Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[DudeAnon]

We can debate the merits of expanding vs not expanding. But the reality is there is 0% chance St. Bonaventure would ever be added. It would be the single worst expansion choice in conference realignment history.

Why would somebody want St. Bonaventure or Davidson in the Big East ? I bet they have family members going to those schools.
Just look at the A10 and the mistake they made adding all those mid majors. They can't expand anymore. Look at Fordame in the A 10, the fans rushed the court after beating a St. John's team that went 5-15 the previous year in the Big East . It was the biggest win they saw in years and we wanna add teams like that ?

Exactly. People never think about the long-term implications of adding a team. St. Bonaventure would be last in: tourney wins, attendance, and city size. I have nothing against the Bonnies, but it is just mind boggling that this conversation is even being entertained.

[Bill Marsh]

UConn had 12 points at halftime.

I think it's a direct result of them firing their football coach.

[UD Flyer Fanatic]

Gents,
I am not proposing expansion for you; I see no reason today. That said the world of cable sports and conference re-alignment is constantly evolving- but this is the way I see things (will try to keep my UD bias in check):

The B10 as properly described on this thread has a definitive brand- large, rich, generally public, most strong academically, land-grant universities who dominate the football & BB landscape of their respective areas. Their fans (say Ohio State) are generally not alumni of that school but grew up in Ohio- so really not much different than the typical NFL fan. What % of Buckeye fans has ever walked the OSU campus? Relatively few in my estimation.

I argue that today the BE has an equally compelling brand . Often I hear contrary views that leads me to think that some on this Board undervalue the current Brand- small, private, financially strong academic institutions of faith (Butler covers enough of the checks in the boxes) whose teams dominate the MBB landscape of their respective areas… with alumni & other local hardcore fans scattered throughout the USA whom will always identify & support these universities.

This is the brand I’ve maintained on this board needs to be nurtured, protected and further marketed. The David v Goliath story line- where the smaller is quite capable of knocking the giant down…. .small private universities of faith that control their own destiny without football money. Tell me that even a casual fan would not find this a compelling brand?

The wrong thing to do in my judgment is to wash away that brand with a collection of public v private v large v small institutions that have no historical connection and risk losing this brand, reducing you to a confusing group of elite basketball schools but share no values or common problems. IMHO your BE Presidents want to be affiliated with their peers and like-minded institutions with top BB programs- so endowment & academic reputation is important, being private likely is, geography not so much (TV revenue is going to be there with any footprint due to high the level of BB competition) unless student athlete travel is too difficult.

In the WAC and more so the A10 are found the best expansion candidates (Notre Dame just too arrogant to see that their non-football sports teams need to be in the BE). Most of these universities below should not be dismissed as mid-majors any more than DePaul, St John’s or Seton Hall should be today or that Butler, Creighton or Xavier were at one time in the past. And many of these so called “mid majors” candidates would fit in the BE seamlessly & bring name recognition and a high ceiling to your league in a short period of time due to your excellent brand (I think this is why my X friends on this board are so adamant that UD never be considered but I digress). True today they need you more than you need them- I'm talking expansion sometime down the road.

Stay true to the brand and cultivate the relationship with the next group of candidates. Schedule them often; root for them as they are not your competitors as their conferences simply do not compare. Be patient, choose your time & pick wisely but stay true to the brand- you have the keys to the clubhouse.
Below is a list - it seems to me some of these candidates fit in pretty well today… (apologize for the awkward formatting)

