Westbrook#36 wrote:Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.
stever20 wrote:Westbrook#36 wrote:Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.
I wouldn't call it a very good possibility. If the top 5 teams do extremely well, and 6-8 go like 2-8 vs those 5, it's going to be hard as heck to get 6 in the tourney.
To me, I'd say the odds of getting # of teams-
5 bids- 75%
6 bids- 15%
7 bids- 5%
4 bids- 5%
stever20 wrote:Westbrook#36 wrote:Having DePaul and St. John's going 1-17 or 2-16 in league would go a long way in getting 7 teams in. Last year the B12 got 7 teams out of a 10 team league, the bottom 3 teams won a total 10 league games between them. TCU was 2-16, OSU was 3-15, and KSU was 5-13. Everyone else was 9-9(TT) or better.
B12 standings last year: tourney seed in brackets()
Kansas(1) 15-3
WVU(3) 13-5
Okla.(2) 12-6
Texas(6) 11-7
Baylor(5) 10-8
Iowa St.(4) 10-8
Texas T(8) 9-9
Kan. St. 5-13
OSU 3-15
TCU 2-16
The big reason why they got so much was 8 was 5-13. I just don't see Georgetown or Marquette or Providence finishing that weak. It's going to be a very narrow scenario that got the league 7 bids. Heck, 6 bids isn't close to a lock.
Westbrook#36 wrote:stever20 wrote:Westbrook#36 wrote:Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.
I wouldn't call it a very good possibility. If the top 5 teams do extremely well, and 6-8 go like 2-8 vs those 5, it's going to be hard as heck to get 6 in the tourney.
To me, I'd say the odds of getting # of teams-
5 bids- 75%
6 bids- 15%
7 bids- 5%
4 bids- 5%
Right on cue and utterly predictable. You don't disappoint, or pass up an opportunity to throw shade on the BE.
Bill Marsh wrote:stever20 wrote:Westbrook#36 wrote:Having DePaul and St. John's going 1-17 or 2-16 in league would go a long way in getting 7 teams in. Last year the B12 got 7 teams out of a 10 team league, the bottom 3 teams won a total 10 league games between them. TCU was 2-16, OSU was 3-15, and KSU was 5-13. Everyone else was 9-9(TT) or better.
B12 standings last year: tourney seed in brackets()
Kansas(1) 15-3
WVU(3) 13-5
Okla.(2) 12-6
Texas(6) 11-7
Baylor(5) 10-8
Iowa St.(4) 10-8
Texas T(8) 9-9
Kan. St. 5-13
OSU 3-15
TCU 2-16
The big reason why they got so much was 8 was 5-13. I just don't see Georgetown or Marquette or Providence finishing that weak. It's going to be a very narrow scenario that got the league 7 bids. Heck, 6 bids isn't close to a lock.
They don't need to go 5-13. If DeP and SJU win only 1 or 2 games apiece, #8 can win 7-8 games.
Westbrook#36 wrote:Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.
Westbrook#36 wrote:stever20 wrote:Westbrook#36 wrote:Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.
I wouldn't call it a very good possibility. If the top 5 teams do extremely well, and 6-8 go like 2-8 vs those 5, it's going to be hard as heck to get 6 in the tourney.
To me, I'd say the odds of getting # of teams-
5 bids- 75%
6 bids- 15%
7 bids- 5%
4 bids- 5%
Right on cue and utterly predictable. You don't disappoint, or pass up an opportunity to throw shade on the BE.
Bill Marsh wrote:Westbrook#36 wrote:Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.
There's always the problem of bids getting stolen by upset winners in conference tournaments. Schools like Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette would be among the last teams taken, so they'd be among the first to be eliminated by conference tournament upsets.
TBH, my interest is more in the top of the conference sustaining their early success and going into the tournament strong with the ability to go deep into the tournament. Anyone finishing 5-7 in the conference is likely to get a high seed and exit early anyway. Those losses or even non-appearances will be quickly forgotten if the top of the league repeats Villanova's success of last season or something close to it.
Bill Marsh wrote:Westbrook#36 wrote:Of course 6 isn't a lock, but it's looking like a very good possibility. 7 is an absolute dream scenario, my post was only meant to show how the win distribution needs to reasonably occur to get 7, that's all, nothing more nothing less. Now comes the inevitable stever post claiming the BE will be lucky to get 5 in and that 6 is a pipe dream, meanwhile the AAC is on schedule to get 5 bids.
There's always the problem of bids getting stolen by upset winners in conference tournaments.Schools like Providence, Seton Hall, and Marquette would be among the last teams taken, so they'd be among the first to be eliminated by conference tournament upsets.
TBH, my interest is more in the top of the conference sustaining their early success and going into the tournament strong with the ability to go deep into the tournament. Anyone finishing 5-7 in the conference is likely to get a high seed and exit early anyway. Those losses or even non-appearances will be quickly forgotten if the top of the league repeats Villanova's success of last season or something close to it.
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