Biggest surprise?

[X @ Heart]

I dont understand the Patton vs Ewing thing. I mean Patrick Ewing is one of the greatest big men ever to play the game. If Patton can accomplish half of what Ewing has in his career would be phenominal. Personally, I think its unreasonable to compare the two. Just because their freshmen numbers are comparable means absolutley nothing. Alot of players had better freshmen numbers than M.Jordan, which means absolutley nothing in the scheme of things. Right now Patton is a solid freshmen. Not Patrick freaking Ewing, an all time great.

[Wizard of Westroads]

I dont understand the Patton vs Ewing thing. I mean Patrick Ewing is one of the greatest big men ever to play the game. If Patton can accomplish half of what Ewing has in his career would be phenominal. Personally, I think its unreasonable to compare the two. Just because their freshmen numbers are comparable means absolutley nothing. Alot of players had better freshmen numbers than M.Jordan, which means absolutley nothing in the scheme of things. Right now Patton is a solid freshmen. Not Patrick freaking Ewing, an all time great.

I really don't think anyone is seriously suggesting Patton is better.

[XUFan09]

I also point out that CU uses Patton as the secondary defender when teams drive into the paint (which tends to happen somewhat regularly since we are still not great at stopping that). He is attempting to block or alter shots when guys get into the heart of the paint. That will take him out of rebounding position many times. We rely on the guard/forward to rotate down on Patton's guy (which often puts a smaller person trying to block out opposing bigs and leads to getting jumped over for rebounds on occasion). I think Mac is willing to live with giving up some of those in order to use Patton defensively in that manner. And, he still has a little ways to go in developing the size and strength to keep from getting pushed out of position. That will come with more maturity and work in the weight room (although he certainly doesn't want to get too big and lose his mobility).

Thanks for the insight. Your explanation makes a lot of sense.

If that's their strategy, they should revisit it. Patton doesn't block enough blocked shots to justify giving up the rebounds. And their field goal percentage defense is mediocre at best, suggesting that the intimidation approach isn't getting the desired results either. They are getting outrebounded as a team, so the first thing that should be done is to get Parron back in position to be an effective rebounder

Patton's block rate of 6.0% of opponents' two-point field goals ranks third in the Big East, behind Tariq Owens and Kassoum Yankee. They are far ahead of him and the rest of the Big East, but still, that's a really good block rate that puts him ahead of every non-elite shot-blocker in the conference. Creighton's defensive field goal percentage, while mediocre, would probably be worse without him sliding to contest shots. And it's not like his defensive rebounding is weak. His season rate of 20.7% of opponents' misses puts him among conference leaders, and he's actually pulled down an impressive 25.9% of boards in conference games only. Three games doesn't constitute a legitimate sample, but it does indicate that he hasn't let up.

[Bill Marsh]

I also point out that CU uses Patton as the secondary defender when teams drive into the paint (which tends to happen somewhat regularly since we are still not great at stopping that). He is attempting to block or alter shots when guys get into the heart of the paint. That will take him out of rebounding position many times. We rely on the guard/forward to rotate down on Patton's guy (which often puts a smaller person trying to block out opposing bigs and leads to getting jumped over for rebounds on occasion). I think Mac is willing to live with giving up some of those in order to use Patton defensively in that manner. And, he still has a little ways to go in developing the size and strength to keep from getting pushed out of position. That will come with more maturity and work in the weight room (although he certainly doesn't want to get too big and lose his mobility).

Thanks for the insight. Your explanation makes a lot of sense.

If that's their strategy, they should revisit it. Patton doesn't block enough blocked shots to justify giving up the rebounds. And their field goal percentage defense is mediocre at best, suggesting that the intimidation approach isn't getting the desired results either. They are getting outrebounded as a team, so the first thing that should be done is to get Parron back in position to be an effective rebounder

Patton's block rate of 6.0% of opponents' two-point field goals ranks third in the Big East, behind Tariq Owens and Kassoum Yankee. They are far ahead of him and the rest of the Big East, but still, that's a really good block rate that puts him ahead of every non-elite shot-blocker in the conference. Creighton's defensive field goal percentage, while mediocre, would probably be worse without him sliding to contest shots. And it's not like his defensive rebounding is weak. His season rate of 20.7% of opponents' misses puts him among conference leaders, and he's actually pulled down an impressive 25.9% of boards in conference games only. Three games doesn't constitute a legitimate sample, but it does indicate that he hasn't let up.

Link?

Georgetown Bradley Hayes (1.4) has roughly the same bpg as Patton (1.5) in less than 15 minutes per game. Creighton as a team is 160th in the country in blocks.

The Big East is not loaded with top shot blockers this year, so how Patton compares to the rest of the league doesn't give great insight into how significant an asset his shot blocking is. I understand that McDermott may feel that he needs some kind of strategy to discourage teams from taking the ball up the middle for easy baskets. All I'm saying is that the team is being outrebounded by its opponents against what so far has been mostly lesser opposition. That exposes a basic weakness if Patton has to be pulled away from a roll as a rebounder, regardless of whether the measure is shot blocking or rebounding.

[XUFan09]

http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=Pct ... =2017&f=BE

If you don't have a subscription to Kenpom, sorry. Anyone else on this board with a Kenpom subscription can corroborate this ranking.

Yes, the Big East is not loaded with shot blockers, but there are still a good number of respectable interior players that can block and alter shots. Basically, in any year of the Big East, having the third highest block rate (or third highest of any stat) is notable, as it's a power conference. It's not like he's third in the MAAC. Also, blocking 6.0% of opponents' two-pointers is good, no matter what. That rate would put a player in the top 10 of the Big East in any year going back as far as the 2003-2004 season when Kenpom started tracking individual stats. Basketball Reference might have data going farther back, but I don't feel like checking in, as it is unnecessary additional evidence.

