Current Bubble Odds

[stever20]

so this was before yesterday according to RPI forecast-
Marquette to finish with 19 wins- 10-8 in conference- 54.5 RPI- 73.21%
Seton Hall to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 43.8 RPI- 26.59%
Providence to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 54.0 RPI- 16.29%
Georgetown to finish with 18 wins- 9-9 in conference- 47.6 RPI- 4.87%

will be interesting to see Seton Hall later today when they update to take into account yesterday's win.

Marquette looking really good obviously. Looking at the RPI forecast, only 3 games left where they are underdogs- and one of those is home with Creighton which they have at 50% so really a coin flip. In Ken Pom only underdogs for 2 more games. So Marquette may be looking if they won all they are supposed to at a 22-8 type of year which would be a 28.9 RPI which would be like a 7 or 8 seed. They may graduate from this thread in a hurry.

so RPI Forecast updated- Seton Hall now at 30.13% chance of getting to 19 wins. I think like Joe Lunardi said(and we said on the other thread)- the non power conferences are so bad this year- Lunardi said that it's very possible that no at large bids will come out of the non traditional multi bid conferences. And like we said, the AAC and A10 are a bit down this year. So it makes for a very interesting storm. He said in his bracket today that he had a whopping 9 teams in with losing conference records which is completely abnormal.

[stever20]

time for update going into this weekend....
Xavier to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 30.8 RPI- 95.05%
Marquette to finish with 19 wins- 10-8 in conference- 55.4 RPI- 87.38%
Seton Hall to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 45.7 RPI- 21.37%
Georgetown to finish with 18 wins- 9-9 in conference- 48.1 RPI- 8.28%
Providence to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 53.4 RPI- 4.77%

The only ones that I think has a chance if they don't make the win mark I gave them is Xavier and Marquette. I don't think any of Seton Hall, Georgetown, or Providence could get in w/o 9 conference wins.

Marquette has gone from in week 2 only 43% up to now 87%. Some 2 1/2 weeks heh? Shows how quickly things can change.

[JohnW22]

time for update going into this weekend....
Xavier to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 30.8 RPI- 95.05%
Marquette to finish with 19 wins- 10-8 in conference- 55.4 RPI- 87.38%
Seton Hall to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 45.7 RPI- 21.37%
Georgetown to finish with 18 wins- 9-9 in conference- 48.1 RPI- 8.28%
Providence to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 53.4 RPI- 4.77%

The only ones that I think has a chance if they don't make the win mark I gave them is Xavier and Marquette. I don't think any of Seton Hall, Georgetown, or Providence could get in w/o 9 conference wins.

Marquette has gone from in week 2 only 43% up to now 87%. Some 2 1/2 weeks heh? Shows how quickly things can change.

Uh oh he's adding Xavier now...rightfully so not arguing it.

[Hall2012]

time for update going into this weekend....
Xavier to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 30.8 RPI- 95.05%
Marquette to finish with 19 wins- 10-8 in conference- 55.4 RPI- 87.38%
Seton Hall to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 45.7 RPI- 21.37%
Georgetown to finish with 18 wins- 9-9 in conference- 48.1 RPI- 8.28%
Providence to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 53.4 RPI- 4.77%

The only ones that I think has a chance if they don't make the win mark I gave them is Xavier and Marquette. I don't think any of Seton Hall, Georgetown, or Providence could get in w/o 9 conference wins.

Marquette has gone from in week 2 only 43% up to now 87%. Some 2 1/2 weeks heh? Shows how quickly things can change.

I'm not sure they'll even get here, but I think Seton Hall has an outside shot to get in at 8-10.

Let's assume they beat Gtown x2, Providence, DePaul, and St. John's to finish at 8-10. That gives them a good shot at going into the BET with 3 top 50 wins (if Cal at 52 jumps a few places) including 1 top 25 win. Two of those are also non-conference neutral court wins. On top of that, they have a solid non-conference road win (in a building where Purdue, Iowa State, and Michigan lost) and 0 bad losses (100+ rpi). Is it a great resume, not by any stretch, but with the lack of at large quality mid-majors (and as a result, likely no bid thieves), it just might be enough.

Really, at 8-10, it might be more up to what their opponents do. Can Cal break into the top 50? A 3rd top 50 win could go a long way. Can Iowa break into the top 100? It'll make that road win more meaningful. Can DePaul and FDU break into the top 200? It would improve what's currently the most damaging part of Seton Hall's resume - 7 wins against 200+ RPI opponents. Cutting that to 5 would help. Being forced to swap the St. Peter's game out for Central Connecticut is turning out to be costly.

[JohnW22]

Hate to say it but for the first time this year I'm feeling Seton Hall will be in the NIT...they need a run in them that I don't think they have right now.

[Bill Marsh]

Hate to say it but for the first time this year I'm feeling Seton Hall will be in the NIT...they need a run in them that I don't think they have right now.

I agree, but it's too early to give up hope. There are always surprises.

[stever20]

time for update going into this weekend....
Xavier to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 30.8 RPI- 95.05%
Marquette to finish with 19 wins- 10-8 in conference- 55.4 RPI- 87.38%
Seton Hall to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 45.7 RPI- 21.37%
Georgetown to finish with 18 wins- 9-9 in conference- 48.1 RPI- 8.28%
Providence to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 53.4 RPI- 4.77%

The only ones that I think has a chance if they don't make the win mark I gave them is Xavier and Marquette. I don't think any of Seton Hall, Georgetown, or Providence could get in w/o 9 conference wins.

Marquette has gone from in week 2 only 43% up to now 87%. Some 2 1/2 weeks heh? Shows how quickly things can change.

I'm not sure they'll even get here, but I think Seton Hall has an outside shot to get in at 8-10.

Let's assume they beat Gtown x2, Providence, DePaul, and St. John's to finish at 8-10. That gives them a good shot at going into the BET with 3 top 50 wins (if Cal at 52 jumps a few places) including 1 top 25 win. Two of those are also non-conference neutral court wins. On top of that, they have a solid non-conference road win (in a building where Purdue, Iowa State, and Michigan lost) and 0 bad losses (100+ rpi). Is it a great resume, not by any stretch, but with the lack of at large quality mid-majors (and as a result, likely no bid thieves), it just might be enough.

Really, at 8-10, it might be more up to what their opponents do. Can Cal break into the top 50? A 3rd top 50 win could go a long way. Can Iowa break into the top 100? It'll make that road win more meaningful. Can DePaul and FDU break into the top 200? It would improve what's currently the most damaging part of Seton Hall's resume - 7 wins against 200+ RPI opponents. Cutting that to 5 would help. Being forced to swap the St. Peter's game out for Central Connecticut is turning out to be costly.

Providence could get to become a bad loss. Right now, they're projected at 16-15. 1 more loss than projected and they could wind up sub 100.

To me, that Seton Hall/Georgetown game next Saturday could easily become like a knock out game.

[gosports1]

I cant see Providence getting 9 wins in conference. maybe 6 tops. I predict a beatdown tomorrow at Marquette (by Marquette I mean)

[Edrick]

Updated Tournament odds from TeamRankings

100% Villanova
100% Butler
98.9% Creighton
93% Xavier
79% Marquette
21.5% Seton Hall
12.1% Georgetown
3.9% Providence
0.3% St Johns
0.0% DePaul (Lloyd Christmas is even sad)

[billyjack]

Right now, the Big East has 8 teams in the top 64 of the RPI.