Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[stever20]

I just feel like folks here think they are far worse than they really are. I mean, we've never seen a year yet where all their top teams are firing the same year. Year 1 UConn and Cincy were good, Memphis was ok. Temple was awful. Then next year Temple was better, but UConn wasn't good at all. Last year, Temple and UConn were both pretty good, along with Cincy- but Memphis fell off. Just realistically, they've been a fairly good conference, even with everyone not firing at the same time. Folks here want to talk about them like they're the MAAC or something like that. I just don't think that's realistic.

I like more competition for the P5. Always have.

Stever has certainly been much less of a troll this year than in the past (maybe because we know have sactowndog among us)....

But Stever ALWAYS gives the American the benefit of the doubt - and portrays that conference or the NCAA prospects in the rosiest of glasses, while taking the exact opposite approach for the Big East. It is peculiar for an alleged fan of a Big East school.

The fact is the American is closer to the Ivy League or Patriot than they are to the Big East, statistically speaking. The American is an OK basketball conference with a couple of very good teams each year but the Big East and AAC are just in totally different levels when it comes to leagues for basketball, and it isn't close. The AAC would rarely be discussed on here if it were not for Stever somehow managing to bring it up in every thread.

AAC is closer to the Ivy or Patriot?

Come on now. That's the absurd crap that I'm talking about. Just look at the final projected RPI's.....
Big East projected end of season RPI- .5718
AAC projected end of season RPI- .5286
Ivy projected end of season RPI- .4756
Patriot projected end of season RPI- .4751

gap between BE and AAC is .0432
gap between AAC and Ivy is .0530

to further illustrate...
Pac 12 projected end of season RPI .5500

gap between Big East and Pac 12 is .0218
gap between Pac 12 and AAC is .0214

[Savannah Jay]

well, they were able to get Marshall to leave Winthrop where he was a head coach at a team who had made the tourney 3 straight years back in 2007, so if they were able to get a hot young coach then, why would it be any different now, in a MUCH stronger league? Your statement that no coach is leaving a HC position at even a lower level to go to WSU is patently absurd.

Yes, and they hired Marshall before showing the world they are willing and able to pay their HC $3.3MM a year.

Of course, there's always the danger in luring someone with success one place and hoping it translates. For every Marshall, there's a Todd Lickliter, Billy Gillespie, Travis Ford, Matt Doherty, Brian Gregory, Cuonzo Martin...that do not work so well.

[Xavier4036]

Stever, I am talking about the reality/facts right now (1/3 of the way through the season) - not a "projection" about what is going to happen at end of season.

AAC is closer to Patriot and Ivy than Big East.

Even the numbers you show with projections at end of year, it isn't a ringing endorsement for the American. They are more or less half-way in between the Patriot/Ivy and Big East.

As I said, the American has a couple good teams every year but is a bad basketball conference outside of that.

Last year, the American was as close to the Big East, statistically speaking, as it was to the Missouri Valley and West Coast, and almost the Ivy League. Those are just facts.

[Westbrook#36]

Stever has certainly been much less of a troll this year than in the past (maybe because we know have sactowndog among us)....

But Stever ALWAYS gives the American the benefit of the doubt - and portrays that conference or the NCAA prospects in the rosiest of glasses, while taking the exact opposite approach for the Big East. It is peculiar for an alleged fan of a Big East school.

The fact is the American is closer to the Ivy League or Patriot than they are to the Big East, statistically speaking. The American is an OK basketball conference with a couple of very good teams each year but the Big East and AAC are just in totally different levels when it comes to leagues for basketball, and it isn't close. The AAC would rarely be discussed on here if it were not for Stever somehow managing to bring it up in every thread.

AAC is closer to the Ivy or Patriot?

Come on now. That's the absurd crap that I'm talking about. Just look at the final projected RPI's.....
Big East projected end of season RPI- .5718
AAC projected end of season RPI- .5286
Ivy projected end of season RPI- .4756
Patriot projected end of season RPI- .4751

gap between BE and AAC is .0432
gap between AAC and Ivy is .0530

to further illustrate...
Pac 12 projected end of season RPI .5500

gap between Big East and Pac 12 is .0218
gap between Pac 12 and AAC is .0214

stever you think that might have been just a little hyperbole? Yet you were compelled to scour the internet to defend to AAC, just like you scour the internet at every opportunity to throw shade on the BE. That's why people post some stuff like that to you, pretty simple to understand actually.

