Bracketology '17

[stever20]

I hoped the win over Creighton would've given the Hall a little more movement, being the new best win on their resume. The reaction seems to be the biggest positive is the fact that they didn't lose. Mo Watson or not, the Jays are still a good team and when their shots are falling like they were last night they're tough to beat. It's starting to look like a 3-0 week is the only way to get the Pirates off of the 1st 4 line, even just temporarily.

I think a big thing that hurt them was Arkansas getting a big upset win at South Carolina.

Seton Hall now has 16 wins....
In the P6 conferences after last night....
21 20+
3 19
4 18
4 17

so 32 teams in P6 conferences have more wins right now than Seton Hall does. Of those 32 teams just looking- 28 have a better RPI than Seton Hall at #40 currently. Then there is 1 of 10 16 win teams(Oklahoma St) who has a better RPI than Seton Hall right now. Also, only USC has a worse KP rating than Seton Hall right now- so 31/32 there. So would say like there's 24 or so locks right now from the P6 conferences. Then add in Gonzaga/St Mary's, Cincy/SMU- and you have only really about 10 at large slots left.

[stever20]

I keep seeing Xavier matched with Louisville in the 2-7 or 3-6 seed games. I don't want Xavier to be a 7 seed but if it comes to it I think Louisville would be the best case. Also gotta make up for what happened in last years 2-7 seed game

I'm of the opinion that after the BET, CU, BU, and XU will all be in the 7-9 range. I hope that I am wrong.

I think you're wrong on Butler. They're 20-6 and 9-5 with 4 games left. They get 2 more wins(home vs DePaul and Seton Hall)- and they're 22-8 11-7. With a projected RPI of 14- and a top 10 overall SOS and #12 OOC SOS. If that's not a top 4 seed, I don't know what is.

I do think you are right on Creighton and Xavier....

[JohnW22]

I keep seeing Xavier matched with Louisville in the 2-7 or 3-6 seed games. I don't want Xavier to be a 7 seed but if it comes to it I think Louisville would be the best case. Also gotta make up for what happened in last years 2-7 seed game

I'm of the opinion that after the BET, CU, BU, and XU will all be in the 7-9 range. I hope that I am wrong.

I haven't looked enough to compare numbers but that would be an awful ending to the season. I said it before but when the ACC beats up on eachother it improves their conference and when the Big East beats up on eachother it kills. Let's hope if that happens 3 1-2 seeds will be gone by the second round.

[stever20]

I keep seeing Xavier matched with Louisville in the 2-7 or 3-6 seed games. I don't want Xavier to be a 7 seed but if it comes to it I think Louisville would be the best case. Also gotta make up for what happened in last years 2-7 seed game

I'm of the opinion that after the BET, CU, BU, and XU will all be in the 7-9 range. I hope that I am wrong.

I haven't looked enough to compare numbers but that would be an awful ending to the season. I said it before but when the ACC beats up on eachother it improves their conference and when the Big East beats up on eachother it kills. Let's hope if that happens 3 1-2 seeds will be gone by the second round.

Just look at the projected standings for both conferences-
ACC- 2 teams at 13-5, 4 teams at 12-6
BE- 1 team at 15-3, 3 teams at 11-7

It's the uneven schedules. Where UNC gets Florida St and Louisville only once, and FSU and Louisville play only once. So instead of having 6 games with those teams, and 6 losses, it's only 3 games, and only 3 losses.

[billyjack]

Even with all the beating-up within the Big East, the current RPI numbers of our Big Four are still excellent:

Villanova - RPI 2.
Butler - RPI 13.
Xavier - RPI 14.
Creighton - RPI 17.

Pollsters are idiots, so these don't match the rankings. And there are other factors, etc. But on RPI alone, this translates to:

Villanova a 1-seed.
Butler a 4-seed.
Xavier a 4-seed.
Creighton a 5-seed.

Also, with Bluiett missing last night's loss at Providence, the committee is supposed to factor that in to the equation. Or, if they don't, then Providence gets full credit for an excellent signature win. So either Xavier maintains their spot as a 4-seed, or Providence upticks on the bubble a ton.

[stever20]

Even with all the beating-up within the Big East, the current RPI numbers of our Big Four are still excellent:

Villanova - RPI 2.
Butler - RPI 13.
Xavier - RPI 14.
Creighton - RPI 17.

Pollsters are idiots, so these don't match the rankings. And there are other factors, etc. But on RPI alone, this translates to:

Villanova a 1-seed.
Butler a 4-seed.
Xavier a 4-seed.
Creighton a 5-seed.

Also, with Bluiett missing last night's loss at Providence, the committee is supposed to factor that in to the equation. Or, if they don't, then Providence gets full credit for an excellent signature win. So either Xavier maintains their spot as a 4-seed, or Providence upticks on the bubble a ton.

true. But Creighton is 3-4 since the injury to Watson with 2 of the 3 wins vs DePaul. Xavier is 3-2 since Summer went out. Those 2 are going to get evaluated largely on their performances w/o those 2.

