Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[GumbyDamnit!]

BillM nails it yet again. If the argument for expansion is to allow for more middling teams to get wins vs more/new bottom dwellers, it is a loser mentality and proposition. The middle of the SEC doesn't have a better chance to make the tourney b/c of multiple wins vs Mizzou, and the increased size certainly doesn't contribute to a better conference or more bids.

I feel your pain JPS but I don't think St. Bonnie's provides much of anything to consider as a expansion candidate at this point.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Wichita State always made sense for the American for plenty of reasons. They are within their footprint, they would balance the football-only membership of Navy, they provide a strong and reliable basketball program, and they would help balance out the lesser (historically) of the AAC programs (Tulane, ECU, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU). UConn, Temple and Cincinnati may not like additional travel, but at least their basketball interests are being protected with such an addition. Frankly, I think they should nab Wichita State and VCU - although the latter may not get a substantial raise going from the A-10 to the AAC, which may prevent such a move - but those two schools definitely fit the conference's identity and geography.

This would absolutely not affect the Big East into making an expansion move. We have like-minded schools, which the American does not, with each school having a clear focus on men's basketball, which the American clearly does not. Wichita State helps buffer some of the weaker basketball programs - the same programs that the C7 wanted no part of when the Big East was undergoing a radical shift. My guess is that UConn, Cincinnati and Temple put their foot down on adding a strong non-football member in order to boost conference strength and RPI.

The American would expand only if ESPN said they would give them financial incentive to do so. If each AAC school was going to receive the same amount of money as this current contract, my guess is that they would stand pat. My guess is that their new deal will pay somewhere between $3-$5 million per football school, with probably a prorated portion for Wichita State (perhaps in the $1.5 range).

[Bill Marsh]

Wichita State always made sense for the American for plenty of reasons. They are within their footprint, they would balance the football-only membership of Navy, they provide a strong and reliable basketball program, and they would help balance out the lesser (historically) of the AAC programs (Tulane, ECU, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU). UConn, Temple and Cincinnati may not like additional travel, but at least their basketball interests are being protected with such an addition. Frankly, I think they should nab Wichita State and VCU - although the latter may not get a substantial raise going from the A-10 to the AAC, which may prevent such a move - but those two schools definitely fit the conference's identity and geography.

This would absolutely not affect the Big East into making an expansion move. We have like-minded schools, which the American does not, with each school having a clear focus on men's basketball, which the American clearly does not. Wichita State helps buffer some of the weaker basketball programs - the same programs that the C7 wanted no part of when the Big East was undergoing a radical shift. My guess is that UConn, Cincinnati and Temple put their foot down on adding a strong non-football member in order to boost conference strength and RPI.

The American would expand only if ESPN said they would give them financial incentive to do so. If each AAC school was going to receive the same amount of money as this current contract, my guess is that they would stand pat. My guess is that their new deal will pay somewhere between $3-$5 million per football school, with probably a prorated portion for Wichita State (perhaps in the $1.5 range).

For the last 10 years, Wichita State has been the strong and reliable program that you describe. But that has been totally the creation of Gregg Marshall. He's not going to be there forever. Mark Turgeon turned the program around before Marshall, but it wasn't a great program until Marshall got there. Before Turfeon it was a bad program - 127-192 record from 1989-2002. So what do they bring when they're going through an extended drought as they did then?

[stever20]

1 thing to remember with Wichita, the MVC tv contract is so really putrid in basketball that even if they made only 500k in the AAC, it would be a HUGE improvement. So the money bump might not have to be as large as you would think for them to do it.

Also looking if they leave in the 18-19 school year- they would be leaving behind only the last year of their final 4 benefits.

[FenwayFriar]

Wichita State always made sense for the American for plenty of reasons. They are within their footprint, they would balance the football-only membership of Navy, they provide a strong and reliable basketball program, and they would help balance out the lesser (historically) of the AAC programs (Tulane, ECU, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU). UConn, Temple and Cincinnati may not like additional travel, but at least their basketball interests are being protected with such an addition. Frankly, I think they should nab Wichita State and VCU - although the latter may not get a substantial raise going from the A-10 to the AAC, which may prevent such a move - but those two schools definitely fit the conference's identity and geography.

