CBS: 7 Big East teams

[SJHooper]

Would be amazing to get 7 in. I doubt it but slightly possible. Very strange they picked Minnesota to win B1G over Purdue/Wisconsin and Florida to win the SEC over Kentucky. Minnesota will finish towards the bottom of their conference again. They are another Penn State. Always said to have turned the corner but always end up in the bottom because the league is just too strong.

[Bill Marsh]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

There's always the problem of bids getting stolen by upset winners in conference tournaments. Schools like Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette would be among the last teams taken, so they'd be among the first to be eliminated by conference tournament upsets.

TBH, my interest is more in the top of the conference sustaining their early success and going into the tournament strong with the ability to go deep into the tournament. Anyone finishing 5-7 in the conference is likely to get a high seed and exit early anyway. Those losses or even non-appearances will be quickly forgotten if the top of the league repeats Villanova's success of last season or something close to it.

That's way I intentionally made the vague "looks like a very good possibility" qualifier about 6 bids, note I never said or implied it was a lock. As for your finishing 5-7 comment, tell that to Baylor(5th & 5 seed) and Iowa St. (6th & 4 seed).

I based my comment on RPI Forecast to see where they are likely stand in national RPI rankings. Not saying that a team that finishes middle of the pack can't get a hifgher seed, but am talking specifically about this case.

[Bill Marsh]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

There's always the problem of bids getting stolen by upset winners in conference tournaments.Schools like Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette would be among the last teams taken, so they'd be among the first to be eliminated by conference tournament upsets.

TBH, my interest is more in the top of the conference sustaining their early success and going into the tournament strong with the ability to go deep into the tournament. Anyone finishing 5-7 in the conference is likely to get a high seed and exit early anyway. Those losses or even non-appearances will be quickly forgotten if the top of the league repeats Villanova's success of last season or something close to it.

This is going to save me a lot time from watching the actual games this year, can you give me their records now so I can decide if I need to put money aside for postseason travel?

Hey, I'm with you. Hope springs eternal. I hope that Providence goes out and runs the table in conference play.

Given the speculative nature of this thread, I was just posting what I'd speculate where this season might go based on what I've seen so far. I was not posting what I'm hoping or rooting for.

[Edrick]

Seven seems like a lot but with St Johns and DePaul being so mind boggingly terrible, it could very well happen. That team that played SEMO last night, simply, isn't winning more than 1 or 2 conference games -- if that.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

I had a detailed look at this back in August: 2016-17 Preseason Basketball Polls – Post # 12

RPI Forecast is presently predicting that the Top 7 teams will win 75 games and the Bottom 3 teams will win 15 games:

RPI Forecast – Teams # 1 to # 351 . . . RPI Forecast - Big East Conference

Through games of Dec 18, 2016.

Expected RPI: 3
Current RPI: 1
Current OOC Record: 84-25 (0.7706)
Expected OOC Record: 96-29 (0.7680)

Overall - Expected RPI Rank – Team – Projected Regular-season W-L – Projected Conference W-L

1 - 5.0 - Villanova 27-4 (14-4)
12 - 13.7 - Butler 23-7 (12-6)
15 - 18.3 - Xavier 21-10 (11-7)
18 - 22.5 - Creighton 23-7 (11-7)
45 - 54.9 - Providence 19-12 (8-10)
50 - 57.8 - Seton Hall 18-12 (8-10)
55 - 61.5 - Marquette 19-11 (10-8)
64 - 69.5 - Georgetown 17-14 (8-10)
195 - 196.4 - St. John's 9-22 (4-14)
203 - 203.4 - DePaul 11-19 (3-15)

If RPI Forecast is correct, Georgetown will fall on the wrong side of the bubble, and only the Top 4 teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.

Providence and Seton Hall need to go 9-9 in conference play in order to feel confident on Selection Sunday, and Marquette’s projected OOC SOS Ranking of # 197 drags the Golden Eagles’ RPI Ranking into dangerous territory for an at-large bid.

RPI Forecast – Georgetown Hoyas

Date – Opponent (Opponent’s Projected RPI Ranking) – Venue – Chance of Winning – Projected Point Margin

12-28 - Marquette (61.5) - Away - 32% -5.3
1-4 - Providence (54.9) - Away - 40% -3.0
1-16 - Providence (54.9) - Home - 60% 3.1
2-4 - Seton Hall (57.8) - Home - 61% 3.4
2-11 - Marquette (61.5) - Home - 53% 0.8
2-28 - Seton Hall (57.8) - Away - 41% -2.7

As might be expected, RPI Forecast projects Georgetown to win their home games and lose their away games against the three BE bubble teams.

Bottom Line: in order for the Big East to get 7 teams into the NCAA Tournament, Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette all need more conference wins than projected, and at the expense of Villanova, Butler, Xavier, and Creighton, and Georgetown - which is possible, but highly improbable.

EDIT: Error pointed out by Hall2012 in post below corrected. Thanks Hall2012.