[kayako]

I keep seeing Xavier matched with Louisville in the 2-7 or 3-6 seed games. I don't want Xavier to be a 7 seed but if it comes to it I think Louisville would be the best case. Also gotta make up for what happened in last years 2-7 seed game

I'm of the opinion that after the BET, CU, BU, and XU will all be in the 7-9 range. I hope that I am wrong.

I haven't looked enough to compare numbers but that would be an awful ending to the season. I said it before but when the ACC beats up on eachother it improves their conference and when the Big East beats up on eachother it kills. Let's hope if that happens 3 1-2 seeds will be gone by the second round.

80% of the league still has at-large chances. That's comparable to ACC, B12, and B1G.

Awful ending would be if we end up with less than 12 or so tournament credits. Getting as many teams as possible is just as important as good seeding. The conference needs to stockpile massive number of tournament credits to continue to keep up with the best.

[stever20]

the number of tourney units pales in comparison to the number of sweet 16 or better teams in importance. The casual fans do not give a rip about the tourney units. Only hard core fans do. But casual fans do care about who makes the sweet 16 or further.

[Westbrook#36]

After spending far too long looking at today's updated bubble watch and cross referencing other info (rpi, league standings, bracketmatrix, etc.) I've got a list of 12 candidates for 4 final tourney spots. First off, I count 22 one bid conferences(maybe 23 with the Valley in play), so there's 22(23) spots, now we're down to 46(45). I've got the following conferences with these bids so far, conference(bid #); AAC(2), ACC(9), A-10(2), BE(5), B10(6), B12(6), Pac12(5), SEC(4), WCC(2).

So the candidates:

School record(conf) rpi SOS

Wake Forest 15-11(6-8) 37 21
Clemson 14-11(4-9) 53 23
Georgia Tech 15-11(6-7) 78 51
TCU 17-9(6-7) 50 32
Texas Tech 17-9(5-8) 83 119
Georgetown 14-12(5-8) 61 12
Providence 16-11(6-8) 62 33
Marquette 15-10(6-7) 81 75
Michigan 17-9(7-6) 52 43
Indiana 15-12(5-9) 89 35
Tennessee 14-12(6-7) 45 2
Illinois St. 22-5(14-1) 35 158
Wichita St. 24-4(13-1) 47 203

I didn't include record against top 50/100 rpi, well because that's too much work, who do I think I am? stever or something? Someone else can come along and include that if they feel so inclined, add more teams as well, this is just meant as a discussion starter. Also you can clearly see why everyone is saying how weak this years bubble is. (edit) added Wichita St. so 13 for 5 spots(extra going to MVC winner, if someone else wins, well either WSU/Ill. St. are screwed)

[Hall2012]

After spending far too long looking at today's updated bubble watch and cross referencing other info (rpi, league standings, bracketmatrix, etc.) I've got a list of 12 candidates for 4 final tourney spots. First off, I count 22 one bid conferences(maybe 23 with the Valley in play), so there's 22(23) spots, now we're down to 46(45). I've got the following conferences with these bids so far, conference(bid #); AAC(2), ACC(9), A-10(2), BE(5), B10(6), B12(6), Pac12(5), SEC(4), WCC(2).

So the candidates:

School record(conf) rpi SOS

Wake Forest 15-11(6-8) 37 21
Clemson 14-11(4-9) 53 23
Georgia Tech 15-11(6-7) 78 51
TCU 17-9(6-7) 50 32
Texas Tech 17-9(5-8) 83 119
Georgetown 14-12(5-8) 61 12
Providence 16-11(6-8) 62 33
Marquette 15-10(6-7) 81 75
Michigan 17-9(7-6) 52 43
Indiana 15-12(5-9) 89 35
Tennessee 14-12(6-7) 45 2
Illinois St. 22-5(14-1) 35 158
Wichita St. 24-4(13-1) 47 203

I didn't include record against top 50/100 rpi, well because that's too much work, who do I think I am? stever or something? Someone else can come along and include that if they feel so inclined, add more teams as well, this is just meant as a discussion starter. Also you can clearly see why everyone is saying how weak this years bubble is. (edit) added Wichita St. so 13 for 5 spots(extra going to MVC winner, if someone else wins, well either WSU/Ill. St. are screwed)

It's a little early to lift Seton Hall off the bubble, don't you think? Perhaps if they beat Villanova tomorrow, but until then I'd drop your BE(#) to 4 and add them to the list of candidates.

Though I will say (and maybe this is why you're excluding them) Seton Hall doesn't seem likely to end up in one of those last 4 in spots. With their remaining games, they'll likely either play their way straight into the field or fall out altogether.