(3) Wed. Big East Games 2/1/17

[stever20]

If Marquette goes .500 from here on- they're 18-12. Projected RPI there is 70. With a OOC SOS of 243. End of the day, they don't make it, that's the reason why.

And even to get to 18 wins now, they would need 2 wins from Butler, @ Georgetown, Xavier, @ Providence, @ Xavier, and Creighton. And beat both DePaul and St John's.

[SJUBBALL]

I have 2 thoughts on last night



1. Great win for SJU. Looked good for FORTY minutes tonight.. PROGRESS


2. those xavier uniforms were beautiful

[Bill Marsh]

If Marquette goes .500 from here on- they're 18-12. Projected RPI there is 70. With a OOC SOS of 243. End of the day, they don't make it, that's the reason why.

And even to get to 18 wins now, they would need 2 wins from Butler, @ Georgetown, Xavier, @ Providence, @ Xavier, and Creighton. And beat both DePaul and St John's.

Why are you analyzing something that hasn't even happened? And why are you picking the worst case scenario as your subject for analysis? Why not speculate that they win 20 games, which they're perfectly capable of doing? In that case, they project to an RPI of 42 and will be in like Flint.

All of this ignores the fact that there is a conference tournament. Those games count too. Regular season RPI will not be a factor in deciding who's selected.

The committee will focus on any team's overall SOS, which for Marquette figures to be a very strong mid 50's or better. Their schedule will not jeopardize their selection.

[SJHooper]

Seton Hall is in a strange situation. Loaded roster, started hot, now fading. They are different than Xavier or Creighton though in that they did not lose some huge impact player that can explain the collapse. I would think any decent coach would be able to get SH's roster in the dance without much worry. Delgado is an absolute monster.

[Bill Marsh]

A week to prepare for a team who just lost their best player and only had 2 days, and still lost. If that doesn't scream awful coaching, I don't know what does. Another terrible, inexcusable loss for Seton Hall.

Terrible, inexcusable loss? Even with Sumner gone, Xavier is still probably the better team and they were playing on their home court. I get that you were hoping for Seton Hall to take advantage of the turmoil at Xavier, but that was never guaranteed to be an issue. Mentally, Xavier was highly focused and playing with the same brand of toughness they have displayed in almost every game this season. The transition to Goodin as starting point guard was also made easier by the fact that he's highly talented and he had started to play very well recently.

Yes, undoubtedly. Unless you're playing a team that is far more talented, like Villanova, losing any game in which you have a significant advantage in prep time is inexcusable. In this case that was 6 days to 2. I wasn't hoping for any sort of turmoil, Seton Hall shouldn't need that to beat Xavier. However Xavier's sudden lack of point guard depth should have made an already winnable game even more winnable. It's just terrible coaching.

Agree. But they played well on the road. I think this team still has a run left in them. Their biggest problem all year has been a lack of depth. Except for Powell, it showed up again.

[stever20]

If Marquette goes .500 from here on- they're 18-12. Projected RPI there is 70. With a OOC SOS of 243. End of the day, they don't make it, that's the reason why.

And even to get to 18 wins now, they would need 2 wins from Butler, @ Georgetown, Xavier, @ Providence, @ Xavier, and Creighton. And beat both DePaul and St John's.

Why are you analyzing something that hasn't even happened? And why are you picking the worst case scenario as your subject for analysis? Why not speculate that they win 20 games, which they're perfectly capable of doing? In that case, they project to an RPI of 42 and will be in like Flint.

All of this ignores the fact that there is a conference tournament. Those games count too. Regular season RPI will not be a factor in deciding who's selected.

The committee will focus on any team's overall SOS, which for Marquette figures to be a very strong mid 50's or better. Their schedule will not jeopardize their selection.

You are right about the conference tourney. if they go 4-4, they would be 9-9 and almost surely the 5 seed. Would almost guaranteed have to win that to make the tourney.

I used 18 wins because the other poster said that if they go .500 rest of the way they're in. I don't think that's the case. The thing with Marquette, sure they're capable of finishing with 20 wins, but just the same, they're just as capable of finishing with 16-17 wins. Sorry but them with 18 wins isn't the worst case scenario. They could easily finish with fewer.

The committee has long considered OOC strength of schedule. If they had a OOC SOS even around 125, with 18 wins, they would be easily in. To act like the committee ignores that is pretty comical.