This would absolutely not affect the Big East into making an expansion move. We have like-minded schools, which the American does not, with each school having a clear focus on men's basketball, which the American clearly does not. Wichita State helps buffer some of the weaker basketball programs - the same programs that the C7 wanted no part of when the Big East was undergoing a radical shift. My guess is that UConn, Cincinnati and Temple put their foot down on adding a strong non-football member in order to boost conference strength and RPI.

The American would expand only if ESPN said they would give them financial incentive to do so. If each AAC school was going to receive the same amount of money as this current contract, my guess is that they would stand pat. My guess is that their new deal will pay somewhere between $3-$5 million per football school, with probably a prorated portion for Wichita State (perhaps in the $1.5 range).

For the last 10 years, Wichita State has been the strong and reliable program that you describe. But that has been totally the creation of Gregg Marshall. He's not going to be there forever. Mark Turgeon turned the program around before Marshall, but it wasn't a great program until Marshall got there. Before Turfeon it was a bad program - 127-192 record from 1989-2002. So what do they bring when they're going through an extended drought as they did then?

I mean, you could have said the same thing about Butler once Stevens left. Stevens put Butler on the map. The BE took a chance on Butler right when Stevens was leaving for the Celtics. And Holtmann wasn't even their first choice to succeed Stevens. So they've had two head coaches since Stevens left and have proven they are here to stay. Obviously no two situations are exactly the same, but I don't think you can not take a quality school just because one day they might not be what they are today because of a coaching change. I think it would be a great move for the AAC and would clearly be one to make UConn, Cincy, Temple, and Memphis happy. Now that UConn and Cincy are starting to realize that getting out of the conference for a F5 conference is going to be extremely difficult, I'm sure they had some demands to make the basketball conference stronger.

On an unrelated note, I have a question for Stever. I have an honest question that maybe other people have too? Being relatively new to the site (just about a year), I never got the background of your enthusiasm for the AAC. Being a Georgetown fan, how did you become a fan of the AAC? I'm genuinely curious, but if you don't feel the need to answer, that's fine as well. And this was not trying to be snarky at all; I've just been been wondering for a little while so figured I'd ask!

[stever20]

On an unrelated note, I have a question for Stever. I have an honest question that maybe other people have too? Being relatively new to the site (just about a year), I never got the background of your enthusiasm for the AAC. Being a Georgetown fan, how did you become a fan of the AAC? I'm genuinely curious, but if you don't feel the need to answer, that's fine as well. And this was not trying to be snarky at all; I've just been been wondering for a little while so figured I'd ask!

I just feel like folks here think they are far worse than they really are. I mean, we've never seen a year yet where all their top teams are firing the same year. Year 1 UConn and Cincy were good, Memphis was ok. Temple was awful. Then next year Temple was better, but UConn wasn't good at all. Last year, Temple and UConn were both pretty good, along with Cincy- but Memphis fell off. Just realistically, they've been a fairly good conference, even with everyone not firing at the same time. Folks here want to talk about them like they're the MAAC or something like that. I just don't think that's realistic.

I like more competition for the P5. Always have.

Also, while I do like Georgetown a lot(even thru these trying times)- I am just about as much a college basketball fan. I love watching good games, no matter the conference.

I do agree with you 100% btw about now that UConn and Cincy are locked in to the AAC for the near future, they probably made some demands on the conference. I do think them getting Wichita would be close to a home run. To have a conference with UConn, Cincy, Temple, Memphis, Wichita, PLUS then SMU isn't going away anytime soon(they have a top 40 recruiting class right now), PLUS Houston and UCF are up and coming. Tulsa made the tourney last year. Really only USF, Tulane, and ECU right now are dregs. And top teams would get to avoid playing those teams 2x a year. Think about it- with Wichita, a team like a UConn could have a conference schedule with playing bottom tier teams only 3 times. Compare to the Big East, where this year teams will be having 4 dreg games. Fewer chances for catastrophic loss.