[Savannah Jay]

I am not going to get in the middle of a American vs. other conference fray, other than to say the American would be a step up for Wichita (unfortunately for the Valley). There is some basketball pedigree and history, as well as significant metro areas represented by the AAC.

My "complete pulling predictions out of my arse," if Wichita moves to the AAC I think there are only 6 jobs that could pull him way from Wichita...Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas, Indiana, and UCLA. Maybe throw Gtown, Nova, and Notre Dame. But my point is that it's a precious few if they get into a better competitive situation.

If they stay in the Valley, I think that list is substantially larger and includes the better basketball schools in the P5 and Big East.

[stever20]

Stever, I am talking about the reality/facts right now (1/3 of the way through the season) - not a "projection" about what is going to happen at end of season.

AAC is closer to Patriot and Ivy than Big East.

Even the numbers you show with projections at end of year, it isn't a ringing endorsement for the American. They are more or less half-way in between the Patriot/Ivy and Big East.

As I said, the American has a couple good teams every year but is a bad basketball conference outside of that.

Last year, the American was as close to the Big East, statistically speaking, as it was to the Missouri Valley and West Coast, and almost the Ivy League. Those are just facts.

The thing is, the projections are pretty realistic. I remember Gumby and I got into it last year, and the gap did close considerably.....

The AAC right now has 7 teams in the Ken Pom top 100. That's not a bad basketball conference. Consider below them- A10 has only 5, MVC 3(and 1 is Wichita), MWC 2, etc. No one below them has more than 5.

There's more to metrics than just the conference rating. Your number of top 50 and top 100 teams matters. Just like the Big East isn't measured by St John's or DePaul, the same goes with the AAC with USF or Tulane.

[stever20]

I am not going to get in the middle of a American vs. other conference fray, other than to say the American would be a step up for Wichita (unfortunately for the Valley). There is some basketball pedigree and history, as well as significant metro areas represented by the AAC.

My "complete pulling predictions out of my arse," if Wichita moves to the AAC I think there are only 6 jobs that could pull him way from Wichita...Kentucky, Duke, UNC, Kansas, Indiana, and UCLA. Maybe throw Gtown, Nova, and Notre Dame. But my point is that it's a precious few if they get into a better competitive situation.

If they stay in the Valley, I think that list is substantially larger and includes the better basketball schools in the P5 and Big East.

Yeah, we've talked about the AAC side of things, but this would be an absolute killer for the MVC. I mean, they would drop like a total rock.

And lets go further. MVC say picks up Valpo. Horizon impacted as well, and could even be 1 more level of moves done by that.

You would have the P6, then AAC as the clear #7. Then A10, MWC, WCC as the next group- and then it drops quickly after that. And you could argue that the MWC doesn't belong in that group of 3. So really 9-10 conferences only fighting for at large tourney bids.

[FenwayFriar]

For the last 10 years, Wichita State has been the strong and reliable program that you describe. But that has been totally the creation of Gregg Marshall. He's not going to be there forever. Mark Turgeon turned the program around before Marshall, but it wasn't a great program until Marshall got there. Before Turfeon it was a bad program - 127-192 record from 1989-2002. So what do they bring when they're going through an extended drought as they did then?

I mean, you could have said the same thing about Butler once Stevens left. Stevens put Butler on the map. The BE took a chance on Butler right when Stevens was leaving for the Celtics. And Holtmann wasn't even their first choice to succeed Stevens. So they've had two head coaches since Stevens left and have proven they are here to stay. Obviously no two situations are exactly the same, but I don't think you can not take a quality school just because one day they might not be what they are today because of a coaching change. I think it would be a great move for the AAC and would clearly be one to make UConn, Cincy, Temple, and Memphis happy. Now that UConn and Cincy are starting to realize that getting out of the conference for a F5 conference is going to be extremely difficult, I'm sure they had some demands to make the basketball conference stronger.

On an unrelated note, I have a question for Stever. I have an honest question that maybe other people have too? Being relatively new to the site (just about a year), I never got the background of your enthusiasm for the AAC. Being a Georgetown fan, how did you become a fan of the AAC? I'm genuinely curious, but if you don't feel the need to answer, that's fine as well. And this was not trying to be snarky at all; I've just been been wondering for a little while so figured I'd ask!

With all due respect Fenway - and I do respect another member of the Friar family - I don't see the Wichita and Butler situations as being even remotely comparable. In 26 years before Marshall got to Wichita, the Shockers had been to exactly 1 tournament - a Sweet 16 in 2006. So, they were a 1 year wonder who has missed the tournament for 24 consecutive seasons before that. Even under Marshall they have gone to the tournament only twice - their Final Four and an Elite 8. As of today they've won a total of 9 tournament games in the last 35 years. They didn't have a program before Marshall got there. He built the program.

