Bracketology '17

[Hall2012]

The BE has 8 teams with an RPI of 64 or better.

Just talking out loud, cuz a lot of hoops is left...

Georgetown with 3 excellent wins plus 2 other solid OOC wins, and i think they're in better shape than people think. Plus the loss to Arkansas State (RPI 88) isn't the disaster that we thought it would be.

Seton Hall has wins over Cal (50) and South Carolina (still at 19), plus Iowa is climbing. No bad losses (at Providence (64) is not a bad loss).

If Marquette had taken care of Pitt, they'd be golden. But they're still in a great position.

Providence has some work to do, but has W's over Memphis (16-6, RPI of 84 and improving), Rhody (still at 47), and solid W's over Vermont (17-5, RPI 56) and of course 2 road wins in BE play. UMass is killing us because they've been sucky. Be nice to steal a home W vs Butler or Xavier (or Villanova, which would be a game changer). But if PC is sitting on the bubble with Memphis and/or URI, we'd have the inside track (same with Seton Hall and Cal)...

There is still a path to 7 bids, and mathematically though unlikely, 8 bids (but only if PC bumps off Villanova this Wednesday).

I see what you're saying and there is a path to a large number of bids, especially with injuries to Creighton and Xavier giving other teams paths to RPI-friendly wins at their expense. The other side of that coin, however, is that it could be setting the league up for an embarrassing amount of 1st weekend exists. Especially considering those extra bids are going to come at the expense of seeding for the teams considered locks. Plus, the last 2 or 3 will likely be double digit seeds. As things stand now, the only Big East teams that would likely to be favored to reach the sweet 16 would be Villanova and Butler.

However, you've gotta be in it to win it - a couple lower seeded BE teams reaching the sweet 16 would be huge for conference perception.

[stever20]

The BE has 8 teams with an RPI of 64 or better.

Just talking out loud, cuz a lot of hoops is left...

Georgetown with 3 excellent wins plus 2 other solid OOC wins, and i think they're in better shape than people think. Plus the loss to Arkansas State (RPI 88) isn't the disaster that we thought it would be.

Seton Hall has wins over Cal (50) and South Carolina (still at 19), plus Iowa is climbing. No bad losses (at Providence (64) is not a bad loss).

If Marquette had taken care of Pitt, they'd be golden. But they're still in a great position.

Providence has some work to do, but has W's over Memphis (16-6, RPI of 84 and improving), Rhody (still at 47), and solid W's over Vermont (17-5, RPI 56) and of course 2 road wins in BE play. UMass is killing us because they've been sucky. Be nice to steal a home W vs Butler or Xavier (or Villanova, which would be a game changer). But if PC is sitting on the bubble with Memphis and/or URI, we'd have the inside track (same with Seton Hall and Cal)...

There is still a path to 7 bids, and mathematically though unlikely, 8 bids (but only if PC bumps off Villanova this Wednesday).

And the ACC has 11 teams with RPI of 64 or better, plus 65 and 67. All that means is teams are in contention. RPI doesn't mean everything.

the problem is what all the teams need to get enough wins to even really get considered...
Georgetown is only 12-10. They need to go 6-3 to get in. If they sweep DePaul and beat St John's, would need to go 3-3 vs Seton Hall, @ Nova, Marquette, @ Creighton, @ Seton Hall, and Nova. That's tough.
Seton Hall is 13-7. They need to go 5-5 to have any shot at all at 8-10 in conference. 2 games left with DePaul and St John's.
Marquette is 14-7. They need to go 4-5 to have any shot at all but more than likely need 5-4 with their poor OOC SOS. 3 left with St John's and DePaul.
Providence is 14-9. They need to go 4-4 bare minimum to get in at 8-10- but more than likely need 5-3. 2 left with St John's and DePaul
Hell, Xavier is right now only 15-6. They need to go 4-6 to get in- and with the injury, that may not be all that easy. 2 left with DePaul.

the thing with everyone right now is that they are in if they can get enough wins, but the difficult part will be getting enough wins.

[Bill Marsh]

a lot that could help Marquette would come at the cost of hurting Xavier or Creighton's seed.

1 thing that will hurt Marquette is the OOC schedule. It wasn't good- right now projected at #236. It's currently #233.

So, you're saying that if they win out, including the BE tournament, they won't get a top 4 seed - especially if some other dominoes fall?

they could. But if they win out, that means that Xavier has 2 more losses, Creighton has 1 more loss. Georgetown and Providence get another loss. Butler loses another game. Saying that though is pretty much unrealistic because the odds of it happening just in the regular season is .006%.

Marquette has a FAR greater chance of missing the tourney than they do winning out like that.

