Biggest surprise?

[hoyahooligan]

Biggest Positive Surprise: Butler.

Biggest Negative Surprise: Xavier. Xavier hasn't even been that bad, but still expected more from them so far.

[stever20]

just looking at Ken Pom- from their first game until now.

biggest plusses
Creighton 32 to 21 +11
St John's 108 to 98 +10
Marquette 47 to 38 +9
Butler 22 to 17 +5

biggest negatives:
DePaul 171 to 198 -27
Georgetown 30 to 50 -20
Seton Hall 38 to 49 -11
Xavier 11 to 19 -8

PC and Nova btw +2 and +1.

Also, to DudeAnon talking about Butler. I really don't think what you said about Butler last year is all that fair. They went thru some stuff last year that would have brought down a lot of programs a lot further down than it did Butler. Also, their OOC schedule far better this season vs last season.

[GumbyDamnit!]

1). Until the BC loss: PC. Really thought they'd struggle this year. Not sure if the can finish top 1/2 of the league but they're def better than I predicted.

2). SJU. I expected a big step further. I thought Sima and Yawke we're going to progress from their promising year last year and Lovett and Ponds would provide them with stability on the perimeter. So very disappointed at just how incredibly inconsistent they've been so far.

[Bill Marsh]

just looking at Ken Pom- from their first game until now.

biggest plusses
Creighton 32 to 21 +11
St John's 108 to 98 +10
Marquette 47 to 38 +9
Butler 22 to 17 +5

biggest negatives:
DePaul 171 to 198 -27
Georgetown 30 to 50 -20
Seton Hall 38 to 49 -11
Xavier 11 to 19 -8

PC and Nova btw +2 and +1.

Also, to DudeAnon talking about Butler. I really don't think what you said about Butler last year is all that fair. They went thru some stuff last year that would have brought down a lot of programs a lot further down than it did Butler. Also, their OOC schedule far better this season vs last season.

Ken Pom's ratings are notoriously unreliable early in the season. Once they've built up enough of a body of work in the current season, then they get better.

[Bill Marsh]

1). Until the BC loss: PC. Really thought they'd struggle this year. Not sure if the can finish top 1/2 of the league but they're def better than I predicted.

2). SJU. I expected a big step further. I thought Sima and Yawke we're going to progress from their promising year last year and Lovett and Ponds would provide them with stability on the perimeter. So very disappointed at just how incredibly inconsistent they've been so far.

I really think that St John's is very young. As good as some of their talent is, we're still talking about their 2 primary guards being first year players. When those decision makers get more experience, there will be improvement. They're also very small in the backcourt, which hurts them on the defensive end.

With the additions of Justin Simon, Zach Brown, and Marvin Clarke, st John's will experience a very big upgrade in size, physicality, and talent next year. That's when I'd look for improvement to start to show up in the results.

[DudeAnon]

Also, to DudeAnon talking about Butler. I really don't think what you said about Butler last year is all that fair. They went thru some stuff last year that would have brought down a lot of programs a lot further down than it did Butler. Also, their OOC schedule far better this season vs last season.

I mean, they went through some stuff but that is pretty much impossible to account for, so I just go by game results. Last year in OOCwon @Cincinnati, beat Purdue, Tennessee and Temple. So they did pretty well.

And to Bill's point about the preseason metrics being unreliable. 100% agree. Anyone who watched last year's Butler team saw how much of that team ran through Dunham and Jones. For them to be playing this well without them is a testament to great coaching and players accepting new responsibilities.

[stever20]

Also, to DudeAnon talking about Butler. I really don't think what you said about Butler last year is all that fair. They went thru some stuff last year that would have brought down a lot of programs a lot further down than it did Butler. Also, their OOC schedule far better this season vs last season.

I mean, they went through some stuff but that is pretty much impossible to account for, so I just go by game results. Last year in OOCwon @Cincinnati, beat Purdue, Tennessee and Temple. So they did pretty well.

And to Bill's point about the preseason metrics being unreliable. 100% agree. Anyone who watched last year's Butler team saw how much of that team ran through Dunham and Jones. For them to be playing this well without them is a testament to great coaching and players accepting new responsibilities.

what part of beating 15-19 Tennessee is supposed to be impressive? Their OOC SOS last year in RPI was 183. In Ken Pom it was 197. This year it's projected to be #22 and #73 in Ken Pom. So it's night and day as far as OOC schedule for Butler. They've done far more OOC this year vs last year.

[DudeAnon]

Also, to DudeAnon talking about Butler. I really don't think what you said about Butler last year is all that fair. They went thru some stuff last year that would have brought down a lot of programs a lot further down than it did Butler. Also, their OOC schedule far better this season vs last season.

I mean, they went through some stuff but that is pretty much impossible to account for, so I just go by game results. Last year in OOCwon @Cincinnati, beat Purdue, Tennessee and Temple. So they did pretty well.

And to Bill's point about the preseason metrics being unreliable. 100% agree. Anyone who watched last year's Butler team saw how much of that team ran through Dunham and Jones. For them to be playing this well without them is a testament to great coaching and players accepting new responsibilities.

what part of beating 15-19 Tennessee is supposed to be impressive? Their OOC SOS last year in RPI was 183. In Ken Pom it was 197. This year it's projected to be #22 and #73 in Ken Pom. So it's night and day as far as OOC schedule for Butler. They've done far more OOC this year vs last year.

I hope your New Year's Resolution is to be less of an annoying twat.

Last year they entered conference play ranked #9. This year they enter ranked #13. Does that help?

[stever20]

Last year they entered conference play ranked #9. This year they enter ranked #13. Does that help?

Human Polls are pretty much totally meaningless, so not really. Butler this point last year was #23 in the RPI. This year, they are #11 in the RPI. Yeah, I'd take this year 100% of the time over last year. beating Arizona and Indiana means far more than beating Purdue and Temple.

[stever20]

digging a bit- looking at Ken Pom's minutes continuity...
#39 Seton Hall 66.2%
#50 Villanova 65.0%
#79 Creighton 60.3%
#138 Marquette 54.1%
#151 Georgetown 53.2%
#161 Providence 52.2%
#163 Butler 51.8%
#213 Xavier 46.6%
#261 DePaul 40.0%
#269 St John's 38.7%

So with this we can see why Seton Hall, Nova, and Creighton have gotten off to good starts.

And we can kind of see some of why Xavier has struggled early compared to expectations(though will say 10-2 with only losses to Baylor and Colorado- isn't bad at all).

Butler has come together pretty quickly compared to expectations. Next week will say a ton about just how good Butler is. in a 7 day period have Providence, Villanova, and @ Georgetown. Part of a 16 day period where they get those 3 along with @ Creighton, Xavier, and @ Marquette. So all 3 of the other favorites.