(1) Sunday Game 12/18 - psu v SJU

[Red Rooster]

Bill, that's too funny...what a small world. Such a tiny sub-field in the psychology world as well. I understand rebuilds are exhausting and will test even the most loyal fans, but the truth is that if you are on the right track doing so, there will be indications backed by evidence. For example, when Lavin came he inherited an experienced group. He actually exceeded expectations with them. After that, we knew it would be a rough year with that huge freshmen class even if it was #2 in the country. They finished 13-19 (6-12) in the OLD Big East. All freshmen! A new coach! For comparison, Mullin came and we went I believe 8-24 (1-17) in a good but less competitive conference than it was. Lavin's 2nd year he finished over .500, a clear improvement. The following year, he won 20 games. So that was a clear trajectory 13, 17, then 20 wins. Lavin's issue was that his teams were very late starters and severely underperformed in the post season for the ones they did make. I don't think SJ won any Big East or NCAA tourney games in his 5 years as coach. Just making the tourney is not good enough when you had the #2 class in the country. They should have been a Sweet 16 team. So that's why he was fired...got off to bad starts, only picked it up at the end of the season, then if he made a tourney he bowed out immediately. Let's compare to Mullin...he won 8 games his first year with some very experienced players, though he gets a pass. Fine, year 2 he finally gets his guys and he's expected to make a significant leap right? A reasonable expectation would be 13-15 wins in year 2. At 5-7 and about to be 5-8, where are the wins coming from? The only thing I can see potentially is sweeping DePaul and even that may be daunting. Let's assume we do sweep. That's likely 7-25 (2-16). How can you explain this regression assuming it happens which it is projected to? To see not only a lack of progression, but rather a regression is very concerning. There are some who say it's not the coaching, we just don't have any big men. Ok, well next year we will have Clark, possibly Brown, and likely someone else not on the team yet. If Mullin wants to continue coaching next year and we don't see an absolutely massive improvement in the wins column, every other excuse has been used. It's amazing to me how much people love saying "relax we are young!" as if we should expect single digit win seasons until they become seniors then magically win 30 games after winning 8, 7, and 9 previously. It's nutty. Penn State is a top 10 YOUNGEST team in the country. I believe we are #2. They had absolutely no issue disposing of us and looking like a well-oiled machine despite their youth. That excuse is gone after PSU.

I would be willing to bet good money that Mullin would not even lead us to more than 15 wins if he even stays for next season. I mean, do we have to give Mullin 20 years to make an NIT? Why do we have to be so patient when it's clearly not working? My hope is that Mullin walks away and goes back to being the godlike figure he is at SJ...as a former player. IMO the quicker we put this brief era in the rearview, the better. For the life of me, I just cannot fathom anyone actually expecting this to suddenly turn around next season. It's not like we have 4 top 10 players coming in. If we did then I'd say, hang on let's see what they can do because that can change a program. But the truth is, the BEST case scenario for Mullin next season would be 15 wins and he should be at 20+ with the talent given by next year. I had a great sense with Lavin that something wasn't right fundamentally with Lavin teams and I never felt confident we could win a tournament game in the Big East or NCAA's. We never rose to the occasion. I feel strongly that Mullin will not be able to take us where we need to go. If we were willing to give him a 25 year window then MAYBE, but the truth is if he can't produce in a real way in year 3, we know what will happen.

Maybe St John's should have kept Lavin, eh?

By the way, Lavin's #2 rated recruiting class was only #2 on paper. One left for the NBA after his freshmen season (Mo Harkless), one guy never made it to campus (Norvel Pelle), one left 9 games into that particular season (Nurideen Lindsey), one was ineligible for the fall semester, and then left to go play baseball after his sophomore season (Amir Garrett), and the other was ineligible, and part of the 2012 class (instead of his orginal class of 2011), before playing two seasons and bolting to the NBA (JaKarr Sampson).

St. John's still had some solid wins and decent seasons during the 2011 recruiting class time in school. But, Lavin's time at St. John's may have started ticking with the 2011 class, and the issues surrounded by it. Imagine, if all of those kids were initially eligible, and played together for two or more seasons. There could've been a different outcome for Lavin and the program.