School…………..Students…….US News Ranking……Private v Public…….Affiliation……Endowment……NCAAT games last 10 years
Butler………………4,800…………..2 Reg MidW………….Private………………….N/A…………… 190M……………………24
Creighton………..8,400…………..1 Reg MidW………….Private…………………Catholic…………450M…………………….7
Georgetown…… 19,000…………20…………………………..Private………………..Catholic………1.5B………………………14
DePaul…………….23,000…………124………………………..Private………………..Catholic…………440M…………………….0
St John's…………. 21,000…………164………………………..Private…………………Catholic…………686M…………………….2
Seton Hall………..10,000…………118………………………..Private………………..Catholic………264M…………………….1
Providence…….. 4,700…………..1 Reg North………….Private…………………Catholic…………209M…………………….4
Villanova………… 11,000…………50………………………….Private…………………Catholic…………564M……………………23
Marquette……… 11,000…………86……………………….…Private…………………Catholic…………550M……………………16
Xavier……………..6,300………….4 Reg MidW………...Private………………….Catholic…………156M……………………22

St Louis…………..13,000…………96………………………….Private………………….Catholic………….1.1B……………………..6
Dayton…………… 11,000………..111……………………….Private…………………..Catholic………….500M…………………..10
Gonzaga…………. 7,500…………..4 Reg West…….……Private…………………..Catholic…………217M……………………22
St Mary's………… 4,000……………9 Reg West………….Private…………………….Catholic………..170M…………………..7
VCU………………..31,000…………..164………………………Public………………………N/A………………1.6B………………….17
Davidson………… 1,800…………….9 Lib Arts…………….Private…………………….Presbyterian…681M………………….8
St Bonaventure..2,000…………..22 Reg North……….Private…………………….Catholic…………63M……………………1
Wichita St………..15,000…………..Not Ranked……….Public……………………….N/A………………235M…………………..14
BYU..............33,500..........68...................Private................ Mormon........1.6B................12
Connecticut.....27,000..........60..................Public.................N/A.............364M................21

[GoldenWarrior11]

Thanks for the table, UD. Great information to compare/contrast for all of the schools. Thanks for taking the time to type up.

One area I would love to look at for all of the schools (both current members and potential members) is athletic budget. With all of the serious candidates being private, I would love to know how the athletic spending compares. If you are spending on basketball, that should be a big green check for potential candidates (including institution, location, academics and past/potential success).

[adoraz]

I am rooting for potential expansion teams to do well (VCU, Dayton, Gonzaga, etc), or in the case of UConn to perform poorly to force them to reconsider their strategy. Teams like St. B's aren't yet in the *potential* category IMO.

Obviously for now no expansion should be done, unless something dramatic happens.

Speaking of UConn, RPI Forecast gives them an insanely low probability of finishing with a top 50 RPI. Of course they could always win the AAC tournament, but really the team is in big trouble.

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Connecticut.html

[GoldenWarrior11]

Jeff Goodman story on the job security status of Kevin Ollie. How long does his get out of jail card last? UConn has not been nationally relevant in 2+ years since winning the national championship (with Calhoun's players no less).

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/18370895/can-uconn-coach-kevin-ollie-get-huskies-back-track

UConn is and has been in BIG trouble since the split - but don't try saying that to UConn fans.

[stever20]

It's really had nothing to do with the split- but more so the coaching. I mean, recruiting hasn't been hampered at all.

BUT look at the records in OOC play the last 3 years...
2014-15 season 7-5
2015-16 season 10-3
2016-17 season 4-6 vs d1
that's 21-14 last 3 years OOC now. 22-16 if you count postseason play.

It's idiotic to say that the AAC has caused that. They're recruiting at a high level. If the recruiting wasn't good, then you'd have a whole hell of a case that the AAC has caused their problems. It hasn't. This year, they've been unlucky with all their injuries.

[Bill Marsh]

Jeff Goodman story on the job security status of Kevin Ollie. How long does his get out of jail card last? UConn has not been nationally relevant in 2+ years since winning the national championship (with Calhoun's players no less).

Calhoun's players? Well, given that Ollie was the chief recruiter who recruited them, that they got most of their minutes on the court under Ollie, and that Ollie coached them at least as long as Calhoun did (2 years) - more in most cases - it's a stretch to say that he won with Calhoun's players.