I should note that Kenpom rankings require that a player plays a minimum of 40% of possible minutes. Bradley Hayes' rate is really good (8.5%), but he's working in too small of a sample size to confidently include him, because a smaller sample size means his "true block rate" could vary widely from the statistic. Nevertheless, I think it's safe to say from watching him play that Hayes is really good at blocking and altering shots, so it's possible for Patton to still be a good shot blocker but just not as good as Hayes (if their respective true block rates are close to their statistical block rates). If we extended the ranking to include all Big East rotation players, regardless of small sample sizes, Hayes would be the only one added that has a better block rate than Patton anyway.

[Bill Marsh]

http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=PctBlocks&y=2017&f=BE

If you don't have a subscription to Kenpom, sorry. Anyone else on this board with a Kenpom subscription can corroborate this ranking.

Yes, the Big East is not loaded with shot blockers, but there are still a good number of respectable interior players that can block and alter shots. Basically, in any year of the Big East, having the third highest block rate (or third highest of any stat) is notable, as it's a power conference. It's not like he's third in the MAAC. Also, blocking 6.0% of opponents' two-pointers is good, no matter what. That rate would put a player in the top 10 of the Big East in any year going back as far as the 2003-2004 season when Kenpom started tracking individual stats. Basketball Reference might have data going farther back, but I don't feel like checking in, as it is unnecessary additional evidence.

I should note that Kenpom rankings require that a player plays a minimum of 40% of possible minutes. Bradley Hayes' rate is really good (8.5%), but he's working in too small of a sample size to confidently include him, because a smaller sample size means his "true block rate" could vary widely from the statistic. Nevertheless, I think it's safe to say from watching him play that Hayes is really good at blocking and altering shots, so it's possible for Patton to still be a good shot blocker but just not as good as Hayes (if their respective true block rates are close to their statistical block rates). If we extended the ranking to include all Big East rotation players, regardless of small sample sizes, Hayes would be the only one added that has a better block rate than Patton anyway.

Thanks for the link. I couldn't find that information anywhere and you're right, I can't access it from Ken Pom since I don't have a subscription. I greatly appreciate the information nonetheless.

Georgetown's Jessie Govan is averaging 1.1 bpg in 19 mpg. That projects to a similar rate to Patton if he were playing Patton's 25 mpg. So, when you consider Hayes as well, it's not like he's well above everyone else except for Owens and Yakwe.

My point was never to disparage Patton as a shot blocker. My point was that I don't see the value in reducing his opportunities to grab rebounds on a team that is outrebounded by its opponents in order to make him a shot blocking presence. His 1.5 big project to 1.8 in 30 minutes and 2.0 in 33+ minutes per game. That's good but not elite in a world where elite shot blockers knock back 3-4 shots per game.

Georgetown is top 50 in the country in blocked shots. It's a real strength of theirs as a team, so building a defensive strategy around their shot blocking makes sense. But Creighton is 160th in blocked shots and 176th in opponents' shooting percentage. Far be it from me to question McDermott's coaching strategy because he's a very good coach, but I think they need to focus more on basic defensive fundamentals and rebounding rather than redirecting their best inside player to shot blocking while giving up rebounds.

[XUFan09]

I can see the argument for a focus on rebounding if you aren't strong there (or strong defensively in general). That's actually the MO of Creighton's defense in most years, limiting opponents to one shot to make up for weak defensive personnel. There's always a tradeoff, though. How much would Creighton concede in opposing two-point percentage? For that question, you have to consider that Patton is the only regular rotation player with a respectable block rate. How much would they gain in rebounding rate? Since he's already pulling in 20% of opponents' misses, how much can he raise his rebounding rate? Really, the only thing this Creighton defense is close to being good at is keeping opponents off the free throw line, so outside of that, what we are evaluating is the marginal differences within mediocrity.

By the way, you are right about Govan. His block rate is 5.7%, right behind Patton.

[cu blujs]

Creighton gives up a lot of offensive boards because on many shots at least three guys are leaking out to push the ball up court. On occasion Patton is even the first guy headed the other way. While I am sure Mac isn't happy giving up 20 offensive boards, he understands full well that giving up a higher number of offensive boards is a trade off for the tempo he wants to play.

[Bill Marsh]

I can see the argument for a focus on rebounding if you aren't strong there (or strong defensively in general). That's actually the MO of Creighton's defense in most years, limiting opponents to one shot to make up for weak defensive personnel. There's always a tradeoff, though. How much would Creighton concede in opposing two-point percentage? For that question, you have to consider that Patton is the only regular rotation player with a respectable block rate.

How much would they gain in rebounding rate? Since he's already pulling in 20% of opponents' misses, how much can he raise his rebounding rate?

Really, the only thing this Creighton defense is close to being good at is keeping opponents off the free throw line, so outside of that, what we are evaluating is the marginal differences within mediocrity.

By the way, you are right about Govan. His block rate is 5.7%, right behind Patton.

It was CU Blu Js who got this discussion started by saying that Patton's rebound numbers don't truly reflect his ability because the coach is using him to clog the lane and lock shots, thereby pulling him out of rebound position. If we're to agree with your point that there's little room for him to I,prove his rebound numbers, that pulls the rug out from under CU Blu Js' argument.

[Hall2012]

Wow, I didn't realize what I'd be starting by saying I'd like to see some more rebounding out of Patton. What I had in mind was that Angel Delgado as a freshman averaged 9.8 rebounds per game and wondered why Patton couldn't match that. Though to be fair, 9.8 for a freshman is pretty ridiculous. It also turns out that they're very comparable on the defensive end - the big difference was that freshman Delgado averaged over 3 offensive rebounds per game, which Patton comes nowhere close to but his team also doesn't miss as many shots.