Early look at BE tourney bids

[stever20]

So I always look at a central question when I ask how many tourney bids a conference can get....

Would said team get in the tourney if they go 9-9 in conference play.

Why is this? Looking just at the Big East, Big 12, and AAC the 1 year they had 10- so 7 seasons....

6th place team has finished with more than 9 wins only once. Baylor last year. 2x that team finished with 8 wins.

Villanova proj OOC 12-1, add 9-9 that would be 21-10 Proj RPI 23.8. Easy lock
Creighton proj OOC 12-0, add 9-0 that would be 21-9 Proj RPI 32.9. Easy lock
Butler proj OOC 10-2, add 9-9 that would be 19-11 Proj RPI 30.1. Easy lock
Xavier proj OOC 10-3, add 9-9 that would be 19-12. Proj RPI 27.8. Easy lock
Providence proj OOC 11-2, add 9-9 that would be 20-11. Proj RPI 42.2. Easy lock
Seton Hall proj OOC 9-3, add 9-9 that would be 18-12. Proj RPI 49.6. Bubble but probable
Marquette proj OOC 9-3, add 9-9 that would be 18-12. Proj RPI 64.9. Bubble but doubtful
Georgetown proj OOC 8-5, add 9-9 that would be 17-14. Proj RPI 67.5. out
St John's Proj OOC 6-7, add 9-9 that would be 15-16. Proj RPI 102.8. out
DePaul proj OOC 8-4, add 9-9 that would be 17-13. Proj RPI 92.6. out

To me, 5 looks pretty likely as I think it's safe to say if any of the top 8 finish at 10-8(which every team who finished 5th got 10 wins)- they would make the tourney. To get a 6th looks pretty doubtful, unless Providence is the 6th place team. Maybe a Seton Hall can sneak in.

For those wondering about 7. 7th place teams in the 7 seasons have finished with 9 wins twice. So about 30% of the time.

[Jet915]

If Seton Hall can win today, I say 6, otherwise, probably 5.

[stever20]

If Seton Hall can win today, I say 6, otherwise, probably 5.

Thing is, you can't blindly say that. Lets say Seton Hall wins today, and finishes 5th. They're in. But the 6th place team at 9-9 is Marquette. Marquette's resume as a team doesn't get them in. Teams get in the tourney, conferences don't.

Like lets take the KP projected standings
Nova 15-3 in
Creighton 12-6 in
Butler 11-7 in
Xavier 11-7 in
Marquette 9-9 doubtful
Seton Hall 9-9 in
Providence 8-10 doubtful
Georgetown 8-10 out
St John's 5-13 out
DePaul 3-15 out

maybe 1 of Marquette or Providence gets in but probably not. Odds would be really good that Marquette and PC would need 1 for Marquette, and 2 for PC(since 1 is 1st rd) wins in the BET to get into the tourney.

[BigmanU]

So I always look at a central question when I ask how many tourney bids a conference can get....

Would said team get in the tourney if they go 9-9 in conference play.

Why is this? Looking just at the Big East, Big 12, and AAC the 1 year they had 10- so 7 seasons....

6th place team has finished with more than 9 wins only once. Baylor last year. 2x that team finished with 8 wins.

Villanova proj OOC 12-1, add 9-9 that would be 21-10 Proj RPI 23.8. Easy lock
Creighton proj OOC 12-0, add 9-0 that would be 21-9 Proj RPI 32.9. Easy lock
Butler proj OOC 10-2, add 9-9 that would be 19-11 Proj RPI 30.1. Easy lock
Xavier proj OOC 10-3, add 9-9 that would be 19-12. Proj RPI 27.8. Easy lock
Providence proj OOC 11-2, add 9-9 that would be 20-11. Proj RPI 42.2. Easy lock
Seton Hall proj OOC 9-3, add 9-9 that would be 18-12. Proj RPI 49.6. Bubble but probable
Marquette proj OOC 9-3, add 9-9 that would be 18-12. Proj RPI 64.9. Bubble but doubtful
Georgetown proj OOC 8-5, add 9-9 that would be 17-14. Proj RPI 67.5. out
St John's Proj OOC 6-7, add 9-9 that would be 15-16. Proj RPI 102.8. out
DePaul proj OOC 8-4, add 9-9 that would be 17-13. Proj RPI 92.6. out

To me, 5 looks pretty likely as I think it's safe to say if any of the top 8 finish at 10-8(which every team who finished 5th got 10 wins)- they would make the tourney. To get a 6th looks pretty doubtful, unless Providence is the 6th place team. Maybe a Seton Hall can sneak in.

