Current Bubble Odds

[stever20]

here's with RPI forecast the current odds of bubble teams getting enough wins to make the tourney- summing the % chances of finishing with # of wins or greater from RPI forecast
Marquette 10 wins needed (RPI 19-11 is 50.9)- 47.55%
Seton Hall 9 wins needed (RPI 19-11 is 48.4)- 38.32%
Georgetown 9 wins needed (RPI 18-13 is 56.8)- 25.21%
Providence 9 wins needed (RPI 19-12 is 51.9)- 10.51%
St John's 13 wins needed (RPI 19-12 is 55.2)- 0.14% I think they could be interesting at 18-13- their RPI there would be 66.1, but even that is only a 0.65% chance of that- but hey, I'm saying there's a chance!
DePaul 0% chance to get close even(their highest % is at 16 wins only right now- and with their OOC schedule, they have no shot)

[stever20]

So looking right now after week 2-
Seton Hall- 9 wins needed (19-11 RPI=49.4) 51.6% +13.28% from last week
Marquette- 10 wins needed (19-11 RPI=53.7) 43.01% -4.54% from last week
Providence- 9 wins needed (19-12 RPI=54.5) 9.54% -0.97% from last week
Georgetown 9 wins needed(plus UConn) (18-13 RPI=56.1) 8.09% -17.12% from last week
St Johns fyi has only a 3.32% chance right now to finish with a winning record even. (coincidentally that would be what it takes to finish with a top 100 RPI)

[Hall2012]

So looking right now after week 2-
Seton Hall- 9 wins needed (19-11 RPI=49.4) 51.6% +13.28% from last week
Marquette- 10 wins needed (19-11 RPI=53.7) 43.01% -4.54% from last week
Providence- 9 wins needed (19-12 RPI=54.5) 9.54% -0.97% from last week
Georgetown 9 wins needed(plus UConn) (18-13 RPI=56.1) 8.09% -17.12% from last week
St Johns fyi has only a 3.32% chance right now to finish with a winning record even. (coincidentally that would be what it takes to finish with a top 100 RPI)

So beating DePaul at home jumps Seton Hall from 38% to 52%. I thought the 38% for them last week was way too low, but that jump for winning a game that their model should have had at about a 95% win doesn't make any sense.

[stever20]

So looking right now after week 2-
Seton Hall- 9 wins needed (19-11 RPI=49.4) 51.6% +13.28% from last week
Marquette- 10 wins needed (19-11 RPI=53.7) 43.01% -4.54% from last week
Providence- 9 wins needed (19-12 RPI=54.5) 9.54% -0.97% from last week
Georgetown 9 wins needed(plus UConn) (18-13 RPI=56.1) 8.09% -17.12% from last week
St Johns fyi has only a 3.32% chance right now to finish with a winning record even. (coincidentally that would be what it takes to finish with a top 100 RPI)

So beating DePaul at home jumps Seton Hall from 38% to 52%. I thought the 38% for them last week was way too low, but that jump for winning a game that their model should have had at about a 95% win doesn't make any sense.

I think part of it is that RPI forecast uses the Sagarin predictor, and given Seton Hall won by 31, their actual ranking went up, which influenced other games. I know in KP they went up from 55 to 49 just from Saturday. Meanwhile take on the opposite side of things Georgetown. They went from being #54 in KP on Wednesday to #62 right now. So Instead of the computer looking at a matchup of 55 vs 54 it's now 49 vs 62. A pretty big difference.

[stever20]

so I looked quickly at Seton Hall and Marquette after last night....

Seton Hall now to get 19 wins has a 47.28% chance. 48.1 RPI with that record.
Marquette now to get 19 wins has a 51.46% chance. 54.4 RPI with that record.

So both are about 50/50 shots to get in after last night.
Providence down to a 3.47% chance of finishing with 19 wins.
Georgetown with a 13.99% chance of finishing with 18 wins.

Will be interesting to see all of these numbers after Monday night with everyone adding in 2 games between now and then.

[stever20]

Marquette to 19 wins- 49.69% 19-11 54.2
Seton Hall to 19 wins- 25.26% 19-11 44.5
Providence to 19 wins- 16.54% 19-12 51.6
Georgetown to 18 wins- 4.55% 18-13 50.2

so compared to after week 2-
Seton Hall gone from 51.6% to 25.26%
Marquette gone from 43.01% to 49.69%
Providence gone from 9.54% to 16.54%
Georgetown gone from 8.09% to 4.55%

Seton Hall primarily with that loss to PC really slipped this weekend. Down from 47.28 to 25.26 or 22%.

Huge chances this weekend with Marquette and Providence playing at Creighton and Villanova respectively. And even Georgetown playing at Xavier.
For Seton Hall- a complete must win. Tough to see 9 conference wins if they lose at home to St John's.

[Nildogg]

Should X be listed? lol...

[Edrick]

Newest odds for the NCAA Tournament.

Nova - 100%
Creighton - 99%
Butler - 100%
Xavier - 92.2%
Marquette - 42.7%
Seton Hall - 30.4%
Providence 12.1%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

[stever20]

Newest odds for the NCAA Tournament.

Nova - 100%
Creighton - 99%
Butler - 100%
Xavier - 92.2%
Marquette - 42.7%
Seton Hall - 30.4%
Providence 12.1%

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/

to me, Marquette is undervalued there. they are at least 50/50 right now. Plus, and I know this is going to sound callous, they get the benefit of playing Creighton in the first game after the injury to Watson. So they may be able to steal a win that they wouldn't have gotten otherwise which could really help them a lot.

Seton Hall is I think in a lot of trouble. It wouldn't be shocking if they made it, but then again, it wouldn't be a surprise in any fashion if they missed either.

Providence is interesting. If they had beaten DePaul I'd be saying they had the best shot of the 3.

[stever20]

so this was before yesterday according to RPI forecast-
Marquette to finish with 19 wins- 10-8 in conference- 54.5 RPI- 73.21%
Seton Hall to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 43.8 RPI- 26.59%
Providence to finish with 19 wins- 9-9 in conference- 54.0 RPI- 16.29%
Georgetown to finish with 18 wins- 9-9 in conference- 47.6 RPI- 4.87%

will be interesting to see Seton Hall later today when they update to take into account yesterday's win.

Marquette looking really good obviously. Looking at the RPI forecast, only 3 games left where they are underdogs- and one of those is home with Creighton which they have at 50% so really a coin flip. In Ken Pom only underdogs for 2 more games. So Marquette may be looking if they won all they are supposed to at a 22-8 type of year which would be a 28.9 RPI which would be like a 7 or 8 seed. They may graduate from this thread in a hurry.