Conference Realignment Thread v. 2016

[Hall2012]

It's true that conferences matter less in basketball and in football - but that doesn't mean they don't matter at all. Far from it. The reason is the national championship formula. The NCAA Basketball tournament his huge and all inclusive while the CFP is designed to keep group of 5 teams out.

But even in the basketball format, there's a huge advantage to being in a power conference, which comes in the form of room for error. True, schools from non-power conferences aren't shut out of the tournament like in football, but they need everything to break right to get in with any sort of a decent seed. They need to load up the non-conference portion of their schedule with tough games and they need to win those games because the entire second half of the season comes with no opportunity to improve their resume - only repeated opportunities to destroy it. Slip up in just a couple of those games, and all your OOC-work means nothing as you now need to win your conference tournament to be comfortable on selections Sunday. And forget about getting a favorable draw or playing anywhere close to home.

Now let's look at a P6 team. The recipe is to pretty much finish above .500 in conference play and get to 20 wins. No need to kill yourself in non-conference play. Schedule a good mix of easy wins and RPI-boosting losses that gets you into conference play with that 20 win mark within reach. Even if you're stuck on 18 or 19, lucky you, you get more chances in the conference tournament - where wins can help a lot but losses won't hurt much. Same thing with teams comfortably in but playing for seeding.

Again, that doesn't mean it's impossible to be successful from a mid-major conference. Xavier did it successfully for years until getting promoted and Gonzaga still does it successfully. UConn has a national championship as an A10 member. But the odds are a heck of lot worse from outside the P6.

The AAC is really a tweener conference if we've ever seen one. Yeah they've got 3-4 pretty weak teams(think 4-5 maybe this year depending on Temple). But they also do have Cincy, SMU, UConn(eventually) who if you beat them that resonates with the committee. I mean last year you can't tell me that Temple and Tulsa didn't make the tourney because of SMU. Temple had 6 OOC losses and made the tourney as a 10 seed-2nd highest 10 seed actually. 6 teams after them got in the tourney.

Also, I would say that the committee has placed a lot of emphasis in the P6 on OOC SOS. SOS matters a lot. Marquette was 20-13, with #108 SOS. Tulsa was 20-11 with #68 SOS. Tulsa got in the tourney. Marquette didn't even make NIT. So I would say that you absolutely even in the P6 have to challenge yourself OOC. Gone are the days where you can have 13 cupcakes.

Yeah I don't disagree with anything you said. You certainly can't get away with scheduling 13 cupcakes, but you don't need to load up on top 50s either like schools in smaller conferences do. Schedule 2 top 50s and keep the majority of the rest in the top 200 and you're set as a p6 school.

I agree the AAC and the A10 are kind of in the the middle. Their conference schedule isn't the minefield of the Valley or the WCC where nearly every loss is a bad loss, but there are plenty of bad losses to be had. At the same time, it's also not like the Big East where potentially 2/3 of your games are opportunities for top 50 wins but it's not completely devoid of those opportunities either.

[stever20]

I don't think P6 schools can schedule even though like you said. Used to be a schedule like last year with Marquette was very normal. That's just not the case any longer. A schedule like last years Butler was very good in old days. Not any longer.

[SJHooper]

Ding dong, UConn's dead! Been saying since the conference broke up and UConn went for football glory that they made a huge mistake. 1-3 and one of their best players is out now. The UConn women suddenly look more beatable, the UConn men are a totally different program post-realignment, and their football continues to be a disgrace. Now they have to soak in the AAC at least the next 8 years and they risk falling off the national map completely by that time if this trend continues.

[Xavier4036]

But recruiting hasn't dropped off for UConn. If anything, it's picked up in the AAC(part of that is the exposure that was in the old Big East was really not that good at all compared to what both the New Big East and the AAC have gotten).

Stever, that's a new low even for you. The exposure UConn is getting in the American is BETTER than the exposure they got in the Old Big East? What planet did that comment come from?

[Xudash]

But recruiting hasn't dropped off for UConn. If anything, it's picked up in the AAC(part of that is the exposure that was in the old Big East was really not that good at all compared to what both the New Big East and the AAC have gotten).

Stever, that's a new low even for you. The exposure UConn is getting in the American is BETTER than the exposure they got in the Old Big East? What planet did that comment come from?

Wow.

