Biggest surprise?

[Bill Marsh]

You don't think so? He's putting up 13 and 7 as a freshman and is a 7 footer who can run the floor and has a pretty smooth game. I could see it definitely happening before 4 years. Of course all centers are helped by having a good team around them, but all good teams don't have good centers.

REB BLK PTS
7.5 3.2 12.7

6.4 1.6 13.1

comp of Patrick Ewing vs. Justin Patton freshman year stats

Patton's a sophomore, right?

I hope you're not seriously comparing him with Patrick as a player.

Patton's a redshirt freshman so this is his first year of eligibility. I don't think you're appreciating how rare it is for a 7 footer to be able to do the things that Patton can do. Roy Hibbert was nowhere near the athlete or player Patton is and still has had a pretty long NBA career. Statistically pretty similar. Ewing was obviously a better shot blocker and rebounder marginally, but so far played about 4 more minutes and patton is shooting about 10% better from the field. I just did that comp for fun, but it's not really a big difference considering one is an NBA Hall of Famer. I've been very impressed by him so far.

First of all, Patton is a sophomore. Yes, he's in his first year in terms of eligibility, but you're comparing him to Patrick in his first year out of high school. Patton had a whole year last season to practice with the team, to be coached by college coaches, and to physically mature. Not the same.

Second, you're comparing stats from 2 completely different eras. Patrick played with no shot clock and with no 3-point shot. As a result defenses were packed down low to stop the inside game. Patton plays on a team loaded with 3-point shooters who pull defenses out and open up the inside game for him. Not the same.

Third, Patrick's Georgetown team was one of the great defensive teams of all time who revolutionized the game with their approach to defense. They were not a run and gun offense like Creighton, which averages 90 ppg. They averaged only 67 ppg in Patrick's feshman year. His scoring in that context was completely different than Payton's scoring in a high octane offense. Not the same.

Finally, you're comparing a kid with less than 2 months of college ball to one of the 50 greatest players of all time. Seriously? Do you think maybe he could prove something first? Patrick took his team to the national finals as a freshman. Patton was a redshirt practice player as a freshman. Not the same.

I'm not knocking Patton. He was a highly rated player coming out of high school and I think that he will develop into a fine player. He definitely has NBA potential. But he's not going to the NBA after this season, or he will be making a mistake.

[Bill Marsh]

Patton's a redshirt freshman so this is his first year of eligibility. I don't think you're appreciating how rare it is for a 7 footer to be able to do the things that Patton can do. Roy Hibbert was nowhere near the athlete or player Patton is and still has had a pretty long NBA career. Statistically pretty similar. Ewing was obviously a better shot blocker and rebounder marginally, but so far played about 4 more minutes and patton is shooting about 10% better from the field. I just did that comp for fun, but it's not really a big difference considering one is an NBA Hall of Famer. I've been very impressed by him so far.

I think the O/U on Patton leaving is 2.5, and I would cautiously take the under. In simplest terms, draft stock is a combination of performance and potential. My belief is that he will maximize this combination after his sophomore season. However, I am inclined to agree with Scoscox that leaving after this year is not out of the realm of possibility. He's producing at a good rate (extremely efficient on a moderate usage rate), doing a great job on the defensive glass and a respectable job on the offensive glass, and blocking shots at a good rate. This is all while being a highly mobile 7-footer who is only 20 and who scouts already know about. I'm still going with 2 years, but a one-and-done situation is definitely possible. At the very least, I bet he tests the waters.

The issue is whether he has an NBA body, not just his skill level. Patton was only 215 coming out of HS. I know he put on some weight last year, which was part of the purpose in red shirting him, but he's still growing into his body and as he does, he has to learn how to use the extra weight. Weight training and conditioning will continue to be an important part of his development going forward. In contrast, Ellenson was 245 lb when he went to the NBA last year.

Sidenote: To those calling Patton a sophomore in reference to basketball just because he practiced with the team for a year, that's just foolish. Practicing with a team while physically developing is worlds apart from actually playing Division I games. At best, he's only slightly ahead of most true freshman. If someone wants to insist on the distinction of "redshirt freshman," that makes sense, but he's definitely not a sophomore as a player, even if he is one as a student.

No one called him a sophomore in reference to basketball. It's a simple fact that he's a college sophomore, not a freshman. The point was that it's foolish to compare a player who's 2 years out of high school with Patrick Ewing who was in his first year out of high school and hadn't even started playing the game until he got to HS. He was a soccer player growing up in Jamaica, not a basketball player. Compared with Patrick's maturation and level of experience, that year does mean a lot. But it's not just about experience. Patton was given the redshirt year year to build up his body by adding weight and strength. At that age, one extra year to develop physically makes a world of difference.

