Current Bubble Odds

[stever20]

I'll update the odds for Xavier after it updates today but here's the others....
Marquette to finish with 19 wins- 10-8 in conference- 56.7 RPI 73.13%
Seton Hall to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 44.2 RPI 21.98%
Georgetown to finish with 18 wins- 9-9 in conference- 48.3 RPI 20.02%
Providence to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 54.3 RPI 13.34%

huge weeks coming up for-
Marquette- @ St John's, @ DePaul
Seton Hall- @ Xavier, @ Georgetown
Georgetown- @ DePaul, Seton Hall
Providence- Villanova

[ArmyVet]

huge weeks coming up for-

Amended: everyone!

[stever20]

so looking after last week....
to me normal case....
Marquette 10-8 in conf needed, 19-11 58.0 RPI 54.39%
Seton Hall 9-9 in conf needed, 19-11 41.7 RPI 32.79%
Providence 9-9 in conf needed 19-12 55.4 RPI 10.2%
Georgetown 9-9 in conf needed, 18-13 47.5 RPI 9.36%

now optimistic cases-
Marquette 9-9 in conf 18-12 71.4 RPI 81.04%
Seton Hall 8-10 in conf 18-12 52.2 RPI 52.43%
Providence 8-10 in conf 18-12 68.4 RPI 33.65%
Georgetown 8-10 in conf 17-13 57.2 RPI 32.58%

I think Seton Hall and Georgetown could get in on the optimistic side. Don't think Marquette or Providence could. IF that's the case- Marquette 54.39%, Seton Hall 52.43%, Georgetown 32.58%, Providence 10.2%.

looking at this week-
Marquette(would likely need to finish 4-3)- Butler, @ Georgetown
Seton Hall(would likely need to finish 4-4)- Providence, @ St John's
Georgetown(would likely need to finish 4-3)- @ Nova, Marquette
Providence(would likely need to finish 5-2)- @ Seton Hall, Butler

so looking at this the 2 big ones are obviously Providence @ Seton Hall and Marquette @ Georgetown. I think that Marquette/Georgetown one could be close to an elimination game as if both lose early this week, they would both need 4-2- and a loss there would make it 4-1. The Providence/Seton Hall one probably is an elimination game for PC.

[Hall2012]

The Providence/Seton Hall one probably is an elimination game for PC.

Arguably for both teams. Seton Hall is in real trouble if it goes into that 3 game Creighton-Nova-Xavier stretch at anything less than 6-6 in conference. It would pretty much require winning 2 of those 3.

[stever20]

so looking after yesterday...
Marquette 19-11 58.3 RPI 36.78%(down from 58.0 RPI, 54.39%)
Marquette 18-12 71.9 RPI 69.77%(down from 71.4 RPI, 81.04%)

Georgetown 18-13 47.2 RPI 6.24%(47.5 RPI, but down from 9.36%)
Georgetown 17-14 57.3 RPI 27.86%(57.2 RPI, but down from 32.58%)

so to me most likely scenario is
Marquette 36.78% down from 54.39%
Georgetown 27.86% down from 32.58%
Seton Hall 61.91% up from 52.43%
Providence 11.1% up from 10.2%

I must have misadded Seton Hall on Monday when I did this. either that or Willard had a great week of practice!

[stever20]

so after last night to me the likely outcomes...
Seton Hall now at 70.48% (with 8 conf wins-51.8 RPI)
Marquette now at 37.3% (with 9 conf wins-58.0 RPI)
Georgetown now at 29.47% (with 8 conf wins-57.2 RPI)
Providence now at 4.90% (with 9 conf wins-55.0 RPI)

last night was just so huge for Seton Hall and the conference. It probably realistically made 5 much more probable than not. a loss there and it's probable today none of the 4 teams are even at 50%.

[stever20]

so looking:
Possible
SH 18-12 8-10 51.6 RPI 51.68%
Geo 17-14 8-10 55.2 RPI 45.32%
PC 18-13 8-10 68.4 RPI 45.1%
Marq 18-12 9-9 71.2 RPI 51.11%

Likely in:
SH 19-11 9-9 41.2 RPI 19.73%
Geo 18-13 9-9 46.0 RPI 12.66%
PC 19-12 9-9 55.4 RPI 13.29%
Marq 19-11 10-8 58.1 RPI 17.2%

and needed IMO
Seton Hall now at 51.68%(down from 70.48%)
Georgetown now at 45.32%(up from 29.47%)
Marquette now at 17.2%(down from 37.3%)
Providence now at 13.29%(up from 4.9%)

I think a lot of folks would be surprised at how high Georgetown is right now, and then conversely how low Marquette is right now.

[stever20]

updated thru last night:
Seton Hall- 8-10 18-12 53.2 77.22% up from 51.68%
Georgetown- 8-10 17-14 56.8 47.27% up from 45.32%
Providence- 9-9 19-12 58.6 29.97% up from 13.29%
Marquette- 10-8 19-11 58.3 19.54% up from 17.2%

Saturday on the bubble:
Xavier @ Marquette- KP Marq 58% Sag Marq 54%
Nova @ Seton Hall- KP SH 27% Sag SH 24%
Sunday on the bubble-
Georgetown @ Creighton- KP Geo 20% Sag Geo 23%

so must win for Marquette to keep any shot realistically, and for Seton Hall and Georgetown- huge shots.

[kayako]

How safe is Xavier?

[stever20]

How safe is Xavier?

I think they're pretty much a lock. Looking at them if they are 18-13(losing out)- they would have a RPI of 36.5. Only a 0.69% chance of that. I think the danger for X if they really stumble here is they could be looking at a 10 or even lower seed.