Yes. That was an absurd statement to make.

[stever20]

But recruiting hasn't dropped off for UConn. If anything, it's picked up in the AAC(part of that is the exposure that was in the old Big East was really not that good at all compared to what both the New Big East and the AAC have gotten).

Stever, that's a new low even for you. The exposure UConn is getting in the American is BETTER than the exposure they got in the Old Big East? What planet did that comment come from?

The old Big East TV contract was NOT good in terms of Exposure. UConn in 2012-13 season had for the 18 conference games.
4 ESPNU
7 regional sports network
4 ESPN
3 ESPN2

this year-
ESPN2 1
CBSSN 7
ESPN/ESPN 2 4
ESPNU 3
ESPN 1
CBS 2

I'd take what they have this year over what they used to get any time. I think the old contract was far to reliant on regional sports networks, that you can't always get the games.

[xusandy]

Back to conference re-alignment, and as I've posted several times here in the past:
(1) UConn is just plain NOT a good fit with our current league (they are public, not private, with the financial disclosure issues that entails, plus they are football driven instead of bball driven, plus they are NOT a "values-oriented" institution as we define that term. That's 3 strikes, and you're out and you get no invitation ever ever ever ever to re-join the BEAST, despite your gloried bball history. (BTW, I do hope UConn is able to schedule their former league-mates forever -- they have a history of great match-ups against St. John's and Syracuse in particular, and FWIW, I'd also like to see them eventually get into a P5 conference (Hail Mary) and end our speculations about them forever!)
(2) St. Louis is the single best fit for BEAST expansion out there (they have a big media market, they "bridge the gap" to Creighton geographically, they're a "values-oriented" institution, and they bring a good athletics program in sports other than men's basketball -- eg. men's soccer.) 4 balls and you're on base -- Nobody else currently even comes close! The "weak sisters" in the ACC, SEC, or Big 10 (except maybe for Boston College -- and they'd have to give up football first to be viable (not likely!)) aren't good candidates either. What about A-10 teams like Dayton or Richmond? How about Detroit Mercy or Duquesne or Canisius or another Boston school for their media markets? Or Gonzaga or St. Marys, or maybe even both of them and an entire western division? All long shots, very long shots.

My bottom Line: we should neither need nor even want to expand at all in the foreseeable future. But if Fox or ESPN throws a TON of money at us to expand, well then .....

[Hall2012]

Back to conference re-alignment, and as I've posted several times here in the past:
(1) UConn is just plain NOT a good fit with our current league (they are public, not private, with the financial disclosure issues that entails, plus they are football driven instead of bball driven, plus they are NOT a "values-oriented" institution as we define that term. That's 3 strikes, and you're out and you get no invitation ever ever ever ever to re-join the BEAST, despite your gloried bball history. (BTW, I do hope UConn is able to schedule their former league-mates forever -- they have a history of great match-ups against St. John's and Syracuse in particular, and FWIW, I'd also like to see them eventually get into a P5 conference (Hail Mary) and end our speculations about them forever!)
(2) St. Louis is the single best fit for BEAST expansion out there (they have a big media market, they "bridge the gap" to Creighton geographically, they're a "values-oriented" institution, and they bring a good athletics program in sports other than men's basketball -- eg. men's soccer.) 4 balls and you're on base -- Nobody else currently even comes close! The "weak sisters" in the ACC, SEC, or Big 10 (except maybe for Boston College -- and they'd have to give up football first to be viable (not likely!)) aren't good candidates either. What about A-10 teams like Dayton or Richmond? How about Detroit Mercy or Duquesne or Canisius or another Boston school for their media markets? Or Gonzaga or St. Marys, or maybe even both of them and an entire western division? All long shots, very long shots.

My bottom Line: we should neither need nor even want to expand at all in the foreseeable future. But if Fox or ESPN throws a TON of money at us to expand, well then .....

Another feather in SLU's cap - St. Louis is already FS1's best market. That's mainly baseball related, but still something the league could capitalize on by adding the Billikens.

[Bluejay]

Wouldn't it be funny if Chaminade beats UConn?

[NJRedman]

Wouldn't it be funny if Chaminade beats UConn?

If that happens you might see a full on Huskie booster revolt. hahaha Fire Ollie, drop FB to FCS and beg for a spot in the BE.