Who cares what the odds are? Rooting for a team is about hoping they defy the odds, and wanting to be there when they do it. Like Villanova winning it all last year. Or in '85.

This isn't a math puzzle. If. It was, we could just do the calculations and cancel the games. Stranger things have happened than Marquette winning out. The reason they play the games is to find out what will happen. It's not predetermined.

[NJRedman]

a lot that could help Marquette would come at the cost of hurting Xavier or Creighton's seed.

1 thing that will hurt Marquette is the OOC schedule. It wasn't good- right now projected at #236. It's currently #233.

I'm fine with that, because X and C have both lost integral players and wont go far without them. I think Marquette has a better shot at making some noise in March.

[stever20]

The thing is, pretty much everyone will lose at least once rest of the way. I mean, Gonzaga right now in the weaker WCC has less than a 50% chance of running the table regular season. With only 2 games they could possibly really lose. And that's a high number. Cincy has only a 6.9% chance of running the table regular season. So to count on Marquette to win out is pretty much pie in the sky.

Also, if Marquette were to win out, that's going to impact other teams getting in and other teams seeds. If Marquette and Xavier play 2x and Marquette sweeps, that's going to impact Xavier. It's a zero sum game.

Like I said, the chances of Marquette missing the tourney are significantly greater than them winning out. Sure, if Marquette wins out, they'd get a great seed. But if they play like they have, they're going to be at best a 8-9 seed.

[stever20]

CBS from today:
Seton Hall 9S vs Ga Tech, then Baylor in Tulsa
Creighton 3S vs Bucknell, then South Carolina/Iowa St-NC St winner winner
Marquette 8W vs Dayton, then Gonzaga in Salt Lake City
Nova 1 E vs PIG winner, then SMU/Miami in Buffalo
Xavier 8 MW vs Cal, then Kansas in Tulsa
Butler 4 MW vs Valpo, then Purdue/Illinois St in Milwaukee

He's got Nova as the #3 seed overall.

[Bill Marsh]

The thing is, pretty much everyone will lose at least once rest of the way. I mean, Gonzaga right now in the weaker WCC has less than a 50% chance of running the table regular season. With only 2 games they could possibly really lose. And that's a high number. Cincy has only a 6.9% chance of running the table regular season. So to count on Marquette to win out is pretty much pie in the sky.

Also, if Marquette were to win out, that's going to impact other teams getting in and other teams seeds. If Marquette and Xavier play 2x and Marquette sweeps, that's going to impact Xavier. It's a zero sum game.

Like I said, the chances of Marquette missing the tourney are significantly greater than them winning out. Sure, if Marquette wins out, they'd get a great seed. But if they play like they have, they're going to be at best a 8-9 seed.

Why do I feel whenever I read. One of your posts that I'm back in Statistics 101 - which I Aced by the way. I'm totally familiar with what the odds are. But cheering for what is against all odds is precisely what being a fan is all about,

Do you seriously think for a minute that any Marquette fan is cheering for them to lose any games to soften the impact on Xavier?

Who's counting on Marquette winning out? You totally missed my point, which was that you're talking about results before the event has happened. Stuff your statistics where the sun don't shine. Simply put, you don't know what's going to happen before it happens. That was my point. Did anyone predict the injuries to Watson and Summer? Do those events change anything? There will be more unexpected developments.

I have no idea why I'm supposed to care about what Marquette's seed MIGHT be if they continue to play as they have. College basketball is about continuous improvement. I'm hoping that they play better than they have been, and I'm watching games with an eye on signs that improvement might be happening. I'm interested in tonight's game, not a hypothetical version of what the seeds might be in 6 weeks. I'll care about the seeds when they actually come out.

Taking past performance and applying it to future games really goes against everything this sport is about. College athletes are at a developmental stage. This isn't the NBA where abilities are well established. Coaches are trying to get their teams to peak in March. That's why so many upsets occur in March. That's what's interesting to me, to see what team might in fact have improved to the point where it can run the table despite the odds. Every year teams get hot despite past performance and take their fans for a ride. And that's what every fan is rooting for. Not the constant downer of stats that say it can't and it won't happen. Pie in the sky is exactly what I'm ordering for dessert.

End of rant with my apologies.

[JohnW22]

Well Xavier needs to lose a little and drop to the 11 seed or win a little more and jump to the 6 seed. As easy as it sounds right?

[Hall2012]

Well Xavier needs to lose a little and drop to the 11 seed or win a little more and jump to the 6 seed. As easy as it sounds right?

I vote option A. They can start by losing tomorrow

[JohnW22]

Well Xavier needs to lose a little and drop to the 11 seed or win a little more and jump to the 6 seed. As easy as it sounds right?

I vote option A. They can start by losing tomorrow

Seton Hall has had Xavier's number and I don't see that changing this year