It probably was time for Lavin to depart, but some of these posters are quick to bitch, Marsh. I also think Lavin may have been tiring of some of the BS going on, as well. Maybe, Lavin's prostate cancer sapped some of his energy. Who knows? I do know he gave St. John's, at least, a bit of fun basketball for the first time since Jarvis was roaming the sidelines at St. John's.

I'll give Mullin the remainder of the season, but something tells me this will get worse or status quo (which, is still bad). There are things you look for even in losing games or a rebuild. It's not that they're losing; it's how they're losing. If those same patterns or habits continue to repeat themselves, then typically there is an issue with the coaching.

I'd like to see some progression throughout the remainder of the season. If that happens, then they'll end winning a couple games against the better teams in the conference. As a team, they can shoot it from deep. They just need to play smarter ball and much tougher defense (which, has been totally, non-existant and probably, the worst I've witnessed while watching St. John's basketball), and they'll surprise some people. Currently, I truly sense they're being failed by the suits on the sidelines. They have a couple months to reel back in some fans who are on the ledge or have jumped ship.

[stever20]

Here's the thing with their shooting deep...

St John's has played 7 teams in the Ken Pom 201 or worse. In those 7 games, they are shooting a whopping 84-184- or 45.7%

St John's has played 5 teams in the Ken Pom top 109. In those 5 games, they are shooting 40-119- or 33.6%

So their shooting looks great because of the craptastic teams they've faced- the 45.7% would be best in the country. When they've played real opponents, at 33.6%- that would be only 209th in the country.

They're going to be facing far more teams in the top 109 than sub 200. Actually rest of season right now it's 19 games vs top 109, 0 games vs sub 200. Let's see how real that shooting actually is.

[billyjack]

Give Mullin a few more years, and if he then decides to move on, get Billy Donovan.
By that time, Donovan will be bored with the NBA. SJU and NYC would be perfect for him.

You do understand that if Billy Donovan comes back to college, it's going to be a much better program than St John's. I wouldn't be surprised if he replaced Pitino frankly at Louisville.

I agree, if Mullin decides to move on in a few years, Billy Donovan would be an absolutely perfect fit for St John's.

[stever20]

Give Mullin a few more years, and if he then decides to move on, get Billy Donovan.
By that time, Donovan will be bored with the NBA. SJU and NYC would be perfect for him.

You do understand that if Billy Donovan comes back to college, it's going to be a much better program than St John's. I wouldn't be surprised if he replaced Pitino frankly at Louisville.

I agree, if Mullin decides to move on in a few years, Billy Donovan would be an absolutely perfect fit for St John's.

I didn't say that. There would be next to no chance he would go to a program like St John's.

Like it or not, the St John's program right now just isn't a good job. Billy Donovan would have his choice of jobs.

[Bill Marsh]

Bill, that's too funny...what a small world. Such a tiny sub-field in the psychology world as well. I understand rebuilds are exhausting and will test even the most loyal fans, but the truth is that if you are on the right track doing so, there will be indications backed by evidence. For example, when Lavin came he inherited an experienced group. He actually exceeded expectations with them. After that, we knew it would be a rough year with that huge freshmen class even if it was #2 in the country. They finished 13-19 (6-12) in the OLD Big East. All freshmen! A new coach! For comparison, Mullin came and we went I believe 8-24 (1-17) in a good but less competitive conference than it was. Lavin's 2nd year he finished over .500, a clear improvement. The following year, he won 20 games. So that was a clear trajectory 13, 17, then 20 wins. Lavin's issue was that his teams were very late starters and severely underperformed in the post season for the ones they did make. I don't think SJ won any Big East or NCAA tourney games in his 5 years as coach. Just making the tourney is not good enough when you had the #2 class in the country. They should have been a Sweet 16 team. So that's why he was fired...got off to bad starts, only picked it up at the end of the season, then if he made a tourney he bowed out immediately. Let's compare to Mullin...he won 8 games his first year with some very experienced players, though he gets a pass. Fine, year 2 he finally gets his guys and he's expected to make a significant leap right? A reasonable expectation would be 13-15 wins in year 2. At 5-7 and about to be 5-8, where are the wins coming from? The only thing I can see potentially is sweeping DePaul and even that may be daunting. Let's assume we do sweep. That's likely 7-25 (2-16). How can you explain this regression assuming it happens which it is projected to? To see not only a lack of progression, but rather a regression is very concerning. There are some who say it's not the coaching, we just don't have any big men. Ok, well next year we will have Clark, possibly Brown, and likely someone else not on the team yet. If Mullin wants to continue coaching next year and we don't see an absolutely massive improvement in the wins column, every other excuse has been used. It's amazing to me how much people love saying "relax we are young!" as if we should expect single digit win seasons until they become seniors then magically win 30 games after winning 8, 7, and 9 previously. It's nutty. Penn State is a top 10 YOUNGEST team in the country. I believe we are #2. They had absolutely no issue disposing of us and looking like a well-oiled machine despite their youth. That excuse is gone after PSU.

