2016-17 RPI Rankings

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

UDPride RPI Rankings – Friday morning January 27th

2 – Villanova
3- Butler
14 - Creighton
16 – Xavier
41 - Marquette
46 - Seton Hall

74 - Providence
81 – Georgetown
143 - St. John's
214 – DePaul

UDPride RPI Rankings – Monday morning January 30th

2 – Villanova
5 - Butler
14 - Xavier
15 – Creighton
43 - Seton Hall

54 – Marquette
58 – Georgetown
63 - Providence
145 - St. John's
214 – DePaul
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RPI Forecast – Teams # 1 to # 351 . . . RPI Forecast - Big East Conference

Big East Conference Projections - through games of Wednesday Jan. 25, 2017:

Expected RPI Rank – Team – Projected Regular-season W-L (Projected Conference W-L)

4.3 - Villanova - 27-4 (14-4)
6.2 - Butler - 24-6 (13-5)
19.5 - Creighton - 24-6 (12-6)
19.8 - Xavier - 21-10 (11-7)
46.7 - Marquette - 20-10 (11-7)

66.2 - Seton Hall - 17-13 (7-11)
77.0 - Georgetown - 16-15 (7-11)
91.3 - Providence - 16-15 (6-12)
145.9 - St. John's - 12-19 (6-12)
224.0 - DePaul - 9-22 (2-16)

Big East Conference Projections - through games of Sunday Jan. 29, 2017:

Expected RPI Rank – Team – Projected Regular-season W-L (Projected Conference W-L)

3.3 - Villanova - 27-4 (14-4)
9.4 - Butler - 23-7 (12-6)
18.8 - Xavier - 21-10 (11-7)
19.2 - Creighton - 24-6 (12-6)

56.3 - Marquette - 19-11 (10-8)
64.0 - Seton Hall - 17-13 (7-11)
64.3 - Georgetown - 17-14 (8-10)
80.6 - Providence - 17-14 (7-11)
149.5 - St. John's - 12-19 (6-12)
225.2 - DePaul - 9-22 (2-16) 281

Marquette played themselves back onto the bubble with an unexpected home-court loss to Providence on Saturday.
Note that the Golden Warriors presently have a projected OOC SOS Rank of # 245, which may come back to haunt them.
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Bracket Matrix – last updated Wednesday Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:03 PM

Seed No. – Overall Ranking – Team (No. of Brackets out of 82)

# 1 - 1 – Villanova (82)
# 3 – 10 - Butler (82)
# 4 – 14 - Creighton (82)
# 6 – 23 - Xavier (82)
# 9 - 36 - Marquette (78)
# 10 – 40 - Seton Hall (76)

Bracket Matrix – last updated Sunday Jan. 29 2017 - 11:04 AM

Seed No. – Overall Ranking – Team (No. of Brackets out of 79)

# 1 - 1 – Villanova (79)
# 3 – 10 - Butler (79)
# 4 – 16 - Creighton (79)
# 7– 25 - Xavier (79)
# 9 - 33 - Marquette (78)
# 11 – 41 - Seton Hall (60)

Note that many of the 79 Brackets referred to above have not been updated since Marquette’s loss.

[stever20]

UDPride RPI Rankings – Friday morning January 27th

2 – Villanova
3- Butler
14 - Creighton
16 – Xavier
41 - Marquette
46 - Seton Hall

74 - Providence
81 – Georgetown
143 - St. John's
214 – DePaul

UDPride RPI Rankings – Monday morning January 30th

2 – Villanova
5 - Butler
14 - Xavier
15 – Creighton
43 - Seton Hall

54 – Marquette
58 – Georgetown
63 - Providence
145 - St. John's
214 – DePaul
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RPI Forecast – Teams # 1 to # 351 . . . RPI Forecast - Big East Conference

Big East Conference Projections - through games of Wednesday Jan. 25, 2017:

Expected RPI Rank – Team – Projected Regular-season W-L (Projected Conference W-L)

4.3 - Villanova - 27-4 (14-4)
6.2 - Butler - 24-6 (13-5)
19.5 - Creighton - 24-6 (12-6)
19.8 - Xavier - 21-10 (11-7)
46.7 - Marquette - 20-10 (11-7)

66.2 - Seton Hall - 17-13 (7-11)
77.0 - Georgetown - 16-15 (7-11)
91.3 - Providence - 16-15 (6-12)
145.9 - St. John's - 12-19 (6-12)
224.0 - DePaul - 9-22 (2-16)

