 they played with him. Meanwhile, they're still shooting the ball from inside and outside the arc as well as any team in the country. They'll be fine.

Seton Hall [16-9 (6-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 47] A very special Bubble Watch shoutout to Seton Hall guard Khadeen Carrington. Creighton didn't have a bad night offensively against the Pirates on Wednesday; to the contrary, the Bluejays scored 81 points in 74 trips, a perfectly respectable effort for a major conference road trip. It's just that the Pirates scored 1.18 points per possession, primarily because Carrington went for 41 -- on 7-of-10 from 2, 3-of-5 from 3 and 18-of-22 from the free throw line in an 87-81 win. Secondary shoutouts are also warranted for Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez, who scored 17 and 18 respectively. That's big-time stuff, especially considering Seton Hall is (A) in the heart of the bubble fray and (B) in a three-game homestand against Creighton, Villanova and Xavier. One down, two to go.

Georgetown [14-12 (5-8), RPI: 61, SOS: 12] A win over Marquette on Saturday kept the Hoyas from falling to 13-13 overall and took a bit of a bite out of a team sitting higher on the current bubble hierarchy. But other than that, it doesn't move the needle much. A win at Creighton on Sunday would make a much bigger dent.

Providence [16-11 (6-8), RPI: 62, SOS: 33] Saturday's win over Butler got Providence a provisional spot on the page (we're so sorry). Wednesday's win over Xavier means the Friars might be here to stay. It's a long way up yet, but another trajectory-altering opportunity, at Creighton, awaits next week.

Marquette [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 81, SOS: 75] After narrowly missing out on a massive opportunity in a 68-65 home loss to Butler, the Golden Eagles followed with an 18-point loss at Georgetown. It's not an inherently bad loss on paper, but the 80 points in 68 possessions Marquette gave up to the Hoyas is a good example of why this team looks destined to spend the rest of the season hovering around the bubble: It doesn't guard anybody.

[herodotus]

College Basketball Bubble Watch - Eamonn Brennan, ESPN - February 17, 2017

Scarcity of mid-major teams has changed the bubble's shape

Big East Conference
Locks:
Teams that should be in: Xavier, Creighton
Work left to do: Seton Hall, Georgetown, Providence, Marquette

Butler's 110-86 win over St. John's removes all doubt: The Bulldogs are a lock. Even a four-loss finish (including a home defeat on Sunday to DePaul, which, come on) would leave the Bulldogs with a 20-10 record and wins over Arizona, Cincinnati, Villanova, Xavier, and Northwestern heading into the Big East tournament. Regardless of what you think of the Bulldogs' Final Four viability or the degree of precision between their nitty-gritty sheet and their work on the floor in Big East play -- where their offense ranks fourth, their defense fifth, per possession -- there's no question this is a balanced, capable and extremely well-coached team, with a resume to match.

Xavier [18-8 (8-5), RPI: 16, SOS: 7] Wednesday's 12-point loss at Providence will do more to aid the vanquisher than hurt the vanquished. Xavier's best wins (at Creighton, vs. Wake Forest, vs. Seton Hall) aren't all that thrilling, and a complete slide in its last five games (at Marquette, at Seton Hall, vs. Butler, vs. Marquette, at DePaul) could change the calculus. But, for now, the Musketeers remain in decent shape.

Creighton [21-5 (8-5), RPI: 18, SOS: 52] Don't worry, Creighton fans: You guys are next. Yes, the Bluejays beat Butler twice, but NCAA tournament resumes are more than head-to-head affairs, and the Bulldogs have the better overall suite of top wins, not to mention 15 against the RPI top 100 to Creighton's nine. It's just hard to lock up a team after a loss, even if the loss in question (87-81 at Seton Hall) isn't all that damaging in the big picture. It feels better after a win, for everyone involved. What's most important here is that Creighton, for the most part, hasn't fallen off a cliff since Maurice Watson Jr.'s injury. As my colleague John Gasaway found this week, the 476 (pre-Seton Hall) possessions the Bluejays played without Watson Jr. were only mildly less effective (to the tune of about .05 points per trip) than the 377 they played with him. Meanwhile, they're still shooting the ball from inside and outside the arc as well as any team in the country. They'll be fine.