[xu1990]

The X uniforms are from the 80s-early 90's. As a 90 alum, I had some flashbacks to some great teams wearing those jerseys. Even those numbers; 5-Kyle "count em" Talyor, 55 -Bob Koester, etc. LOVE those jerseys, just need some Byron Larkin short shorts

[GumbyDamnit!]

If Marquette goes .500 from here on- they're 18-12. Projected RPI there is 70. With a OOC SOS of 243. End of the day, they don't make it, that's the reason why.

And even to get to 18 wins now, they would need 2 wins from Butler, @ Georgetown, Xavier, @ Providence, @ Xavier, and Creighton. And beat both DePaul and St John's.

Why are you analyzing something that hasn't even happened? And why are you picking the worst case scenario as your subject for analysis? Why not speculate that they win 20 games, which they're perfectly capable of doing? In that case, they project to an RPI of 42 and will be in like Flint.

All of this ignores the fact that there is a conference tournament. Those games count too. Regular season RPI will not be a factor in deciding who's selected.

The committee will focus on any team's overall SOS, which for Marquette figures to be a very strong mid 50's or better. Their schedule will not jeopardize their selection.

It's that time of year unfortunately BM where our buddy Stever starts to gaze into his crystal ball and tell us all what is going to happen with bids.

Marq certainly hasn't helped themselves since the Nova game but there is so much BB left to play. They are ranked 37th in KenPom, which is higher than: MD, Mich St, VCU, Indiana, Miami, & Minnesota. Do they have to win games? Yes. All teams that want to get in have to win games. But making any statements about whether they'll get in or not at this point is so ridiculous. Who thought Butler would drop 2 at home in one week? No one. Lots of twists and turns for all teams ahead. That's why they call it March Madness. Marq is in position to make the tourney. That's all we need to worry about.

[Bill Marsh]

If Marquette goes .500 from here on- they're 18-12. Projected RPI there is 70. With a OOC SOS of 243. End of the day, they don't make it, that's the reason why.

And even to get to 18 wins now, they would need 2 wins from Butler, @ Georgetown, Xavier, @ Providence, @ Xavier, and Creighton. And beat both DePaul and St John's.

Why are you analyzing something that hasn't even happened? And why are you picking the worst case scenario as your subject for analysis? Why not speculate that they win 20 games, which they're perfectly capable of doing? In that case, they project to an RPI of 42 and will be in like Flint.

All of this ignores the fact that there is a conference tournament. Those games count too. Regular season RPI will not be a factor in deciding who's selected.

The committee will focus on any team's overall SOS, which for Marquette figures to be a very strong mid 50's or better. Their schedule will not jeopardize their selection.

You are right about the conference tourney. if they go 4-4, they would be 9-9 and almost surely the 5 seed. Would almost guaranteed have to win that to make the tourney.

I used 18 wins because the other poster said that if they go .500 rest of the way they're in. I don't think that's the case. The thing with Marquette, sure they're capable of finishing with 20 wins, but just the same, they're just as capable of finishing with 16-17 wins. Sorry but them with 18 wins isn't the worst case scenario. They could easily finish with fewer.

The committee has long considered OOC strength of schedule. If they had a OOC SOS even around 125, with 18 wins, they would be easily in. To act like the committee ignores that is pretty comical.

Yes, and 20 wins isn't best case scenario. Of course they could win or lose all the rest of their games. My point was that 20 wins. Is as likely as 18. In fact, if they win all the games in which they're favored, they will win 20.

The committee has all kinds of data available to them. I'm sure that OOC SOS is on the list and it might even be a minor factor as a tie breaker. But overall SOS is far and away the important number. For that, Marquette will be in the 50's and that's a strength for them, not a problem.

Sorry that I didn't get the context of your comment since you didn't quote anyone. Now that I know it, I see how your point fits, and it makes sense in that context.

[Xavier4036]

Yep, Stever's usual go-to is totally ignore RPI and act as if KenPom is the gold standard that the NCAA Committee uses for selection and seeding.

But in this case, since Marquette's KenPom is 37 - he of course goes worst case scenario with Big East - and decides to use RPI - and projected RPI at that. And makes no mention of what Marquette's SOS will be (currently 65) as if that doesn't even matter but talks about "projected" OOC SOS of 200+ like that alone is going to keep Marquette out of the dance.

His act is old. Worst case scenarios for Big East and best case scenarios for American.

Marquette definitely has not helped itself with losses to St Johns and home against Providence..... but the back half of their schedule is pretty favorable. They should be fine for tournament as long as they pull out a couple more wins and don't drop a loss to DePaul or St John's