Big East Conference Projections - through games of Sunday Jan. 29, 2017:

Expected RPI Rank – Team – Projected Regular-season W-L (Projected Conference W-L)

3.3 - Villanova - 27-4 (14-4)
9.4 - Butler - 23-7 (12-6)
18.8 - Xavier - 21-10 (11-7)
19.2 - Creighton - 24-6 (12-6)

56.3 - Marquette - 19-11 (10-8)
64.0 - Seton Hall - 17-13 (7-11)
64.3 - Georgetown - 17-14 (8-10)
80.6 - Providence - 17-14 (7-11)
149.5 - St. John's - 12-19 (6-12)
225.2 - DePaul - 9-22 (2-16) 281

Marquette played themselves back onto the bubble with an unexpected home-court loss to Providence on Saturday.
Note that the Golden Warriors presently have a projected OOC SOS Rank of # 245, which may come back to haunt them.
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Bracket Matrix – last updated Wednesday Jan. 25, 2017 - 10:03 PM

Seed No. – Overall Ranking – Team (No. of Brackets out of 82)

# 1 - 1 – Villanova (82)
# 3 – 10 - Butler (82)
# 4 – 14 - Creighton (82)
# 6 – 23 - Xavier (82)
# 9 - 36 - Marquette (78)
# 10 – 40 - Seton Hall (76)

Bracket Matrix – last updated Sunday Jan. 29 2017 - 11:04 AM

Seed No. – Overall Ranking – Team (No. of Brackets out of 79)

# 1 - 1 – Villanova (79)
# 3 – 10 - Butler (79)
# 4 – 16 - Creighton (79)
# 7– 25 - Xavier (79)
# 9 - 33 - Marquette (78)
# 11 – 41 - Seton Hall (60)

Note that many of the 79 Brackets referred to above have not been updated since Marquette’s loss.

worse than that, a lot of the brackets haven't been updated since Seton Hall's loss. Of the 14 brackets done yesterday, only 3 included Seton Hall. Even with the Marquette loss, all have them in right now.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Note that the Golden Eagles presently have a projected OOC SOS Rank of # 245, which may come back to haunt them.

The NCAA Tournament selection committee did a pretty bad job – SB Nation - March 14, 2016

At best, the NCAA Tournament's selectors did a bad job. At worst, they're hypocrites.

The NCAA tournament bracket is out! Soon we'll be happy about the fact that there's a 68-team basketball tournament about to tip off. For now, we're going to be a bit confused as to why the 68 teams in the field are the 68 teams in the field.

The NCAA selection committee did some really weird stuff, and we're not the only people upset about it. If the committee's job was just to pick its favorite teams, I'd understand, but the committee publicly explains the process it uses to make selections, and Committee Chairman Joe Castiglione gives interviews about why the committee picks the teams it does.

Those publicly stated criteria and interviews actually raise more questions than answers. Sometimes, the committee merely appears to have done a bad job of following its own criteria. In other cases, it appears to have completely ignored logic. Let's take a look at what exactly they did wrong!

* * *
Let's look at what Joe Castiglione had to say about the exclusion of St. Bonaventure: "In the case of St. Bonaventure, their non-conference strength of schedule was outside the top 150."

Every eligible Power 5 school with a Top-54 RPI made the NCAA Tournament. But eight non-Power 5 schools with top-54 RPIs did not.

At worst, the selection committee is being hypocritical. It's telling teams to strive for one thing and then ignoring them when they actually do it. I don't want to believe that the committee is moving the goalposts around to include power league teams however possible, because I generally don't believe in conspiracy theories. But it's a reasonable explanation for what's happening.

Either way, what the committee is doing is stupid. Fans love teams from tiny leagues pulling big upsets. It's one of our favorite things about March Madness. The committee is literally attempting to prevent Cinderella from getting into the dance.

A Top-50 RPI Doesn't Guarantee an NCAA Tournament Bid, But It's Close - February 1, 2016

The articles linked above are worth a read. My apologies to Marquette fans for the unintentional mascot name error in my previous post, corrected above.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

I think Seton Hall controls their own fate and have a shot at an 8-9 seed.

Seton Hall has a tough road ahead, and is presently projected to win 4 of their remaining 10 games.

