Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[hortle]

imo the shortlist for expansion candidates will always include SLU (and Dayton) toward the top of the list. For awhile it looked like the league was going to twelve, with the current additions plus those two. They make the most sense geographically and likeminded-ness. Dayton probably would have leapfrogged Creighton in the last wave if not for Xavier pretty much accounting for all of Dayton's tv market.

[Bill Marsh]

imo the shortlist for expansion candidates will always include SLU (and Dayton) toward the top of the list. For awhile it looked like the league was going to twelve, with the current additions plus those two. They make the most sense geographically and likeminded-ness. Dayton probably would have leapfrogged Creighton in the last wave if not for Xavier pretty much accounting for all of Dayton's tv market.

Are Xavier's and Dayton's market reach really limited to just SW Ohio? Neither of these are commuter schools. They are private schools who draw their students regionally and whose alums are scattered around Ohio and elsewhere in the MW.
Ohio is a large state of almost 12 million people with only one P5 school in the state. It seems to me that there's a Lot of market share to grab there, not only in Cincinnati and elsewhere around the state.

The other issue is market penetration. Currently X is battling UC for prominence in the Cincy market. UC starts out with a big advantage just on the numbers. However, if Dayton were in the BE with all of their crazy fans, the debates between the 2 teams would dominate the regional conversation.

Strong rivalries are important. Some of the biggest programs in college basketball history have thrived with a tough competitor right in their own back yard, e.g. UNC-Duke, UK-Louisville, UM-Michigan State.

I wouldn't be so quick to write off Dayton as a potential BE asset.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Dayton probably would have leapfrogged Creighton in the last wave if not for Xavier pretty much accounting for all of Dayton's tv market.

Xavier has absolutely nothing to do with Dayton’s college basketball TV market.

STL 25th in NCAA tourney ratings, which isn't as bad as it looks - St. Louis Post-Dispatch - March 26, 2015

St. Louis isn’t much of a college basketball market to begin with. While St. Louis University has had some nice seasons recently, that follows a drought in which the Billikens didn’t make the NCAA event for 11 consecutive seasons. Nielsen says 7 percent of area homes with a TV tuned in, on average, to the first four days of coverage that was spread across CBS, TNT, TBS and truTV.

Louisville is only about 75 miles to the west of UK’s Lexington campus, plus it has its own team still in the tourney — the Louisville Cardinals. That adds up to it being the nation’s top-rated market for the tourney. Nielsen said 22.8 percent of TV households there were tuning in through last weekend.

Dayton, about 135 miles to the north of Lexington, is second (17.3). Like Louisville, it also helps that the University of Dayton was in the tourney.

Cincinnati, only about 80 miles north of Lexington, was third (15.4) and it also benefited by having two schools (Xavier and Cincinnati) in the field.

Louisville Again No. 1 College Hoops TV Market - Louisville Courier-Journal - March 9, 2016

Now 14 years running, count the Louisville TV market No. 1 for college basketball ratings. Again, it wasn't close for the top spot.

ESPN on Tuesday announced games airing in Louisville averaged a 4.9, listing ground zero for the Cardinals and Cats ahead of Raleigh-Durham (2.7), Kansas City (2.5), Greensboro-High Point (2.5), and Cincinnati (1.8). Other markets in the top 10 include Dayton (1.7), Greenville (1.7), Indianapolis (1.6), Nashville (1.6) and Memphis (1.5).

Nine Great College Basketball Towns - NCAA.com - February 17, 2016

Bloomington, Indiana

Chapel Hill, North Carolina

Durham, North Carolina

Dayton, Ohio
Each year the NCAA tournament begins in the University of Dayton Arena, site of the First Four games that trim the field to a 64-team bracket. It’s an appropriate home, considering the pride and passion shown each year by fans of the University of Dayton Flyers, which is one of the premier programs in the Atlantic 10 and has won five NCAA tourney games the last two years. Since the arena opened in 1969, the Flyers have ranked top 35 in the nation in attendance every year, drawing sold-out crowds of 13,455 to the building on a regular basis.

Indianapolis, Indiana
The largest city in the Hoosier state has become a regular host of the Final Four (six times since 1991, and most recently in Lucas Oil Stadium). There’s also historic Hinkle Fieldhouse, home to Butler University men’s basketball. It opened in 1928 and underwent a $36 million renovation in 2014, seats 9,100 fans today and is frequently filled to capacity when the Bulldogs are competing in the Big East. IUPUI is another Division I member that competes here, as does the University of Indianapolis, one of the stronger programs in Division II.

