Early look at Saturday's games

[stever20]

Sat:
noon #59/74 Georgetown 7-5 14-11 @ #53/37 Providence 6-6 18-7- KP PC 72-68 67%
230pm #21/8 Xavier 9-3 21-3 @ #34/58 Butler 6-6 17-7 KP But 79-77 57%
8pm #42/85 Creighton 7-5 16-9 @ #103/95 Marquette 5-7 16-9 KP Cre 74-73 56%
8pm #255/208 St Johns 0-12 7-18 @ #1/3 Villanova 11-1 21-3- KP Nova 82-56 99%

3 pretty huge games.
Georgetown/PC- big chance for Georgetown to get a win they could so desperately need. Win here and things look a whole lot differently. For PC just a huge game. Outside DePaul and St John's, this is their highest percentage to win another game.
Xavier/Butler- really big for both teams. For X- chance to bounce back- and avoid falling to maybe even a 4 seed. For Butler- a chance to really put themselves in good shape with the bubble.
Creighton/Marquette. For Creighton kind of tough to see a path to the tourney w/o winning this one. For Marquette- huge game in attempt to finish in the top 100.

[Jet915]

Interesting that Creighton is a slight favorite.

[stever20]

Interesting that Creighton is a slight favorite.

Ken Pom has really liked Creighton all year long. They'd be even higher were it not for the Seton Hall debacle 2 weeks ago.... It'll be interesting to see how teams like them, Cincy in the AAC another one- are treated- great KP ratings- but RPI's not good at all.

[stever20]

did some looking. Ken Pom this year is 41-19 picking games so far straight up in BE conference play. Not too shabby I would say....

[marquette]

did some looking. Ken Pom this year is 41-19 picking games so far straight up in BE conference play. Not too shabby I would say....

Considering a random selection of each game would likely return a 30-30 record I'm not overly impressed. An opinion based on the eye test from OOC play would probably return similar results.

[stever20]

did some looking. Ken Pom this year is 41-19 picking games so far straight up in BE conference play. Not too shabby I would say....

Considering a random selection of each game would likely return a 30-30 record I'm not overly impressed. An opinion based on the eye test from OOC play would probably return similar results.

Well you figure the home teams struggling the way they did earlier didn't help much. I mean sorry but no one would have picked Marquette to beat PC a month ago. Or Creighton to beat Seton Hall.

[marquette]

No need to be sorry, I didn't have us beating PC either. All I'm saying is that I think Kenpom is useful for telling the overall strength of a team and which areas they are good/bad/average, but I don't think it is any more valuable for predicting individual games than any other method (except random selection).

[stever20]

No need to be sorry, I didn't have us beating PC either. All I'm saying is that I think Kenpom is useful for telling the overall strength of a team and which areas they are good/bad/average, but I don't think it is any more valuable for predicting individual games than any other method (except random selection).

I think it's better than you think. I mean I'm looking at some of the losses- absolutely no one would see it.... Even some of their losses, they said the game was 50/50. Like Tuesday night- the Creighton/Xavier game they said that it was 51% Xavier. Or last night's PC/Marquette game- they had it PC winning with a 53% chance. I don't think a lot of folks would have given Creighton or Marquette much chance..... but Ken Pom nailed it that those teams would have a chance.. So like they went 2-3 this cycle- but were right on 2 of those losses being closer than folks would have thought.

For a league with so much parity to have something picking the games at nearly a 70% clip- that's pretty good.

[stever20]

I actually redid it a bit slower and came up now at 43-17..... Winning pct of 71.7%.

even if you take out the top 8 teams games with DePaul/St John's- 22-2 in those games- it's still 21-15. 58.3%.

[NovaBall]

back to back Big FOX games? Noon and 2:30?

Both are very good games. Great weekend of action!