[Bill Marsh]

Wichita State always made sense for the American for plenty of reasons. They are within their footprint, they would balance the football-only membership of Navy, they provide a strong and reliable basketball program, and they would help balance out the lesser (historically) of the AAC programs (Tulane, ECU, USF, UCF, Houston, SMU). UConn, Temple and Cincinnati may not like additional travel, but at least their basketball interests are being protected with such an addition. Frankly, I think they should nab Wichita State and VCU - although the latter may not get a substantial raise going from the A-10 to the AAC, which may prevent such a move - but those two schools definitely fit the conference's identity and geography.

This would absolutely not affect the Big East into making an expansion move. We have like-minded schools, which the American does not, with each school having a clear focus on men's basketball, which the American clearly does not. Wichita State helps buffer some of the weaker basketball programs - the same programs that the C7 wanted no part of when the Big East was undergoing a radical shift. My guess is that UConn, Cincinnati and Temple put their foot down on adding a strong non-football member in order to boost conference strength and RPI.

The American would expand only if ESPN said they would give them financial incentive to do so. If each AAC school was going to receive the same amount of money as this current contract, my guess is that they would stand pat. My guess is that their new deal will pay somewhere between $3-$5 million per football school, with probably a prorated portion for Wichita State (perhaps in the $1.5 range).

For the last 10 years, Wichita State has been the strong and reliable program that you describe. But that has been totally the creation of Gregg Marshall. He's not going to be there forever. Mark Turgeon turned the program around before Marshall, but it wasn't a great program until Marshall got there. Before Turfeon it was a bad program - 127-192 record from 1989-2002. So what do they bring when they're going through an extended drought as they did then?

I mean, you could have said the same thing about Butler once Stevens left. Stevens put Butler on the map. The BE took a chance on Butler right when Stevens was leaving for the Celtics. And Holtmann wasn't even their first choice to succeed Stevens. So they've had two head coaches since Stevens left and have proven they are here to stay. Obviously no two situations are exactly the same, but I don't think you can not take a quality school just because one day they might not be what they are today because of a coaching change. I think it would be a great move for the AAC and would clearly be one to make UConn, Cincy, Temple, and Memphis happy. Now that UConn and Cincy are starting to realize that getting out of the conference for a F5 conference is going to be extremely difficult, I'm sure they had some demands to make the basketball conference stronger.

On an unrelated note, I have a question for Stever. I have an honest question that maybe other people have too? Being relatively new to the site (just about a year), I never got the background of your enthusiasm for the AAC. Being a Georgetown fan, how did you become a fan of the AAC? I'm genuinely curious, but if you don't feel the need to answer, that's fine as well. And this was not trying to be snarky at all; I've just been been wondering for a little while so figured I'd ask!

With all due respect Fenway - and I do respect another member of the Friar family - I don't see the Wichita and Butler situations as being even remotely comparable. In 26 years before Marshall got to Wichita, the Shockers had been to exactly 1 tournament - a Sweet 16 in 2006. So, they were a 1 year wonder who has missed the tournament for 24 consecutive seasons before that. Even under Marshall they have gone to the tournament only twice - their Final Four and an Elite 8. As of today they've won a total of 9 tournament games in the last 35 years. They didn't have a program before Marshall got there. He built the program.

Even before Stephens got to Butler, the Bulldogs had already built a program that was a consistent winner. Dating back to 1997, they had been to 6 tournaments under 3 different coaches before Stephens, including 2 Sweet 16's. Barry Collier, the coach who had built the program in the 1990's was the AD. Stephens was the 4th Butler coach to take them to the tournament. By the time that Butler was admitted to the Big East, they had been to 11 tournaments, 4 Sweet 16's, and 2 championship games, and had won a total of 16 tournament games. Stephens took Buter to the pinnacle of their success, but he built on what his predecessors had done. He didn't create the success at Butler, he extended it. They had a far more extensive resume than Wichita State has.