RPI Forecast - Seton Hall - games through Monday Jan. 30th

Current RPI: 43
Expected RPI: 64.7

Current Record: 13-7
Expected Record: 17-13

Current Conf Record: 3-5
Expected Conf Record: 7-11

Date, Opponent (Opponent's Projected RPI Ranking), Location, Projected Point Spread

2-1 Xavier (18.9) Away -8.2
2-4 Georgetown (64.9) Away -4.4
2-8 Providence (80.2) Home 4.5
2-11 St. John's (149.1) Away 1.3
2-15 Creighton (19.3) Home -2.6
2-18 Villanova (3.4) Home -8.1
2-22 Xavier (18.9) Home -2.0
2-25 DePaul (225.5) Away 6.7
2-28 Georgetown (64.9) Home 1.7
3-4 Butler (9.4) Away -9.1

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

UDPride RPI Rankings – Monday morning January 30th

2 – Villanova
5 - Butler
14 - Xavier
15 – Creighton
43 - Seton Hall

54 – Marquette
58 – Georgetown
63 - Providence
145 - St. John's
214 – DePaul

UDPride RPI Rankings – Thursday morning February 2nd

3 – Villanova
10 - Butler
13 - Creighton
15 – Xavier
45 - Seton Hall

53 – Georgetown
66 - Providence
68 - Marquette
134 - St. John's
227 – DePaul
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RPI Forecast – Teams # 1 to # 351 . . . RPI Forecast - Big East Conference

Big East Conference Projections - through games of Sunday January 29th:

Expected RPI Rank – Team – Projected Regular-season W-L (Projected Conference W-L)

3.3 - Villanova - 27-4 (14-4)
9.4 - Butler - 23-7 (12-6)
18.8 - Xavier - 21-10 (11-7)
19.2 - Creighton - 24-6 (12-6)

56.3 - Marquette - 19-11 (10-8)
64.0 - Seton Hall - 17-13 (7-11)
64.3 - Georgetown - 17-14 (8-10)
80.6 - Providence - 17-14 (7-11)
149.5 - St. John's - 12-19 (6-12)
225.2 - DePaul - 9-22 (2-16) 281

Big East Conference Projections - through games of Wednesday February 1st:

Expected RPI Rank – Team – Projected Regular-season W-L (Projected Conference W-L)

3.1 - Villanova - 27-4 (14-4)
12.8 - Butler - 22-8 (11-7)
17.1 - Creighton - 24-6 (12-6)
18.9 - Xavier - 21-10 (11-7)

61.4 - Georgetown - 17-14 (8-10)
65.5 - Marquette – 18-12 (9-9)
65.7 - Seton Hall - 17-13 (7-11)
83.5 - Providence - 17-14 (7-11)
1437.5 - St. John's - 13-18 (7-11)
227.6 - DePaul - 9-22 (2-16)

I’m updating the numbers on this thread frequently as an ongoing sensitivity study of short-term and medium-term volatility. Needless to say, RPI Forecast becomes more accurate after each game is played, as the result of each game (win or loss & point margin) becomes a certainty instead of a probability. In short, RPI Forecast converges on the Final Regular-season RPI Rankings, and the purpose of this sensitivity study is to examine how quickly (or slowly) it does so, considering only the Big East teams’ data.

At this point in the season, the following observations are holding true:

(1) When a team wins a game that it is projected to win, it has very little effect on the team’s projected RPI Ranking

(2) When a team loses a game that it is projected to lose, it has very little effect on the team’s projected RPI Ranking

(3) An upset result causes significant volatility of the team’s projected RPI Ranking, and the bigger the upset (in terms of RPI Ranking differential and point spread differential), the greater the volatility in the team’s projected RPI Ranking.

I’ll post a sensitivity study on this thread some time after the Final Regular-season RPI Rankings are known, but until then, I will continue to stockpile retrievable data on this thread.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

My compliments to stever20, Hall2012, and Bill Marsh for these informative posts on another thread:

What is the RPI cut-off line for getting an at-large for the Big East so far? I'd imagine at least 50 maybe even close to 60.

I'd guess Butler last year, when they were #56. Biggest snub so far- St. John's in 2014 - #65

Big East Final 2015-16 Standings . . . Butler Bulldogs 2015-16 Schedule and Results

In 2015-16, Butler went 11-1 in non-conference games and 10-8 in conference play to finish the regular season with a 21-9 record. Butler lost their first BET game to Providence to finish 21-10 on Selection Sunday, earning the Bulldogs a # 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament, where they went 1-1.

What is the RPI cut-off line for getting an at-large for the Big East so far? I'd imagine at least 50 maybe even close to 60.