[scoscox]

I'm only trying to point out that it is easily within the precedent of the NBA to take a chance on a guy of Patton's caliber or even far less than Patton's caliber. I think to dismiss it entirely is foolish.

The bar for one-and-done bigs has not been set high. Think Kosta Koufos, BJ Mullens, Daniel Orton. Those guys averaged 3, 8, and 3 points and 2, 6, and 2 boards respectively and were all drafted.

I think we can both agree it may be a mistake for him to leave, but I just wanted to make sure you weren't making the mistake of thinking the NBA's standards were too high to take a guy like Patton on potential alone.

[Bill Marsh]

I'm only trying to point out that it is easily within the precedent of the NBA to take a chance on a guy of Patton's caliber or even far less than Patton's caliber. I think to dismiss it entirely is foolish.

The bar for one-and-done bigs has not been set high. Think Kosta Koufos, BJ Mullens, Daniel Orton. Those guys averaged 3, 8, and 3 points and 2, 6, and 2 boards respectively and were all drafted.

I think we can both agree it may be a mistake for him to leave, but I just wanted to make sure you weren't making the mistake of thinking the NBA's standards were too high to take a guy like Patton on potential alone.

Okay. Good points.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I'm only trying to point out that it is easily within the precedent of the NBA to take a chance on a guy of Patton's caliber or even far less than Patton's caliber. I think to dismiss it entirely is foolish.

The bar for one-and-done bigs has not been set high. Think Kosta Koufos, BJ Mullens, Daniel Orton. Those guys averaged 3, 8, and 3 points and 2, 6, and 2 boards respectively and were all drafted.

I think we can both agree it may be a mistake for him to leave, but I just wanted to make sure you weren't making the mistake of thinking the NBA's standards were too high to take a guy like Patton on potential alone.

I think you are both right. There is NO WAY you can look at a stats comparison between these two. Patrick Ewing was a once in a generation of player who every NBA GM would pick #1 whatever year he came out. JP is an undeniable talent but at this point he would be taken with the hope that he continues to develop. There is no guarantee that he'll have a successful NBA career at this point. The thing is though that in today's NBA, players are drafted all the time based solely on potential. So IMO JP will have a very difficult decision to make after this year. I think some GM would be willing to take a chance on him in the first round, and a guaranteed contract is tough to pass up. I mean Diallo did nothing at Kansas last year and was still quickly drafted. That's what the NBA does.

[stever20]

I'm only trying to point out that it is easily within the precedent of the NBA to take a chance on a guy of Patton's caliber or even far less than Patton's caliber. I think to dismiss it entirely is foolish.

The bar for one-and-done bigs has not been set high. Think Kosta Koufos, BJ Mullens, Daniel Orton. Those guys averaged 3, 8, and 3 points and 2, 6, and 2 boards respectively and were all drafted.

I think we can both agree it may be a mistake for him to leave, but I just wanted to make sure you weren't making the mistake of thinking the NBA's standards were too high to take a guy like Patton on potential alone.

I think you are both right. There is NO WAY you can look at a stats comparison between these two. Patrick Ewing was a once in a generation of player who every NBA GM would pick #1 whatever year he came out. JP is an undeniable talent but at this point he would be taken with the hope that he continues to develop. There is no guarantee that he'll have a successful NBA career at this point. The thing is though that in today's NBA, players are drafted all the time based solely on potential. So IMO JP will have a very difficult decision to make after this year. I think some GM would be willing to take a chance on him in the first round, and a guaranteed contract is tough to pass up. I mean Diallo did nothing at Kansas last year and was still quickly drafted. That's what the NBA does.

Exactly. Especially if you are a center or a point guard in todays NBA.

I would say it's nearly a 100% guarantee that he's going to go thru the draft process. Whether he remains or not is another story.

[Bill Marsh]

I'm only trying to point out that it is easily within the precedent of the NBA to take a chance on a guy of Patton's caliber or even far less than Patton's caliber. I think to dismiss it entirely is foolish.

The bar for one-and-done bigs has not been set high. Think Kosta Koufos, BJ Mullens, Daniel Orton. Those guys averaged 3, 8, and 3 points and 2, 6, and 2 boards respectively and were all drafted.

I think we can both agree it may be a mistake for him to leave, but I just wanted to make sure you weren't making the mistake of thinking the NBA's standards were too high to take a guy like Patton on potential alone.