[Hall2012]

I had a look at this back in August: 2016-17 Preseason Basketball Polls – Post # 12

RPI Forecast is presently predicting that the Top 7 teams will win 75 games and the Bottom 3 teams will win 15 games:

RPI Forecast – Teams # 1 to # 351 . . . RPI Forecast - Big East Conference

Through games of Dec 18, 2016.

Expected RPI: 3
Current RPI: 1
Current OOC Record: 84-25 (0.7706)
Expected OOC Record: 96-29 (0.7680)

Overall - Expected RPI Rank – Team – Projected Regular-season W-L – Projected Conference W-L

1 - 5.0 - Villanova 27-4 (14-4)
12 - 13.7 - Butler 23-7 (12-6)
15 - 18.3 - Xavier 21-10 (11-7)
18 - 22.5 - Creighton 23-7 (11-7)
45 - 54.9 - Providence 19-12 (8-10)
50 - 57.8 - Seton Hall 18-12 (8-10)
55 - 61.5 - Marquette 19-11 (10-8)
64 - 69.5 - Georgetown 17-14 (8-10)
195 - 196.4 - St. John's 9-22 (4-14)
203 - 203.4 - DePaul 11-19 (3-15)

If RPI Forecast is correct, Georgetown will fall on the wrong side of the bubble, and only the Top 4 teams are locks for the NCAA Tournament.

Providence and Seton Hall need to go 9-9 in conference play in order to feel confident on Selection Sunday, and Marquette’s projected OOC SOS Ranking of # 197 drags the Golden Eagles’ RPI Ranking into dangerous territory for an at-large bid.

RPI Forecast – Georgetown Hoyas

Date – Opponent (Opponent’s Projected RPI Ranking) – Venue – Chance of Winning – Projected Point Margin

12-28 - Marquette (61.5) - Away - 32% -5.3
1-4 - Providence (54.9) - Away - 40% -3.0
1-16 - Providence (54.9) - Home - 60% 3.1
2-4 - Seton Hall (57.8) - Home - 61% 3.4
2-11 - Marquette (61.5) - Home - 53% 0.8
2-28 - Seton Hall (57.8) - Away - 41% -2.7

As might be expected, RPI Forecast projects Georgetown to win their home games and lose their away games against the three BE bubble teams.

Bottom Line: in order for the Big East to get 7 teams into the NCAA Tournament, Providence, Seton Hall, Marquette, and Georgetown all need more conference wins than projected, and at the expense of Villanova, Butler, Xavier, and Creighton, which is possible, but highly improbable.

One issue with your theory - only 3 of the 4 would need "more wins than expected." This forecast (which has a 99+% probability of being incorrect) has Georgetown in 8th. So unless you want to discuss the possibility of the Big East getting 8 bids...

[pc5151]

Odds are better that St Johns and DePaul each go 1-17, so that's 5 more wins to spread around. 5 less RPI killing losses for the other 8 teams as well.

[stever20]

Right- but the odds of Nova, Butler, Xavier, and Creighton to have 24 conference losses are remote as well. That would be 12 losses to the other teams. That's awfully unlikely. 1st and 2nd in the 3 years of the BE have averaged only 6.3 losses combined. 10 is extremely unlikely.

[stever20]

was looking last year at the RPI forecast thread that I did comparing RPI projections at start of conference season with end of reg season RPI's....

Xavier 3.8 vs 6 -2.2
Nova 9.5 vs 3 +6.5
Butler 18.4 vs 46 -29.6
PC 33.9 vs 44 -10.1
SH 59.8 vs 33 +26.8
Cre 90.7 vs 99 -8.3
Geo 107.2 vs 104 +3.2
Marq 123.9 vs 108 +15.9
DeP 145.3 vs 186 -40.7
SJ 211.9 vs 233 -21.1

don't think anyone saw Butler's struggles early in the conference season. And didn't see Seton Hall going the way they did either. Outside of those 2, really top 7 were all pretty accurate.

[Bill Marsh]

was looking last year at the RPI forecast thread that I did comparing RPI projections at start of conference season with end of reg season RPI's....

Xavier 3.8 vs 6 -2.2
Nova 9.5 vs 3 +6.5
Butler 18.4 vs 46 -29.6
PC 33.9 vs 44 -10.1
SH 59.8 vs 33 +26.8
Cre 90.7 vs 99 -8.3
Geo 107.2 vs 104 +3.2
Marq 123.9 vs 108 +15.9
DeP 145.3 vs 186 -40.7
SJ 211.9 vs 233 -21.1

don't think anyone saw Butler's struggles early in the conference season. And didn't see Seton Hall going the way they did either. Outside of those 2, really top 7 were all pretty accurate.

It's also interesting to note that Villanova won only one BE tournament after dominating as regular season champs the past 3 years. So, it's almost to be expected that there will be a surprise in the tournament and someone from outside the top 4 might steal the auto bid.