What really makes the statement silly is that UConn didn't beat anyone that year because they had superior talent. This was not Pitino leaving Tubby Smith a ready made championship team. UConn won the championship because Ollie did a great coaching job in that tournament. Anyone who watched the games knows that. Calhoun simply did not leave him a championship caliber roster.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

One area I would love to look at for all of the schools (both current members and potential members) is athletic budget. With all of the serious candidates being private, I would love to know how the athletic spending compares. If you are spending on basketball, that should be a big green check for potential candidates (including institution, location, academics and past/potential success).

Link to lengthy original post excerpted below:

The financial impact of championship basketball – April 6, 2016

Data that UConn submitted to the U.S. Department of Education shows that for the 2014-2015 academic year, UConn's men's basketball team, which has won the national title four times since 1999, cost UConn $8.6 million while it earned $9.6 million in revenue – a profit of $ 1.3 million.

With a 2015 Revenue of $ 9.6 million and a 2015 Profit of $ 1.3 million, UConn did not make the Forbes list of College Basketball's 20 Most Valuable Teams. Please note that in the excerpt below, I have intentionally omitted Team Values, as Forbes’ valuation methodology has not been disclosed.

College Basketball's 20 Most Valuable Teams - 2016 - Forbes - March 14, 2016

17. Dayton – 2015 Revenue: $ 12.9 million. 2015 Profit: $ 7.2 million.

19. Xavier – 2015 Revenue: $ 12.1 million. 2015 Profit: $ 6.6 million.

20. Marquette – 2015 Revenue: $ 15.3 million. 2015 Profit: $ 6.3 million.

[Gopher+RamFan]

Stay true to the brand and cultivate the relationship with the next group of candidates. Schedule them often; root for them as they are not your competitors as their conferences simply do not compare. Be patient, choose your time & pick wisely but stay true to the brand- you have the keys to the clubhouse.
Below is a list - it seems to me some of these candidates fit in pretty well today… (apologize for the awkward formatting)

School…………..Students…….US News Ranking……Private v Public…….Affiliation……Endowment……NCAAT games last 10 years
Butler………………4,800…………..2 Reg MidW………….Private………………….N/A…………… 190M……………………24
Creighton………..8,400…………..1 Reg MidW………….Private…………………Catholic…………450M…………………….7
Georgetown…… 19,000…………20…………………………..Private………………..Catholic………1.5B………………………14
DePaul…………….23,000…………124………………………..Private………………..Catholic…………440M…………………….0
St John's…………. 21,000…………164………………………..Private…………………Catholic…………686M…………………….2
Seton Hall………..10,000…………118………………………..Private………………..Catholic………264M…………………….1
Providence…….. 4,700…………..1 Reg North………….Private…………………Catholic…………209M…………………….4
Villanova………… 11,000…………50………………………….Private…………………Catholic…………564M……………………23
Marquette……… 11,000…………86……………………….…Private…………………Catholic…………550M……………………16
Xavier……………..6,300………….4 Reg MidW………...Private………………….Catholic…………156M……………………22

St Louis…………..13,000…………96………………………….Private………………….Catholic………….1.1B……………………..6
Dayton…………… 11,000………..111……………………….Private…………………..Catholic………….500M…………………..10
Gonzaga…………. 7,500…………..4 Reg West…….……Private…………………..Catholic…………217M……………………22
St Mary's………… 4,000……………9 Reg West………….Private…………………….Catholic………..170M…………………..7
VCU………………..31,000…………..164………………………Public………………………N/A……………….650M………………….17
Davidson………… 1,800…………….9 Lib Arts…………….Private…………………….Presbyterian…681M………………….8
St Bonaventure..2,000…………..22 Reg North……….Private…………………….Catholic…………63M……………………1
Wichita St………..15,000…………..Not Ranked……….Public……………………….N/A………………235M…………………..14

Just to clarify, VCU's endowment is currently $1.638zBillion. The schools grand focus is to become a large research university, having done $240 million in sponsored research this past year. VCU would have the largest student population and endowment in the big East - but be tied at the bottom in academic ranking with SJU.