This link should help provide a good idea:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25505343/bracketolgy-ncaa-tournament-rpi-numbers-to-know-through-the-years

Essentially:
To be a lock: Top 40
To have decent odds: Top 50
To have an outside chance: Top 70 (though no love for the 50s range)

Obviously there are a lot more factors that go into it, but that's a general idea of where teams stand strictly based on RPI.

What is the RPI cut-off line for getting an at-large for the Big East so far? I'd imagine at least 50 maybe even close to 60.

RPI Forecast projects 19 conferences with teams with an RPI in the top 54. After those 19 automatic bids, you have to go up to #55 to get the 36 at-large teams.

There are all kinds of caveats that go along with that. Here are a couple of obvious ones.

1. Every conference leader upset by a team outside the top 55 converts one of those current conference leaders from an automatic bid to an at-large bid, thereby lowering the number from 55.

2. RPI Forecast is only projecting through the end of the season because conference tournament matchups are unknown at this time. Once those conference tournaments are played, teams from weaker conferences will drop in the RPI rankings beacause they will be playing lower rated teams in their conference tournaments. Conversely, teams from tougher leagues will improve their RPI because they are playing higher rated teams.

3. The outcomes of the unknown conference tournament matchups will change each team's final RPI from the projections just based on the fact that even a projection of these results is not currently factored in.

Right now only 4 Big East teams are in the top 55 - Villanova, Butler, Xavier, and Creighton - all in the top 20. Barring a total collapse, these 4 will be in the tournament. There are 3 Big East teams in the first 10 outside the top 55 - Georgetown, Marquette, and Seton Hall. A strong showing in the conference tournament by any one of these 3 will bump them into the top 55.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/eye-on-college-basketball/25505343/bracketolgy-ncaa-tournament-rpi-numbers-to-know-through-the-years

The Big Six conferences are the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC.

Since the RPI formula changed in 2005 ... Lowest RPI to get an at-large bid ... Big Six Conferences:

• 67 - USC (2011)
• 64 - Marquette (2011)
• 63 - North Carolina State (2005), Stanford (2007)

Where setting 18 regular season wins as a benchmark for Marquette is reasonable is what their RPI would be if they don't get that. If they finish the regular season 17-13, their projected RPI is 85.

Recent history suggests that an 18-12 record with an RPI Ranking in the high 60’s is a ticket to the NIT.

RPI Forecast – Marquette - through games of Wednesday February 1st.

Current Record: 14-8
Expected Record: 18-12
Current Conf Record: 5-5
Expected Conf Record: 9-9

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record • Expected RPI • Probability

20-10 • 45.2 • 15.76%
19-11 • 56.1 • 26.94%
18-12 • 69.6 • 26.68%
17-13 • 84.9 • 17.83%

Marquette has 8 conference games remaining, is expected to win at home against DePaul and St. John’s, and to lose at Xavier. Marquette’s other 5 games are projected to be coin-tosses:

Date Opponent (Opponent’s Expected RPI) Location (Probability of Win) Projected Point Spread

2-7 Butler (12.8) Home (50%) 0.1
2-11 Georgetown (61.4) Away (44%) -1.6
2-18 Xavier (18.9) Home (53%) 0.8
2-25 Providence (83.5) Away (54%) 1.0
3-4 Creighton (17.1) Home (48%) -0.4

If Marquette wins two of these 'coin-toss' games, they should reach the projected 18-12 (9-9) record with an RPI Ranking of about #70, meaning they will likely need two wins in the BET in order to make the NCAA Tournament field.

If Marquette wins three of these 'coin-toss' games, they should finish with a 19-11 (10-8) record and an RPI Ranking of about # 56, meaning they will likely need one win in the BET in order to make the NCAA Tournament field.

I believe that Marquette is quite capable of doing either, but with their very weak projected OOC SOS Ranking (# 241), the Golden Eagles will likely need a total of 20 wins by Selection Sunday to get the call.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

UDPride RPI Rankings – Thursday morning February 2nd

3 – Villanova
10 - Butler
13 - Creighton
15 – Xavier
45 - Seton Hall

53 – Georgetown
66 - Providence
68 - Marquette
134 - St. John's
227 – DePaul

UDPride RPI Rankings – Sunday morning February 5th

2 – Villanova
8 – Xavier
13 - Butler
15 – Creighton
37 - Seton Hall

66 - Marquette
67 – Georgetown
69 - Providence
124 - St. John's
231 – DePaul

[micgoG'town]

80% in the top 69. 4 in the top 15.

[anXUfan]

80% in the top 69. 4 in the top 15.

Nice.