Lawrence, Kansas

Lexington, Kentucky

Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
The City of Brotherly Love is the home to six Division I basketball programs -- the Big Five of La Salle, Penn, St. Joe’s, Temple and Villanova -- as well as Drexel. It’s also home of The Palestra, known as the Cathedral of College Basketball. Every major college team has played there and the 8,722-seat arena has been the site of more college basketball regular season and NCAA tournament games than any other venue. Need more examples of the game’s deep roots here? These college stars are Philly natives: Gene Banks (Duke), Wilt Chamberlain (Kansas), Len Chappell (Wake Forest), Wayne Ellington (UNC), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Kentucky), Rasheed Wallace (North Carolina).

Richmond, Virginia

Each year, the University of Dayton generates more alumni than most Big East schools, and they remain rabid college basketball fans for life.

Enrolment

23,799 - DePaul University
20,448 - St. John's University
17,858 - Georgetown University
11,745 - Marquette University
10,920 - University of Dayton
10,735 - Villanova University

9,627 - Seton Hall University
8,236 - Creighton University
6,538 - Xavier University
4,848 - Butler University
4,687 - Providence College

. . . but most of UD’s alumni do not remain in Dayton after graduation.

University of Dayton Alumni Chapters

Atlanta • Austin • Boston • Charlotte • Chicago • Cincinnati • Cleveland • Columbus • Dallas / Ft. Worth • Dayton • Denver • Detroit • Houston • Indianapolis • Los Angeles • Louisville • Miami • Milwaukee • Nashville • New York / New Jersey • Northwest Ohio • Orange County, CA • Philadelphia • Phoenix • Pittsburgh • Puerto Rico • Raleigh / Durham • Rochester • San Diego • San Francisco • Seattle • St. Louis • Tampa Bay • Washington DC / Baltimore • Western Michigan

Many of you may not be aware of the information posted above (or its significance), but Fox Sports and ESPN certainly are.

In any event, Xavier, Butler, and Creighton were all very deserving candidates at the time that the presidents of the Catholic 7 schools chose them for expansion, and all three schools remain a big part of the Big East's very considerable success. This morning's RPI Rankings show:

2 - Creighton
4 - Villanova
9 - Xavier
11 - Butler
27 - Dayton
304 - Saint Louis

[BillikenFriar]

I understand making this sort of statement draws more ridicule than believers but......

I have it on excellent (very) authority that the conversations were SLU or Creighton for 10. It largely came down to the unbelievable fan following Creighton has and the willingness of their fan base to travel to see them. I have to think (just speculation) Fr. Biondi's well known difficult personality didnt help either. Remember, Jesuits know each other AND the Dominican center is on SLU's campus (oddly) so that means a majority of the presidents probably knew what a pain Larry was.

If expansion happens, will SLU still be in a favored position? Hard to say with the post Majerus crash. Still, big city team, private, great facilities and a natural Midwest rival for BU and CU. they may still look pretty attractive, especially if T Ford's spectacular recruiting continues.

[SJHooper]

As a SJ fan, I always knew the names Xavier, Creighton, and Butler. They just always seemed like major teams playing in mid major conferences. They were easy picks to expand. They were all routinely in the top 25 and even when they weren't they were respectable programs. St. Louis just doesn't have the brand that those schools do. They don't have that prestige. What did St. Louis have 1 or 2 good years recently? Where are they in the national picture right now? Haven't even heard a peep. I just don't see STL becoming a Big East brand. If we are going to expand the only candidates should be UConn if they drop or demote football and Gonzaga. We are in a position of strength, we don't need to dilute the league. I have a feeling that teams like Wake Forest, BC, etc. will be left out of the major football landscape and these are the teams we will have to scoop up. They literally provide nothing to their conferences and they are getting tons and tons of money with FCS level football programs. There have already been articles about how they may get pushed out of the ACC some way or another. It can happen...maybe not soon but eventually. I also don't want Dayton (not a big brand) or VCU (after Shaka they won't do nearly as much).

I was watching the Cuse v. UConn game last night on ESPN2 and the announcers talked about the glory days of the Big East and one of them jumped in and said "the Big East is still very, very good".