Seton Hall [16-9 (6-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 47] A very special Bubble Watch shoutout to Seton Hall guard Khadeen Carrington. Creighton didn't have a bad night offensively against the Pirates on Wednesday; to the contrary, the Bluejays scored 81 points in 74 trips, a perfectly respectable effort for a major conference road trip. It's just that the Pirates scored 1.18 points per possession, primarily because Carrington went for 41 -- on 7-of-10 from 2, 3-of-5 from 3 and 18-of-22 from the free throw line in an 87-81 win. Secondary shoutouts are also warranted for Angel Delgado and Desi Rodriguez, who scored 17 and 18 respectively. That's big-time stuff, especially considering Seton Hall is (A) in the heart of the bubble fray and (B) in a three-game homestand against Creighton, Villanova and Xavier. One down, two to go.

Georgetown [14-12 (5-8), RPI: 61, SOS: 12] A win over Marquette on Saturday kept the Hoyas from falling to 13-13 overall and took a bit of a bite out of a team sitting higher on the current bubble hierarchy. But other than that, it doesn't move the needle much. A win at Creighton on Sunday would make a much bigger dent.

Providence [16-11 (6-8), RPI: 62, SOS: 33] Saturday's win over Butler got Providence a provisional spot on the page (we're so sorry). Wednesday's win over Xavier means the Friars might be here to stay. It's a long way up yet, but another trajectory-altering opportunity, at Creighton, awaits next week.

Marquette [15-10 (6-7), RPI: 81, SOS: 75] After narrowly missing out on a massive opportunity in a 68-65 home loss to Butler, the Golden Eagles followed with an 18-point loss at Georgetown. It's not an inherently bad loss on paper, but the 80 points in 68 possessions Marquette gave up to the Hoyas is a good example of why this team looks destined to spend the rest of the season hovering around the bubble: It doesn't guard anybody.

The true mid major conferences have been pretty much stripped of their best programs. All of those programs have been taken by schools at the "tweener level", to replace schools lost to the P5 or BE.

You really have to feel for Xavier. Unless things change in a hurry, they're going to go from a potential 3-4 seed, to maybe as low as a 10 or 11. I don't think they would miss the tournament unless they pretty much lose out, but man, injuries can surely derail a season.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology - updated Thursday February 16, 2017

Seed No. - Team
1 - Villanova
4 - Butler
5 - Creighton
7 - Xavier
11 - Marquette (play-in game at UD Arena)
12 - Seton Hall (play-in game at UD Arena)

Last Four In
Syracuse
Seton Hall
Illinois State
Marquette

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology - updated Monday February 20, 2017

Seed No. - Team
1 - Villanova
4 - Butler
6 - Creighton
7 - Xavier
11 - Marquette (play-in game at UD Arena)
12 - Seton Hall (play-in game at UD Arena)

Last Four In
TCU
Marquette
Seton Hall
Georgia Tech

Should it come to pass that Marquette and/or Seton Hall play at UD Arena, they will enjoy a near-homecourt advantage against their opponents. With two notable exceptions (Xavier and Notre Dame), the Flyer Faithful will loudly root for a Catholic school to beat a state school or another private school. Unless, of course, their opponent is the Flyers, which is still a possibility.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

College Basketball Bubble Watch - Eamonn Brennan, ESPN - February 21, 2017

How much has the SEC really improved its profile?

Big East Conference
Locks:
Teams that should be in: Xavier
Work left to do: Seton Hall, Georgetown, Providence, Marquette

Breathe deep, Bluejays fans: Creighton joins Cincinnati in the hallowed halls of lockdom today. After the best start in program history, guard Maurice Watson's season-ending injury was one of the biggest bummers of the season; what's more it could have imperiled Creighton's brilliant 18-1 open in the committee's contrast-affixed eyes. No one would claim Creighton is better without Watson, sure. But Marcus Foster and Justin Patton have kept the offense humming along well enough to preclude any reason the committee might have to make a drastic, damaging comparison on Selection Sunday. Creighton might not be a Final Four team without Watson, but it remains awfully good all the same.

Xavier [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 10] Last week was, well, disconcerting. After losing guard Edmond Sumner to a season-ending knee injury, the Musketeers lost by 12 at Providence on Wednesday night and then, three days later, by 22 at Marquette. The Golden Eagles can really score in bunches, but they don't guard well enough to explain XU's 61 points in 67 trips. Chris Mack's team still has a pretty RPI and SOS and a top-20 noncon schedule to bolster its bid, but its best wins, save Feb. 4 at Creighton, don't inspire much deference to a team that is playing its worst basketball in the closing weeks of the season.

