CBS: 7 Big East teams

[Westbrook#36]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

[stever20]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

I wouldn't call it a very good possibility. If the top 5 teams do extremely well, and 6-8 go like 2-8 vs those 5, it's going to be hard as heck to get 6 in the tourney.

To me, I'd say the odds of getting # of teams-
5 bids- 75%
6 bids- 15%
7 bids- 5%
4 bids- 5%

[Westbrook#36]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

I wouldn't call it a very good possibility. If the top 5 teams do extremely well, and 6-8 go like 2-8 vs those 5, it's going to be hard as heck to get 6 in the tourney.

To me, I'd say the odds of getting # of teams-
5 bids- 75%
6 bids- 15%
7 bids- 5%
4 bids- 5%

Right on cue and utterly predictable. You don't disappoint, or pass up an opportunity to throw shade on the BE.

[Bill Marsh]

Having DePaul and St. John's going 1-17 or 2-16 in league would go a long way in getting 7 teams in. Last year the B12 got 7 teams out of a 10 team league, the bottom 3 teams won a total 10 league games between them. TCU was 2-16, OSU was 3-15, and KSU was 5-13. Everyone else was 9-9(TT) or better.

B12 standings last year: tourney seed in brackets()

Kansas(1) 15-3
WVU(3) 13-5
Okla.(2) 12-6
Texas(6) 11-7
Baylor(5) 10-8
Iowa St.(4) 10-8
Texas T(8) 9-9
Kan. St. 5-13
OSU 3-15
TCU 2-16

The big reason why they got so much was 8 was 5-13. I just don't see Georgetown or Marquette or Providence finishing that weak. It's going to be a very narrow scenario that got the league 7 bids. Heck, 6 bids isn't close to a lock.

They don't need to go 5-13. If DeP and SJU win only 1 or 2 games apiece, #8 can win 7-8 games.

[stever20]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

I wouldn't call it a very good possibility. If the top 5 teams do extremely well, and 6-8 go like 2-8 vs those 5, it's going to be hard as heck to get 6 in the tourney.

To me, I'd say the odds of getting # of teams-
5 bids- 75%
6 bids- 15%
7 bids- 5%
4 bids- 5%

Right on cue and utterly predictable. You don't disappoint, or pass up an opportunity to throw shade on the BE.

Dude, did I say the BE would be lucky to get 5 in? Hell no.
I didn't throw shade on the BE. It's HARD for a 10 team round robin to get a 6th team in the tourney. It literally has to be the right team. Like if Marquette finishes 6th at 9-9, they're going to be pretty problematic to get in the tourney. Once again, as always- conferences don't get teams in the tournament, teams get themselves in the tournament.

Also using the 5 years of the Big 12 with 10, and the 3 years of Big East with 10.... 6th place team has had 10 wins only once. Exactly the same number of times the 6th place team finished with 8 wins.

[stever20]

Having DePaul and St. John's going 1-17 or 2-16 in league would go a long way in getting 7 teams in. Last year the B12 got 7 teams out of a 10 team league, the bottom 3 teams won a total 10 league games between them. TCU was 2-16, OSU was 3-15, and KSU was 5-13. Everyone else was 9-9(TT) or better.

B12 standings last year: tourney seed in brackets()

Kansas(1) 15-3
WVU(3) 13-5
Okla.(2) 12-6
Texas(6) 11-7
Baylor(5) 10-8
Iowa St.(4) 10-8
Texas T(8) 9-9
Kan. St. 5-13
OSU 3-15
TCU 2-16

The big reason why they got so much was 8 was 5-13. I just don't see Georgetown or Marquette or Providence finishing that weak. It's going to be a very narrow scenario that got the league 7 bids. Heck, 6 bids isn't close to a lock.

They don't need to go 5-13. If DeP and SJU win only 1 or 2 games apiece, #8 can win 7-8 games.

True. But you are assuming that Nova is going to lose 3 games, another team 5 games, another team 6 games, and another team 7 games. What if Nova, Butler, Creighton, and Xavier are better than that? That would be 21 losses between the 4 teams- or 9 vs teams 5-10. What if that's only like 4-5?

[Bill Marsh]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

There's always the problem of bids getting stolen by upset winners in conference tournaments. Schools like Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette would be among the last teams taken, so they'd be among the first to be eliminated by conference tournament upsets.

TBH, my interest is more in the top of the conference sustaining their early success and going into the tournament strong with the ability to go deep into the tournament. Anyone finishing 5-7 in the conference is likely to get a high seed and exit early anyway. Those losses or even non-appearances will be quickly forgotten if the top of the league repeats Villanova's success of last season or something close to it.

[cujaysfan]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

I wouldn't call it a very good possibility. If the top 5 teams do extremely well, and 6-8 go like 2-8 vs those 5, it's going to be hard as heck to get 6 in the tourney.

To me, I'd say the odds of getting # of teams-
5 bids- 75%
6 bids- 15%
7 bids- 5%
4 bids- 5%

Right on cue and utterly predictable. You don't disappoint, or pass up an opportunity to throw shade on the BE.

[Westbrook#36]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

There's always the problem of bids getting stolen by upset winners in conference tournaments. Schools like Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette would be among the last teams taken, so they'd be among the first to be eliminated by conference tournament upsets.

TBH, my interest is more in the top of the conference sustaining their early success and going into the tournament strong with the ability to go deep into the tournament. Anyone finishing 5-7 in the conference is likely to get a high seed and exit early anyway. Those losses or even non-appearances will be quickly forgotten if the top of the league repeats Villanova's success of last season or something close to it.

That's way I intentionally made the vague "looks like a very good possibility" qualifier about 6 bids, note I never said or implied it was a lock. As for your finishing 5-7 comment, tell that to Baylor(5th & 5 seed) and Iowa St. (6th & 4 seed).

[FriarJ]

Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.

There's always the problem of bids getting stolen by upset winners in conference tournaments.Schools like Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette would be among the last teams taken, so they'd be among the first to be eliminated by conference tournament upsets.

TBH, my interest is more in the top of the conference sustaining their early success and going into the tournament strong with the ability to go deep into the tournament. Anyone finishing 5-7 in the conference is likely to get a high seed and exit early anyway. Those losses or even non-appearances will be quickly forgotten if the top of the league repeats Villanova's success of last season or something close to it.

This is going to save me a lot time from watching the actual games this year, can you give me their records now so I can decide if I need to put money aside for postseason travel?