[TAMU Eagle]

Actually, the Big East does care about those things. They've made clear that they are interested in a conference of "like minded institutions." And if you would bother to read, you would see the discussion was about long term potential, not present viability. Also, if you look at my statements you cut off when you quoted me, you'd see that I said they'd need to bring their basketball program to a competitive level. It's an obvious qualification, but one they're in control of, and if they do that, the fan base will follow. The financial situation is also something that they can get under control.

The points you mention obviously make adding SLU today a poor choice. My point, however, is that the school is basically the only one that had all of the uncontrollable aspects that the Big East is interested in. So I maintain, if SLU can bring it's basketball program to a competitive level, it has the long term potential to force the Big East to consider it should the league choose to expand.

They really really don't. It just happened that that the best available candidates at the time were all urban private universities. If UConn or Kansas had dropped football the Big East would have taken them in a heartbeat and we would have been at 12 or Butler and Creighton would have been out in the cold. When the Big East refers to "like-minded" they are really referring to "willing to make an investment in basketball." That is what matters.

I am aware that you were talking about future viability. I was too. Saint Louis is near bankruptcy. That is very unlikely to change. As long as they are in that state, they will be unable to invest significant money into basketball, meaning their basketball will continue to struggle. SLU is never coming to the Big East unless they have some sort of financial miracle. I would count Boston University and Denver as more likely to join the Big East than Saint Louis. But really, none of them will join. The Big East will wait for the B12 to implode and we will see where we go from there. UConn is the only school that would get added before that.

[TAMU Eagle]

I understand making this sort of statement draws more ridicule than believers but......

I have it on excellent (very) authority that the conversations were SLU or Creighton for 10. It largely came down to the unbelievable fan following Creighton has and the willingness of their fan base to travel to see them. I have to think (just speculation) Fr. Biondi's well known difficult personality didnt help either. Remember, Jesuits know each other AND the Dominican center is on SLU's campus (oddly) so that means a majority of the presidents probably knew what a pain Larry was.

If expansion happens, will SLU still be in a favored position? Hard to say with the post Majerus crash. Still, big city team, private, great facilities and a natural Midwest rival for BU and CU. they may still look pretty attractive, especially if T Ford's spectacular recruiting continues.

It came down to VCU or Creighton. Georgetown put up enough of a stink to make sure it was Creighton. Even without that, Creighton was the right pick. SLU was in the conversation but they were after VCU and Dayton (and the three who got in obviously).

[Bill Marsh]

I have a feeling that teams like Wake Forest, BC, etc. will be left out of the major football landscape and these are the teams we will have to scoop up. They literally provide nothing to their conferences and they are getting tons and tons of money with FCS level football programs. There have already been articles about how they may get pushed out of the ACC some way or another. It can happen...maybe not soon but eventually.

How can a team get "pushed out" of a conference? Serious question. The only way that I know is if they violate the by-laws or other condition of their contract.

If a conference disbands, that's a whole other matter. Right now no one seems to be anticipating that the ACC will disband.

[TAMU Eagle]

I have a feeling that teams like Wake Forest, BC, etc. will be left out of the major football landscape and these are the teams we will have to scoop up. They literally provide nothing to their conferences and they are getting tons and tons of money with FCS level football programs. There have already been articles about how they may get pushed out of the ACC some way or another. It can happen...maybe not soon but eventually.

How can a team get "pushed out" of a conference? Serious question. The only way that I know is if they violate the by-laws or other condition of their contract.

If a conference disbands, that's a whole other matter. Right now no one seems to be anticipating that the ACC will disband.

I'm pretty sure most conferences can vote members out

[NJRedman]

I have a feeling that teams like Wake Forest, BC, etc. will be left out of the major football landscape and these are the teams we will have to scoop up. They literally provide nothing to their conferences and they are getting tons and tons of money with FCS level football programs. There have already been articles about how they may get pushed out of the ACC some way or another. It can happen...maybe not soon but eventually.

How can a team get "pushed out" of a conference? Serious question. The only way that I know is if they violate the by-laws or other condition of their contract.

If a conference disbands, that's a whole other matter. Right now no one seems to be anticipating that the ACC will disband.

I'm pretty sure most conferences can vote members out

But they don't. Temple is the only example of one and that had it's reasons. No team in the P5 is where Temple was 16 years ago. The ACC isn't booting Wake Forest nor BC.