I would be willing to bet good money that Mullin would not even lead us to more than 15 wins if he even stays for next season. I mean, do we have to give Mullin 20 years to make an NIT? Why do we have to be so patient when it's clearly not working? My hope is that Mullin walks away and goes back to being the godlike figure he is at SJ...as a former player. IMO the quicker we put this brief era in the rearview, the better. For the life of me, I just cannot fathom anyone actually expecting this to suddenly turn around next season. It's not like we have 4 top 10 players coming in. If we did then I'd say, hang on let's see what they can do because that can change a program. But the truth is, the BEST case scenario for Mullin next season would be 15 wins and he should be at 20+ with the talent given by next year. I had a great sense with Lavin that something wasn't right fundamentally with Lavin teams and I never felt confident we could win a tournament game in the Big East or NCAA's. We never rose to the occasion. I feel strongly that Mullin will not be able to take us where we need to go. If we were willing to give him a 25 year window then MAYBE, but the truth is if he can't produce in a real way in year 3, we know what will happen.

Maybe St John's should have kept Lavin, eh?

By the way, Lavin's #2 rated recruiting class was only #2 on paper. One left for the NBA after his freshmen season (Mo Harkless), one guy never made it to campus (Norvel Pelle), one left 9 games into that particular season (Nurideen Lindsey), one was ineligible for the fall semester, and then left to go play baseball after his sophomore season (Amir Garrett), and the other was ineligible, and part of the 2012 class (instead of his orginal class of 2011), before playing two seasons and bolting to the NBA (JaKarr Sampson).

St. John's still had some solid wins and decent seasons during the 2011 recruiting class time in school. But, Lavin's time at St. John's may have started ticking with the 2011 class, and the issues surrounded by it. Imagine, if all of those kids were initially eligible, and played together for two or more seasons. There could've been a different outcome for Lavin and the program.

It probably was time for Lavin to depart, but some of these posters are quick to bitch, Marsh. I also think Lavin may have been tiring of some of the BS going on, as well. Maybe, Lavin's prostate cancer sapped some of his energy. Who knows? I do know he gave St. John's, at least, a bit of fun basketball for the first time since Jarvis was roaming the sidelines at St. John's.

I'll give Mullin the remainder of the season, but something tells me this will get worse or status quo (which, is still bad). There are things you look for even in losing games or a rebuild. It's not that they're losing; it's how they're losing. If those same patterns or habits continue to repeat themselves, then typically there is an issue with the coaching.

I'd like to see some progression throughout the remainder of the season. If that happens, then they'll end winning a couple games against the better teams in the conference. As a team, they can shoot it from deep. They just need to play smarter ball and much tougher defense (which, has been totally, non-existant and probably, the worst I've witnessed while watching St. John's basketball), and they'll surprise some people. Currently, I truly sense they're being failed by the suits on the sidelines. They have a couple months to reel back in some fans who are on the ledge or have jumped ship.

I agree with your analysis of the 2011 recruiting class. Not only did they lose a bunch of them quickly, but there wasn't anyone in that group ranked higher than #40. So, it's strength was in its numbers, not in bringing in any immediate impact players. When the numbers were depleted so quickly, so was much of the value that led to its high ranking. They still had some good players from that group who hung around for 4 years in Pointer, Harrison, and Greene, but given the early defections t's not like they underachieved.

