Early look at BE tourney bids

[stever20]

I think Georgetown still has an outside shot.

If we win out OOC we're at 9-4. Go 10-8 say by sweeping Depaul and St. John's getting swept by Nova and splitting with everyone else we'd end up with an RPI of 40. That's a tournament team.

Even if we lost @ cuse and did the rest the same we'd be 18-13 and have and RPI of 50. Go 1-1 in NYC our RPI would be in the 40s and we'd likely be in at 19-14.

We technically have no bad losses from an RPI stand point as Arkansas St is projected to have an RPI of 77. Already have a good RPI win over Oregon. We're not out of it yet, but it will take continued improvement.

I think your 18-13 scenario would be probably get them in..... But, that's going to be easier said than done getting splits with Xavier, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. Also, if those were all at home, I don't know if the RPI gets high enough there- but also maybe only 1 quality win away from home.

[hoyahooligan]

I think Georgetown still has an outside shot.

If we win out OOC we're at 9-4. Go 10-8 say by sweeping Depaul and St. John's getting swept by Nova and splitting with everyone else we'd end up with an RPI of 40. That's a tournament team.

Even if we lost @ cuse and did the rest the same we'd be 18-13 and have and RPI of 50. Go 1-1 in NYC our RPI would be in the 40s and we'd likely be in at 19-14.

We technically have no bad losses from an RPI stand point as Arkansas St is projected to have an RPI of 77. Already have a good RPI win over Oregon. We're not out of it yet, but it will take continued improvement.

I think your 18-13 scenario would be probably get them in..... But, that's going to be easier said than done getting splits with Xavier, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. Also, if those were all at home, I don't know if the RPI gets high enough there- but also maybe only 1 quality win away from home.

I did the splits of just winning the home games and the RPI came out to 50. If we switch them around and win all the road games and lose all the home games it actually comes out worse to 57. But I'm sure you can game it to just do a few key games here or there and get the RPI above 50 still at 18-13.

[stever20]

I think Georgetown still has an outside shot.

If we win out OOC we're at 9-4. Go 10-8 say by sweeping Depaul and St. John's getting swept by Nova and splitting with everyone else we'd end up with an RPI of 40. That's a tournament team.

Even if we lost @ cuse and did the rest the same we'd be 18-13 and have and RPI of 50. Go 1-1 in NYC our RPI would be in the 40s and we'd likely be in at 19-14.

We technically have no bad losses from an RPI stand point as Arkansas St is projected to have an RPI of 77. Already have a good RPI win over Oregon. We're not out of it yet, but it will take continued improvement.

I think your 18-13 scenario would be probably get them in..... But, that's going to be easier said than done getting splits with Xavier, Butler, Creighton, Seton Hall, Providence, and Marquette. Also, if those were all at home, I don't know if the RPI gets high enough there- but also maybe only 1 quality win away from home.

I did the splits of just winning the home games and the RPI came out to 50. If we switch them around and win all the road games and lose all the home games it actually comes out worse to 57. But I'm sure you can game it to just do a few key games here or there and get the RPI above 50 still at 18-13.

actually thinking conceptually it makes sense. Instead of having .6 added for each win and loss, you add 1.4 for each win and loss. So, assuming you are over .500, having the lower denominator would increase your percentage. Like in other sports when you see a team at 20-16, they're a higher winning percentage than someone at 21-17.

[stever20]

so looking at same metrics after last week's pretty great week....

Villanova proj now 13-0 OOC add 9-9 that would be 22-9 Proj RPI 19.1. Easy lock (+4.7 spots from last week)
Butler proj now 11-1 OOC add 9-9 that would be 20-10 Proj RPI 24.3. Easy lock (+5.8 spots from last week)
Xavier proj 10-3 OOC add 9-9 that would be 19-12 Proj RPI 28.7. Easy Lock (-0.9 spots from last week)
Creighton proj 12-0 OOC add 9-9 that would be 21-9 Proj RPI 33.0 Easy Lock(-0.1 spots from last week)
Providence proj 11-2 OOC add 9-9 that would be 20-11 Proj RPI 40.6. Easy Lock(+1.6 spots from last week)
Seton Hall proj now 10-2 OOC add 9-9 that would be 19-11 Proj RPI 42.8. Easy Lock(+6.8 spots from last week)
Marquette proj 9-3 OOC add 9-9 that would be 18-12 Proj RPI 64.7. Bubble but doubtful(+0.2 spots from last week)
Georgetown proj now 9-4 OOC add 9-9 that would be 18-13 Proj RPI 54.4. Bubble(+13.3 spots from last week)
St John's proj now 5-8 OOC add 9-9 that would be 14-17 Proj RPI 116. Out (-15.2 spots from last week)
DePaul proj now 7-5 OOC add 9-9 that would be 16-14 Proj RPI 108.4. Out (-15.8 spots from last week)

7 teams would look pretty safe at 9-9. Marquette pretty iffy. The key will be can we get 6 teams to 9 conference wins. Ken Pom today says yes. What's interesting is they also have Providence at 8-10. Providence at 19-12 has a proj RPI of 50.7. That would be very possible them getting in to get 7.

[stever20]

So with OOC almost totally over, lets look at this again....

Villanova proj OOC 13-0 add 9-9 that would be 22-9 proj RPI 19.0 Easy Lock (+.1 spot from last week)
Butler OOC 11-1 add 9-9 that would be 20-10 proj RPI 25.0 Easy Lock (-0.7 spots from last week)
Xavier proj OOC 10-3 add 9-9 that would be 19-12 proj RPI 30.1 Easy Lock(-1.4 spots from last week)
Creighton OOC 12-0 add 9-9 that would be 21-9 proj RPI 33.2 Easy Lock (-0.2 spots from last week)
Seton Hall OOC 10-2 add 9-9 that would be 19-11 proj RPI 47.5 Bubble (-4.7 spots from last week)
Providence OOC 10-3 add 9-9 that would be 19-12 proj RPI 51.8 Bubble (-11.2 spots from last week)
Georgetown proj OOC 9-4 add 9-9 that would be 18-13 proj RPI 55.2 Bubble (-0.8 spots from last week)
Marquette OOC 9-3 add 9-9 that would be 18-12 proj RPI 64.5 Bubble but doubtful (-0.2 spots from last week)
St John's OOC 6-7 add 9-9 that would be 15-16 proj RPI 108.4 Out (+7.6 spots from last week)
DePaul OOC 7-6 add 9-9 that would be 16-15 proj RPI 109.0 out (-0.6 spots from last week)

you'd have 4 that would easily be able to make it at the 9-9 mark. Seton Hall and Providence I think make it as well. Georgetown would really hinge on how well Oregon and Syracuse do in conference play, along with their conference wins. Marquette probably wouldn't get it.