Seton Hall [16-10 (6-8), RPI: 46, SOS: 37] Two games into the biggest stretch of its season -- wherein the Hall gets Creighton, Villanova and Xavier on its own floor in the matter of seven days -- the Pirates currently stand at 1-1. After Khadeen Carrington put the team on his back in an 87-81 win, Villanova came in and did what Villanova does, which is to say it casually tore Seton Hall to shreds. Getting up and off the bubble will require more than just a win over Xavier Wednesday night -- there are three games left from there, including a trip to Butler -- but a 2-1 end to that three-game homestand would be a boost all the same.

Georgetown [14-13 (5-9), RPI: 61, SOS: 6] As with Vanderbilt, it is worth noting that 14 losses is a historically ugly numerical precedent where the bubble is concerned. It is also worth noting that Georgetown is one loss away from that threshold. Wins over Creighton and at Butler in late January seemed to hint toward a major turnaround; the Hoyas have lost three of their past five since, and one of those wins was a three-point escape at DePaul. Still very much a long shot. But not dead yet.

Providence [16-11 (6-8), RPI: 67, SOS: 39] Last Saturday's win over Butler got Providence a Prov-isional spot on the page (we're so sorry). Wednesday's win over Xavier means the Friars might be here to stay. It's a long way up yet for Providence, but another trajectory-altering opportunity, at Creighton, awaits Wednesday night.

Marquette [16-10 (7-7), RPI: 72, SOS: 70] Had Marquette managed to knock off Butler Feb. 7 -- when the Golden Eagles played the Bulldogs tight but couldn't contain Andrew Chrabascz down the stretch in the 68-65 loss -- we might be talking about a serious bubble surge. As it is, Saturday's win over Xavier adds another quality notch to the Golden Eagles' belt, which already included a win at Creighton and a home upset of Villanova. This is the same team, by the way, that gave up 86 points in 73 possessions in a 14-point loss at St. John's on Feb. 1, and the same one that lost by 18 at Georgetown a week before its 22-point win over the Musketeers. Marquette plays fast, makes a bunch of 3s, and doesn't guard, making it one of the nation's most volatile, unpredictable teams.

[MUWarrior1090]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket ... acketology

In his update today, Lunardi has.....

Marquette is the first team to avoid dayton - 11 seed
Seton Hall 4th last team in, last team in Dayton - 11 seed
Providence is next four out.

[ecasadoSBU]

Hard to understand how Providence is in the Next Four out Category... while Clemson/ Wake Forest/ Tenn / Georgia Tech / and K-State are ahead. I don't expect Lunardi to give PC any love though...

[DudeAnon]

I will trust whatever source gives us the most teams. lol

So dance card it is with 7 teams in. These seeds are based on results prior to Monday. http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Nova (1)
Butler (2)
Creighton (4)
Xavier (6)
Marquette (10)
Providence (11)
Seton Hall (11)

[kayako]

Hard to understand how Providence is in the Next Four out Category... while Clemson/ Wake Forest/ Tenn / Georgia Tech / and K-State are ahead. I don't expect Lunardi to give PC any love though...

I disagree with Lunardi, too. PC does have a pair of truly horrific losses @BC and @Depaul. But it's weird to have Vanderbilt that wasn't even on the radar on Monday jump Providence. @Creighton > @Tennessee

Palm's newest update has 7 BE teams in, with PC actually ahead of Marquette.

[ArmyVet]

Hard to understand how Providence is in the Next Four out Category... while Clemson/ Wake Forest/ Tenn / Georgia Tech / and K-State are ahead. I don't expect Lunardi to give PC any love though...

I disagree with Lunardi, too. PC does have a pair of truly horrific losses @BC and @Depaul. But it's weird to have Vanderbilt that wasn't even on the radar on Monday jump Providence. @Creighton > @Tennessee

Palm's newest update has 7 BE teams in, with PC actually ahead of Marquette.

PC has three very winnable games remaining games. If they enter the Big East tournament with a six game winning streak, I suspect the Friars will be nearly a lock at that point.

[kayako]

PC has three very winnable games remaining games. If they enter the Big East tournament with a six game winning streak, I suspect the Friars will be nearly a lock at that point.

Marquette@PC is going to be huge for both teams.