For those wondering about 7. 7th place teams in the 7 seasons have finished with 9 wins twice. So about 30% of the time.

So your saying as long as Providence & Seton Hall don't shit the bed we could get 7 teams in, if one of Georgetown or Marquette step up?

[GoldenWarrior11]

In order for us to get 6 or 7 teams in, we really need the bottom of the league to struggle in conference play. DePaul and St. Johns appear likely to do just that, but I don't think Georgetown or Marquette are going to be easy outs at all.

I'd rather have us consistently get 5 teams in with high seeds, rather than 6 with middle seeds. We want deep runs for the teams that do make it.

[BigmanU]

In order for us to get 6 or 7 teams in, we really need the bottom of the league to struggle in conference play. DePaul and St. Johns appear likely to do just that, but I don't think Georgetown or Marquette are going to be easy outs at all.

I'd rather have us consistently get 5 teams in with high seeds, rather than 6 with middle seeds. We want deep runs for the teams that do make it.

Normally I would agree if I were on a comfy perch like Nova, Creighton, Xavier & Butler. As a Georgetown fan, I want in and don't care how the conference standings shake out. I understand what's best for the conference, but the Hoyas aren't in a position to care right now.

As mentioned earlier, a lot of strong teams. Conference schedule is going to be a dog fight.

[ecasadoSBU]

Today is a huge day for Seton Hall. These are the games that make or break bids (unless Seton Hall has a spectacular conference season)
Marquette f'cked up by losing to Wiscy at home

[JPSchmack]

In order for us to get 6 or 7 teams in, we really need the bottom of the league to struggle in conference play. DePaul and St. Johns appear likely to do just that, but I don't think Georgetown or Marquette are going to be easy outs at all.

I'd rather have us consistently get 5 teams in with high seeds, rather than 6 with middle seeds. We want deep runs for the teams that do make it.

I'm curious... why would the be an either or situation (5 with high seeds, 6 with middle seeds)? You're saying you want title contending programs at the top of the league more than a strong middle. And I don't think either is a problem for the Big East. You're always going to have a strong middle, and there hasn't been a problem with title contending programs at the top, either.

[stever20]

In order for us to get 6 or 7 teams in, we really need the bottom of the league to struggle in conference play. DePaul and St. Johns appear likely to do just that, but I don't think Georgetown or Marquette are going to be easy outs at all.

I'd rather have us consistently get 5 teams in with high seeds, rather than 6 with middle seeds. We want deep runs for the teams that do make it.

I'm curious... why would the be an either or situation (5 with high seeds, 6 with middle seeds)? You're saying you want title contending programs at the top of the league more than a strong middle. And I don't think either is a problem for the Big East. You're always going to have a strong middle, and there hasn't been a problem with title contending programs at the top, either.

because to get 6 in, that 6th team is going to need to steal some wins from the top 5. And where that would most likely come is from teams 4 and 5- that are going to have like 6-7 losses from the top 5 already. You start pushing those teams into the 6-8 range where you have in a lot of cases road 2nd round games, and top 2-3 seed opponents.

[hoyahooligan]

I think Georgetown still has an outside shot.

If we win out OOC we're at 9-4. Go 10-8 say by sweeping Depaul and St. John's getting swept by Nova and splitting with everyone else we'd end up with an RPI of 40. That's a tournament team.

Even if we lost @ cuse and did the rest the same we'd be 18-13 and have and RPI of 50. Go 1-1 in NYC our RPI would be in the 40s and we'd likely be in at 19-14.

We technically have no bad losses from an RPI stand point as Arkansas St is projected to have an RPI of 77. Already have a good RPI win over Oregon. We're not out of it yet, but it will take continued improvement.