I think you are both right. There is NO WAY you can look at a stats comparison between these two. Patrick Ewing was a once in a generation of player who every NBA GM would pick #1 whatever year he came out. JP is an undeniable talent but at this point he would be taken with the hope that he continues to develop. There is no guarantee that he'll have a successful NBA career at this point. The thing is though that in today's NBA, players are drafted all the time based solely on potential. So IMO JP will have a very difficult decision to make after this year. I think some GM would be willing to take a chance on him in the first round, and a guaranteed contract is tough to pass up. I mean Diallo did nothing at Kansas last year and was still quickly drafted. That's what the NBA does.

Fair points and there's no doubt that Patton's stock is rising.

The difference between him and guys like Diallo and Ellenson is that they were both consensus top 10 picks and would have been drafted right out of high school if the rules allowed it. Patton was more like a consensus top 100 pick. Someone to watch but not a sure fire pick based on overwhelming talent. He has the next 3 months to sell the NBA on his potential. What he's done in the last 2 months has been against a schedule that has not been challenging night in and night out, so we'll see how he holds up against the rigors of The Big East schedule and the March postseason.

I readily admit that I may be underselling him and could yet be proven wrong. For the kid's sake, I hope you guys are right about his talent. Also for his sake, I hope he stays in school at least one more year.

[Hall2012]

The thing I'd like to see more out of from Patton is rebounding. I realize the offensive boards won't be there for him as much because Creighton makes basically all their shots, but to be a truly dominant big he need to start to clean up better on the defensive end. Not that 6.4 rebounds per game is by any means bad, but I'd expect a guy his size, where he's almost always the tallest man on the court, to be a double double machine.

[SJHooper]

You have to add SJ to this list due to the past 3 games. This is a team that had no pulse with much of the fanbase calling for Mullin to hire an assistant coach or even step down just weeks ago. Then they go to the Carrier Dome and absolutely demolished Cuse by 33. And by the way that was with their best player who was questionable to play but did. That was also with Boeheim (last year's win vs. Cuse was discounted by many because Boeheim was not there so that is now put to bed). After that the fanbase is thinking "wow crazy result...we probably used up all of our good karma and just got lucky that day right?" wrong. We go out and take down #13 Butler who had beaten 2 top 10 teams in OOC play. The fanbase gets very excited now but is still cautious...we will come back down to earth and lose against awful DePaul...typical trap game right? You can almost feel the letdown coming. No way we win 3 straight and start off 2-0 in conference play right? Wrong, the team disposed of DePaul and closed the game out avoiding the letdown. Dare I say this team finally looks like it might be turning the corner? Against Butler, we showed we didn't have to shoot well to win let alone against the #13 team. That was shocking and that shows improvement. It shows we are more than just a chuck and pray team. Suddenly, Darien Williams is getting healthier and playing much more like his old 4 star self. Tariq Owens may be a stringbean, but he is a problem. Suddenly, Ahmed is less out of control. Suddenly, Yakwe has his confidence back. And suddenly, Ellison is shooting lights out, defending well, and handling the ball much better. THIS is what I was looking for earlier in the season. If the team played LIU or Delaware St. today, they would win each game by 20+. Do we still have a long way to go? Yes. Is there a good chance Creighton throttles us? Yes. But there is reason to believe again, there are real results, and between DePaul nearly knocking off Nova and us beating Cuse by 33 and beating #13 Butler, anything can happen and the season feels like a reset now.

[XUFan09]

No one called him a sophomore in reference to basketball. It's a simple fact that he's a college sophomore, not a freshman. The point was that it's foolish to compare a player who's 2 years out of high school with Patrick Ewing who was in his first year out of high school and hadn't even started playing the game until he got to HS. He was a soccer player growing up in Jamaica, not a basketball player. Compared with Patrick's maturation and level of experience, that year does mean a lot. But it's not just about experience. Patton was given the redshirt year year to build up his body by adding weight and strength. At that age, one extra year to develop physically makes a world of difference.

You're on a basketball forum, talking about his draft stock, calling him a sophomore. So, yes, you are calling him a sophomore in terms of basketball. Call him a redshirt freshman, if you must, and I actually agree with that designation. Still, it is foolish to call him a sophomore on a basketball forum because he is done with most of his introductory classes in school. The Ewing comparison that Scoscox made was just for fun to show some similarities between a Hall of Famer and a redshirt freshman. You can criticize that if you want, and I don't really care, as I didn't make the comparison, but it wasn't meant to be taken that seriously.

Also, a player's need for weightlifting and conditioning is generally pretty low on the list of priorities for an NBA front office. They have elite facilities and expert trainers, and the players can devote all the time they need to improving their bodies. In that realm, what NBA scouts actually care about is if a player has the frame to add muscle and bulk (Patton does) and if they have already shown the ability to do so to a degree (he has).