Beyond the coaches and the wins and losses, Butler is located in a big city, the capitol of a basketball mad state. Wichita is in the middle of corn country.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Butler is a great fit for the Big East. Wichita State will never be.

College Basketball’s Biggest Disappointments – NBC Sports – December 15, 2016

UConn

UConn has been an absolute mess this season. They lost to Wagner and Northeastern at home in their first two games. They barely escaped Loyola Marymount with a win. They went 1-2 in the Maui Invitational, with the one win coming in a closer-than-it-should’ve-been win over Chaminade. If that wasn’t enough, UConn has also been devastated by injury, with two starters – McDonald’s all-american point guard Alterique Gilbert and Terry Larrier, who was their best player at the start of the year – going down with season-ending injuries. This was a team that entered the season with a legitimate case to be considered a top 25 team and is, in all likelihood, going to end the year with a win over a potentially NIT-bound Syracuse team in Madison Square Garden being the highlight of their year.

This is how bad things have gotten for UConn: When I was at the game at MSG, a UConn fan told me that he would consider this season a success “if UConn shows up as a bad loss when they show Syracuse’s NCAA tournament résumé.” For a team that has won two of the last six national titles, that’s quite a fall from grace.

The Atlantic 10

Outside of the major six conferences, the Atlantic 10 is up there as one of the best. The A10 looked like it was on its way to another banner year when the preseason poll included both Rhode Island and Dayton. Currently, both teams find themselves outside the top-25, but more importantly, the conference as a whole finds itself with an underwhelming non-conference résumé. The A-10 is slightly above the American Athletic Conference for seventh place in the Conference RPI rankings, while KenPom rates the A10 as the eighth toughest league.

Rhode Island landed an early-season victory over No. 24 Cincinnati on a neutral floor, but the Rams have lost three out of four, all on the road, to Valparaiso, Providence and Houston. Dayton has been plagued by injuries to forwards Kendall Pollard and transfer Josh Cunningham, which contributed to a 2-2 start. The Flyers have won five straight since, but Dayton could enter conference player with its best out of league win being against Northwestern or New Mexico, neither team pegged to land an at-large bid at this point. And it’s not just the team’s that began the season ranked. VCU, another A-10 power, hasn’t looked up to par, dropping back-to-back games against Illinois and Georgia Tech.

With a few weeks before conference play begins, the A-10 is lacking signature wins. Three years after receiving six bids, an all-time high for the conference, the A-10 is on pace to have, at best, half that amount this upcoming March.

RPI Forecast (games through December 14th) projects UConn to finish 13-16 with a # 119 RPI ranking. Rhode Island (# 31) Dayton (# 32) and VCU (#44) are the only A10 teams projected to finish in the RPI Top 50.

Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology (dated December 15, 2016) projects Dayton (#8 seed), Rhode Island (#10 seed) and VCU (#12 seed / play-in game) to make the tournament field. UConn isn’t on Lunardi’s radar any more.

[SJHooper]

Interesting, because if you read between the lines, this implies that UConn knows it will be in the AAC for a while and they likely pushed for stronger hoops as a result. They wouldn't have to push so hard to get better hoops if they were on their way out anytime soon. I still think Marshall gets knocked off his feet with an offer from a major conference school and leaves at some point soon. I respect loyalty, but money talks when it's big enough.

It really is one of the most shocking stories in college hoops how quickly UConn faded into irrelevance just a few years after winning a championship. Even if they add Wichita State, the Big East will still be better. We have the established programs who have been well known for much longer than Wichita. We have a solid foundation and our conference is done. They are still under construction with a weak foundation. Pretty amazing how quickly things changed for the Big East too but in the other direction. Cuse and Pitt leave in the middle of the night, many programs jump ship to the ACC, the small C-7 schools band together, everyone laughs saying we can't be relevant again, then we add Xavier, Butler, Creighton who turn into monsters and Nova wins a championship. PC and SHU rise up. It really is worthy of a 30 for 30 documentary.

[whiteandblue77]

WSU to AAC makes perfect sense, and would be good for Tulsa basketball, they're old rivals from the MVC. I could definitely see this happening.