CBS: 7 Big East teams

[stever20]

was looking last year at the RPI forecast thread that I did comparing RPI projections at start of conference season with end of reg season RPI's....

Xavier 3.8 vs 6 -2.2
Nova 9.5 vs 3 +6.5
Butler 18.4 vs 46 -29.6
PC 33.9 vs 44 -10.1
SH 59.8 vs 33 +26.8
Cre 90.7 vs 99 -8.3
Geo 107.2 vs 104 +3.2
Marq 123.9 vs 108 +15.9
DeP 145.3 vs 186 -40.7
SJ 211.9 vs 233 -21.1

don't think anyone saw Butler's struggles early in the conference season. And didn't see Seton Hall going the way they did either. Outside of those 2, really top 7 were all pretty accurate.

It's also interesting to note that Villanova won only one BE tournament after dominating as regular season champs the past 3 years. So, it's almost to be expected that there will be a surprise in the tournament and someone from outside the top 4 might steal the auto bid.

Folks say that but look at where the conference champ came from last 3 years. 3 seed, 1 seed, 3 seed. I wouldn't really count on a surprise in the tourney to get an extra tourney team. Last year the semi-finals were 1/4 and 2/3.

[Bill Marsh]

was looking last year at the RPI forecast thread that I did comparing RPI projections at start of conference season with end of reg season RPI's....

Xavier 3.8 vs 6 -2.2
Nova 9.5 vs 3 +6.5
Butler 18.4 vs 46 -29.6
PC 33.9 vs 44 -10.1
SH 59.8 vs 33 +26.8
Cre 90.7 vs 99 -8.3
Geo 107.2 vs 104 +3.2
Marq 123.9 vs 108 +15.9
DeP 145.3 vs 186 -40.7
SJ 211.9 vs 233 -21.1

don't think anyone saw Butler's struggles early in the conference season. And didn't see Seton Hall going the way they did either. Outside of those 2, really top 7 were all pretty accurate.

It's also interesting to note that Villanova won only one BE tournament after dominating as regular season champs the past 3 years. So, it's almost to be expected that there will be a surprise in the tournament and someone from outside the top 4 might steal the auto bid.

Folks say that but look at where the conference champ came from last 3 years. 3 seed, 1 seed, 3 seed. I wouldn't really count on a surprise in the tourney to get an extra tourney team. Last year the semi-finals were 1/4 and 2/3.

Nope. Providence was a 4-seed when they won in 2014. If a 4-seed won the tournament, is it such a stretch to think that a 5-seed might do it one year?

[stever20]

ok a 5 seed may get it some year. But that's still not going to be a bid thief. It is a stretch to see a 6 or 7 or 8 seed doing it.

[stever20]

Just looking at Ken Pom's projections coinciding with RPI forecast- paints a really interesting picture for Big East come tourney time....

Nova 15-3 28-3 2.2 proj RPI
Butler 12-6 23-7 10.4
Xavier 11-7 21-10 18.0
Creighton 11-7 23-7 22.2
Marquette 9-9 18-12 64.2
Seton Hall 9-9 19-11 43.6
Providence 8-10 19-12 51.9
Georgetown 8-10 17-14 63.4
St John's 4-14 9-22 200.0
DePaul 3-15 10-20 212.8

If that happened I'd say Nova, Butler, Xavier, Creighton, and Seton Hall all extremely safe. Marquette would likely need a win over either Xavier or Creighton to seal their spot. Providence and Georgetown would both have shots to make the tourney if they pulled QF upsets over Nova and Butler.

Yes, I said it. There is a chance of 8 teams in the tourney. But also, a better chance of only 5 in the tourney.