Big East Games of Interest: 2015-2016

[stever20]

St Mary's only beats Portland 74-72. WCC looking more and more like a 1 bid.... looks like the only conferences getting at larges will be P5, BE, A10, AAC.

[Jet915]

UCLA drops a home game to Utah. Resume not looking great...

[stever20]

UCLA drops a home game to Utah. Resume not looking great...

how about just plain record there? 14-12. Probably need to go 4-1 to have any chance at the tourney.

[adoraz]

St Mary's only beats Portland 74-72. WCC looking more and more like a 1 bid.... looks like the only conferences getting at larges will be P5, BE, A10, AAC.

And even the AAC is no shoe in if things break the wrong way.

I'd look at it this way:
Tier 1 is Power 5 and Big East
Tier 2 is A10
Tier 3 is AAC

[stever20]

St Mary's only beats Portland 74-72. WCC looking more and more like a 1 bid.... looks like the only conferences getting at larges will be P5, BE, A10, AAC.

And even the AAC is no shoe in if things break the wrong way.

I'd look at it this way:
Tier 1 is Power 5 and Big East
Tier 2 is A10
Tier 3 is AAC

The AAC is pretty damn close now.... I mean, UConn is for all intents and purposes a lock now. Tulsa is top 46 in RPI and Ken Pom. And Cincy is still #60 in RPI with a top 30 KP rating. If Cincy beats either UConn or SMU at home- they're in pretty good shape. You could easily wind up with-
Cincy 22-9 with a 48 RPI and top 30 KP rating
Tulsa 21-9 with a 36 RPI and top 40 KP rating
UConn 22-9 with a 36 RPI and top 30 KP rating(and they could finish as high as 24-7 with a 23 RPI if they beat both Cincy and SMU on the road).

Tulsa and UConn would be pretty much locks, and Cincy would probably be in as well.... All 3 have at least 1 good OOC win.

A10 and AAC are the same tier.

[Westbrook#36]

I'm shocked I tell you, shocked, that stever would give the benefit of the doubt to a non BE for having a better win over a team with a worse record and worse rpi than the BE team. Again, I'm shocked.

Wisconsin 16-10 with an rpi of 49
Providence 19-8 with an rpi of 37

I think you ask about anyone who is playing better RIGHT now and they would say Wisconsin. Look at Bracketology. Lunardi had PC as an 8 and Wisconsin as a 9.

Like I said, with them being tied going into this week- and given both of them wound up winning their game by almost the exact same margin(MSU by 1 more)- it would be close regardless. Some will hinge on how X plays vs Georgetown this week. If they struggle, Michigan St would be ahead of them.

True there isn't much difference between the two wins, but then again that wasn't/doesn't change my point either. You're NEVER going to give the benefit of the doubt to the BE team if it's close. BTW what if MSU struggles with OSU?? Why not mention that as a possibility?? Not that rankings matter a whole lot, Xavier is probably a #1 seed right now, if not then the top #2. Although it would be cool to have a top 5 clash next Wed. @Cintas.

[stever20]

I'm shocked I tell you, shocked, that stever would give the benefit of the doubt to a non BE for having a better win over a team with a worse record and worse rpi than the BE team. Again, I'm shocked.

Wisconsin 16-10 with an rpi of 49
Providence 19-8 with an rpi of 37

I think you ask about anyone who is playing better RIGHT now and they would say Wisconsin. Look at Bracketology. Lunardi had PC as an 8 and Wisconsin as a 9.

Like I said, with them being tied going into this week- and given both of them wound up winning their game by almost the exact same margin(MSU by 1 more)- it would be close regardless. Some will hinge on how X plays vs Georgetown this week. If they struggle, Michigan St would be ahead of them.

True there isn't much difference between the two wins, but then again that wasn't/doesn't change my point either. You're NEVER going to give the benefit of the doubt to the BE team if it's close. BTW what if MSU struggles with OSU?? Why not mention that as a possibility?? Not that rankings matter a whole lot, Xavier is probably a #1 seed right now, if not then the top #2. Although it would be cool to have a top 5 clash next Wed. @Cintas.

why I didn't mention MSU struggling with Ohio St is that game is on Tuesday- after the polls have been released on Monday. So MSU could lose that game and it would have no bearing on next week's polls.

Still could be a top 5 matchup though. Only Nova, Kansas, Virginia for sure ahead of them(upsets pending). Michigan St maybe. I think it's between Oklahoma and Xavier for the 5th spot....

[XtoDC]

I would be mildly surprised if Xavier is in the top 5 unless there are some more wonky upsets ahead of them before the polls and Xavier blows the doors off of Georgetown. For MSU in particular I could easily see voters saying that MSU is back to playing like they were in the non conference after a rough stretch when Valentine was out/ getting reacclimated. The numbers and wins that Oklahoma has are still really impressive, and TT isn't an awful loss. It's just been a while since Xavier had a really big win that voters or the computers could get excited about. Next week will be a huge opportunity to see if Xavier belongs in that very top echelon.

I also agree with stever that the AAC is pretty likely to get at least two bids, and are way more likely to wind up with three than one. Sure, anything could happen, but it would require a lot of unexpected results for the AAC to just send one team to the tournament. The Atlantic 10 has to end up with three, right? St. Joe's and Dayton are pretty comfortably in right now, and then one of GW, Bonaventure, or VCU probably finishes strong enough to grab a bid. If those three all stink it up though and lose more than 1 regular season game the rest of the way the A 10 will need an upset in their tourney to send a third.

[stever20]

I would be mildly surprised if Xavier is in the top 5 unless there are some more wonky upsets ahead of them before the polls and Xavier blows the doors off of Georgetown. For MSU in particular I could easily see voters saying that MSU is back to playing like they were in the non conference after a rough stretch when Valentine was out/ getting reacclimated. The numbers and wins that Oklahoma has are still really impressive, and TT isn't an awful loss. It's just been a while since Xavier had a really big win that voters or the computers could get excited about. Next week will be a huge opportunity to see if Xavier belongs in that very top echelon.

I also agree with stever that the AAC is pretty likely to get at least two bids, and are way more likely to wind up with three than one. Sure, anything could happen, but it would require a lot of unexpected results for the AAC to just send one team to the tournament. The Atlantic 10 has to end up with three, right? St. Joe's and Dayton are pretty comfortably in right now, and then one of GW, Bonaventure, or VCU probably finishes strong enough to grab a bid. If those three all stink it up though and lose more than 1 regular season game the rest of the way the A 10 will need an upset in their tourney to send a third.

I'm not sure that GW, St Bonnies, or VCU get in. looking at Ken Pom- which is huge- VCU is 36(better than Dayton). But GW is 88 and St Bonnies are at 81. Given what we saw last year- don't think you can say either of those are all that realistic.... VCU has the best shot by far.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I'm not sure that GW, St Bonnies, or VCU get in. looking at Ken Pom- which is huge- VCU is 36(better than Dayton). But GW is 88 and St Bonnies are at 81. Given what we saw last year- don't think you can say either of those are all that realistic.... VCU has the best shot by far.

Wait VCU and GW are UC's best wins...so you're saying that there is a chance the Bearcats go before the Committee without one win OOC vs a potential tourney team. AND they lost to Temple twice and last night to Tulsa?

Uh-oh!