Even before Stephens got to Butler, the Bulldogs had already built a program that was a consistent winner. Dating back to 1997, they had been to 6 tournaments under 3 different coaches before Stephens, including 2 Sweet 16's. Barry Collier, the coach who had built the program in the 1990's was the AD. Stephens was the 4th Butler coach to take them to the tournament. By the time that Butler was admitted to the Big East, they had been to 11 tournaments, 4 Sweet 16's, and 2 championship games, and had won a total of 16 tournament games. Stephens took Buter to the pinnacle of their success, but he built on what his predecessors had done. He didn't create the success at Butler, he extended it. They had a far more extensive resume than Wichita State has.

Beyond the coaches and the wins and losses, Butler is located in a big city, the capitol of a basketball mad state. Wichita is in the middle of corn country.

My point was that the Big East wouldn't have come calling for Butler without Stevens' success. Just like the AAC wouldn't have come calling for Wichita without Marshall's success. Prior to each head coach, Butler had made it into a total of 7 NCAA tournaments and Wichita had made it into a total of 8 NCAA tournaments. Obviously Butler had had much better recent success before Stevens became HC than Wichita before Marshall, no doubt. But it's also important to note Stevens was an assistant at Butler since 2001 during their S16 appearances in '03 and '07, so it's not like he didn't have any impact on their success in the early 2000's. Stevens turned a respectable program into a national brand. Marshall turned an average program into a national brand. C'mon, to say that each situation is not "even remotely comparable" is an absurd statement. So my main point, as I mentioned, wasn't that their histories were the same, but that it's very possible to continue sustained success after the most important coach in school history leaves. Your point made it seem that the AAC having any interest at all in Wichita was a bad idea just because Marshall might leave at some point. As people have pointed out, when school has a 3-4M budget for a head coach, they'll be just fine.

And your point about Butler being in a big city and Wichita being in the middle of nowhere is true, but this move clearly wouldn't have anything to do with media market or tv. It has everything to do with keeping UConn and Cincy (and Temple & Memphis to a lesser degree) happy.

[cujaysfan]

butler has shown it can repeatedly and successively hire head basketball coaches

i don't know that WSU has done the same

Butler:

Barry Collier
Thad Matta
Todd Lickliter
Brad Stevens
Brandon Miller
Chris Holtman

you can certainly argue post butler success for some of those guys - but not what they did at Hinkle

WSU from the same period

Mike Cohen
Scott Thompson
Randy Smithson
Mark Turgeon
Greggggggg Marshall

only the last two could be considered successful by any standard (and recognizing that Greggggg is as good as it gets with few exceptions across all of CBB).

[Bill Marsh]

well, they were able to get Marshall to leave Winthrop where he was a head coach at a team who had made the tourney 3 straight years back in 2007, so if they were able to get a hot young coach then, why would it be any different now, in a MUCH stronger league? Your statement that no coach is leaving a HC position at even a lower level to go to WSU is patently absurd.

Stever, reread my post. I was talking about someone leaving a HC position to come to WSU as an ASSISTANT as Chris Holtmann did when he left the HC job at Gardner-Webb to take a job as an ASSISTANT at Butler.

Look, as folks here know I've defended VCU quite a bit. But it does feel like their star has diminished some. I think UConn and Cincy may feel like they want the stronger program right now, and without a doubt that's Wichita.

Also, your statement that Wichita has been to 3 tournaments in the last 35 years- just is patently absurd. 2016-35=1981. Well from 1981-2016, Wichita has been to the tournament in 81,85,87,88,06,12,13,14,15,16. That would seem to me to be 10 tournaments. So I have no clue where you are getting your 3 tournaments from. Definitely not reality.

Good catch, Stever. Thank you for the correction. I hate to post incorrect information. I was multi-tasking when I made a note about WSU's 3 Sweet 16's in that period, but then mistakenly got it into my head that it was 3 tournament appearances. My bad.

Just for the record 35 years would be the 1981-82 season through the 2015-16 season, in which time WSU went to 9 tournaments, not 10.

There are numerous reasons why VCU would be the better choice for the eastern members of the AAC, which I detailed earlier. The fact that Wichita State has been hot lately is not a good basis for making that decision. Picking who's hot most recently leads to mistakes. VCU has established itself as at least as strong a program over time as WSU. All of the other factors make it a better fit.