(3) Wed. Big East Games 2/1/17

[Bill Marsh]

Two things that Stever is right about:

1) Non-conference SOS does matter and major conference teams don't get a pass on that. A team doesn't necessarily need to have a top 50 non-conference SOS, but having one of the weaker non-conference schedules in all of D1 is a serious blemish on a tournament resume. It could prove to be the difference if Marquette ends up on the bubble.

That makes sense only to the extent that 6 of the wins in Marquette's wins total are suspect. I've never seen any reliable reports that it is the case that OOC SOS matters all by itself. The committee studies a team's overall record. Obviously adding weak opponents doesn't help, but to say that weak OOC opponents count more than weak in conference opponents is not true. The committee is looking for teams that can make a strong showing in the tournament. They look for the evidence for that wherever they can get it to show that teams can or cannot be competitive.

2) 18 wins is a very likely outcome for Marquette. In fact, 18 or 19 wins are by far the most likely outcomes for Sagarin, each with a 27% chance of occurring. Kenpom projects 18 wins as most likely, with just looking at individual game probabilities, it's clear than 19 is just about as likely. Then, 17 and 20 wins are about equally likely after that (18% and 16%, respectively), and any other outcome is really unlikely.

I don't share the fascination for what's most likely. We'll find out soon enough what actually happens. Setting an arbitrary number of wins ignores 2 key elements to the decision making - what other bubble teams are doing and what happens in conference tournaments,

Now, I don't share Stever's level of pessimism about all of this. It may seem arbitrary, but Marquette likely needs to get 19 wins (or better, obviously) rather than 18 wins in order to have a reasonable shot. Still, that is a very likely outcome and if they hit 20, they're probably good. Just don't go on the road and lose to DePaul.

Marquette needs to have more quality wins than whomever they're being compared to after the conference tournaments are completed.

[stever20]

where setting 18 regular season wins as a benchmark for Marquette is reasonable is what their RPI would be if they don't get that. If they finish the regular season 17-13, their projected RPI is 85. They would likely then have to make the BE final to just have a shot there. You say that ignores what other bubble teams are doing. My point is with a RPI that low, enough teams will do enough to knock them out. To say otherwise just isn't being realistic. 18 regular season wins for Marquette is an absolute must, unless they make a run to the BE finals.

Also look at your team rankings site all the teams listed as 100% getting Bids from the big conferences...
ACC 5(plus Notre Dame at 94%)
B12 3
BE 3 (plus Xavier at 97%)
SEC 2 (plus South Carolina at 99%)
B10 1 (plus Purdue 99%, Maryland 97%)
P12 3
WCC 2
AAC 1 (plus SMU at 99%)

so right now, we have 20 teams there as locks plus 6 more at 94%+. take out the 8 auto bids from those 8 conferences, and right there 18 of the 36 at larges are known already. If we take it down to 80%, you add USC, Dayton/VCU, Wichita St/Illinois St. So after those 3, you are looking only at 15 more teams left.

[DudeAnon]

where setting 18 regular season wins as a benchmark for Marquette is reasonable is what their RPI would be if they don't get that. If they finish the regular season 17-13, their projected RPI is 85. They would likely then have to make the BE final to just have a shot there. You say that ignores what other bubble teams are doing. My point is with a RPI that low, enough teams will do enough to knock them out. To say otherwise just isn't being realistic. 18 regular season wins for Marquette is an absolute must, unless they make a run to the BE finals.

Also look at your team rankings site all the teams listed as 100% getting Bids from the big conferences...
ACC 5(plus Notre Dame at 94%)
B12 3
BE 3 (plus Xavier at 97%)
SEC 2 (plus South Carolina at 99%)
B10 1 (plus Purdue 99%, Maryland 97%)
P12 3
WCC 2
AAC 1 (plus SMU at 99%)

so right now, we have 20 teams there as locks plus 6 more at 94%+. take out the 8 auto bids from those 8 conferences, and right there 18 of the 36 at larges are known already. If we take it down to 80%, you add USC, Dayton/VCU, Wichita St/Illinois St. So after those 3, you are looking only at 15 more teams left.

Um, I'd imagine most of the conference champ winners from those 8 are likely to be at-large anyway.

[stever20]

where setting 18 regular season wins as a benchmark for Marquette is reasonable is what their RPI would be if they don't get that. If they finish the regular season 17-13, their projected RPI is 85. They would likely then have to make the BE final to just have a shot there. You say that ignores what other bubble teams are doing. My point is with a RPI that low, enough teams will do enough to knock them out. To say otherwise just isn't being realistic. 18 regular season wins for Marquette is an absolute must, unless they make a run to the BE finals.

Also look at your team rankings site all the teams listed as 100% getting Bids from the big conferences...
ACC 5(plus Notre Dame at 94%)
B12 3
BE 3 (plus Xavier at 97%)
SEC 2 (plus South Carolina at 99%)
B10 1 (plus Purdue 99%, Maryland 97%)
P12 3
WCC 2
AAC 1 (plus SMU at 99%)

so right now, we have 20 teams there as locks plus 6 more at 94%+. take out the 8 auto bids from those 8 conferences, and right there 18 of the 36 at larges are known already. If we take it down to 80%, you add USC, Dayton/VCU, Wichita St/Illinois St. So after those 3, you are looking only at 15 more teams left.

Um, I'd imagine most of the conference champ winners from those 8 are likely to be at-large anyway.

right, I took out the 8 auto bids- 26 teams with a 94%+ chance of making the tourney right now- minus 8- gives you the 18.