Lavin's health also has to be factored in not only because it may have sapped his energy but because he hardly coached that first season - maybe 7-8 games? So it's hard to blame him for defections or lack of development in 2011-12 because he was hardly there. Unfortunate.

What goes on in games right now is visible, but what really matters for the long haul is the teaching that's going on in practice. I'd love to hear from someone who drops in on those.

[hoyahooligan]

From what I heard Mullin sold his house just so he could move school districts he's not leaving, just moving to another part of New York City.

[SJHooper]

It would make no sense for Mullin to move for school districts. He lived on Long Island which has much, much, much better school districts for the most part than the neighboring city even if they are private.

Yes I would be absolutely beside myself if Billy Donovan came, but he's not coming. He's in the NBA making $6 million with a good team. To take a massive pay cut to come to our dumpster fire would take the craziest loyalty. I didn't realize how old McKillop was...I'd prefer someone younger, but if he took an assistant role that would be fantastic. He could still pass on his knowledge and help out a likely younger head coach, but could leave after a few years since he's getting up there. Assuming there's zero chance for Donovan (which seems to be the case), my main target would be Dan Hurley. From what I remember he wanted to stay at URI because he wanted to be there for his seniors he was so close with, but after this year they're gone and he can be swayed IMO. He will start making $1 million next season and SJ can double that figure while getting him into a major conference with national TV coverage every game. By the way, no I don't miss Lavin. I still remember clearly how I felt when he was coach. The team would be so sloppy early in the season and he would always assure us we would turn it around in February. The funny part is one year he was totally right, but come tourney time the team choked every single time. Imagine waiting for a Big East or NCAA tourney game to start knowing in your gut you were almost guaranteed to lose. They had no killer instinct and never got up for the big games. The only postseason victories he had were: 1) the Rutgers game in the Big East Tourney that ended in a very controversial way after we threw the ball out of bounds before the buzzer and 2) When Pointer hit a buzzer beating mid range shot in the first round of the NIT against St. Joseph's. That was it...in 5 years! Not only did he not win when it counted most, he had very poor player development skills. Pointer was a Jordan Brand All American and he was atrocious for 3 years and FINALLY looked good senior year. I don't even attribute that to Lavin, I attribute it to him getting better from experience.

Getting Donovan or Hurley while keeping Matt A and hopefully Ponds and LoVett would be a fantastic start. We'd have our experienced coach and we'd have our big time recruiter. If that team failed after 5 years, at least you'd know it's not due to recruiting or coaching.

[Linda Mirabella]

Wow just watched the game! Is St. John's that bad? What about Chris Mullin? Is he the coach or st. Jean?

[billyjack]

Donovan is in Year 2 of 5 at Oklahoma City. Mullin is also in Year 2 of i think a 5 year deal also. If Mullin chooses to move on in several years, the timing would be perfect.

St John's is absolutely considered a top job in college basketball despite what some people might want you to believe.

Donovan grew up 20 minutes from SJU, and is a Big East guy, those are his roots, and absolutely understands the lure of NYC, Midtown Manhattan, the bright lights, and coaching in the greatest city in the world, in the most famous arena in the world, in the best conference in the country, home of the defending national champions. This would be a perfect fit... you couldn't design a better candidate, it'd be out of a freakin Hollywood movie.

And he's a guy that has nothing to prove, and i could see him accepting the challenge of rebuilding New York's team. Yeah, i could see him drawn to other colleges... Kentucky or UCLA or maybe Kansas... not UNC nor Duke nor Georgetown nor Syracuse... either the ultra-blue bloods i mentioned or New York City.

Now it could be that Mullin finds success, so getting Billy The Kid would be unnecessary. Or, Donovan, though he's an eastern guy who grew up just outside of New York, may actually enjoy spending even more time out in Oklahoma, so he may at some point get extended by OKC. But if the timing is right he would absolutely consider the Johnnies' job.

Having said all this, Mullin has a lot of time to right the Johnnies' ship.

[hoyahooligan]

It would make no sense for Mullin to move for school districts. He lived on Long Island which has much, much, much better school districts for the most part than the neighboring city even if they are private.

Just saying what I read that he's moving into Manhattan for schools for his kid.