How many Tournament bids?

[NovaBall]

Looking like a 4 bid league.

Maybe butler makes a run, but they have a tough oath to get to .500 in conference.

Seton Hall looking good

[jaxalum]

We need 5. Period. We need to a least lurk within what the F5 is sending. College basketball fans look at many things, but I would be pretty confident that the the two stats that tend to stick out are 1) Number of teams receiving bids from a conference. 2) Their advancement in the tournament.

To some extent, I tend to think the amount of teams we can CONSISTENTLY get into the tournament optically is maybe a bit more attractive to a recruit. There are only so many Dukes and Kentuckys that make those deep runs. I'm obviously not saying we don't need to improve upon our tourney success, I am of the opinion that this great conference of ours is more attractive when a recruit believes 60% of the conference will make it the Big Dance. And ANYTHING is possible from there.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

So how many are we realistically looking at now? I'd be happy with 5.

to me right now-
best case scenario is 5 bids, with no one going to Dayton.
worst case scenario is 4 bids, with a team going to Dayton.

If RPI Forecast is correct, 3 bids is now a possibility, as both Butler and Seton Hall are currently predicted by to be two of the first teams out:

RPI Forecast – through games of Feb. 2, 2016

Projected Final RPI Ranking – Team • Projected W-L Record

2 – Villanova • 26-5
5 – Xavier • 25-5
37 – Providence • 22-9
52 – Butler • 20-10 (predicted 3-6 vs. RPI Top 50)
54 – Seton Hall • 20-10 (predicted 3-5 vs. RPI Top 50)
70 – Georgetown • 17-14
86 – Creighton • 18-13
115 – Marquette • 18-13
168 – DePaul • 11-19
221 – St. John’s • 7-23

Butler and Seton Hall have not yet played each other this season, and RPI Forecast is predicting a split.
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RPI Forecast – BUTLER - through games of Feb. 2, 2016 (8 games remaining. Predicted: 6-2)

Date • Opponent (Opponent’s Forecast Final RPI Ranking) • Location • Predicted W/L Predicted Point Spread

2-6 • St. John's (224.3) • Away • W 14.0
2-10 • Seton Hall (56.0) • Away • L -0.3
2-13 • Xavier (7.0) • Home • W 0.2
2-16 • Creighton (89.8) • Home • W 6.7
2-20 • Villanova (5.0) • Away • L -8.6
2-27 • Georgetown (70.7) • Away • W 1.4
3-2 • Seton Hall (56.0) • Home • W 6.2
3-5 • Marquette (117.8) • Home • W 11.5

Butler needs to go 7-1, which likely means they need to win at Seton Hall on February 10th.
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RPI Forecast – SETON HALL - through games of Feb. 2, 2016 (9 games remaining. Predicted: 6-3)

Date • Opponent (Opponent’s Forecast Final RPI Ranking) • Location • Predicted W/L Predicted Point Spread

2-3 • Marquette (117.8) • Home • W 8.6
2-6 • Georgetown (70.7) • Home • W 5.0
2-10 • Butler (52.9) • Home • W 0.3
2-17 • Georgetown (70.7) • Away • L -1.6
2-21 • St. John's (224.3) • Away • W 11.0
2-25 • Providence (40.8) • Home • W 4.1
2-28 • Xavier (7.0) • Home • L -2.8
3-2 • Butler (52.9) • Away • L -6.2
3-5 • DePaul (165.9) • Away • W 5.8

Seton Hall needs to go 7-2, which likely means they need to win at Georgetown on February 17th or sweep Butler.
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It is self-evident that Butler and Seton Hall could greatly improve their chances of getting an at-large invitation by making it to the BE Tournament Championship game, but neither team should count on upsetting Villanova or Xavier in a BE Tournament semifinal game.

In short, it is highly unlikely that both Butler and Seton Hall will make the NCAA tournament field, but if one of these two teams can separate themselves from the other, the better team will receive a bid.

The worst-case scenario is if RPI Forecast is correct, in which the Big East will likely receive only 3 NCAA Tournament invitations.

If you consider ‘bubble teams’ to be those who have RPI Rankings of 45 to 55 on Selection Sunday, such teams with winning W-L records against RPI Top 50 teams will get priority over teams with losing W-L records against RPI Top 50 teams, which will not benefit Butler or Seton Hall.

It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

[DudeAnon]

So how many are we realistically looking at now? I'd be happy with 5.

to me right now-
best case scenario is 5 bids, with no one going to Dayton.
worst case scenario is 4 bids, with a team going to Dayton.

If RPI Forecast is correct, 3 bids is now a possibility, as both Butler and Seton Hall are currently predicted by to be two of the first teams out:

RPI Forecast – through games of Feb. 2, 2016

Projected Final RPI Ranking – Team • Projected W-L Record

2 – Villanova • 26-5
5 – Xavier • 25-5
37 – Providence • 22-9
52 – Butler • 20-10 (predicted 3-6 vs. RPI Top 50)
54 – Seton Hall • 20-10 (predicted 3-5 vs. RPI Top 50)
70 – Georgetown • 17-14
86 – Creighton • 18-13
115 – Marquette • 18-13
168 – DePaul • 11-19
221 – St. John’s • 7-23

Butler and Seton Hall have not yet played each other this season, and RPI Forecast is predicting a split.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RPI Forecast – BUTLER - through games of Feb. 2, 2016 (8 games remaining. Predicted: 6-2)

Date • Opponent (Opponent’s Forecast Final RPI Ranking) • Location • Predicted W/L Predicted Point Spread

2-6 • St. John's (224.3) • Away • W 14.0
2-10 • Seton Hall (56.0) • Away • L -0.3
2-13 • Xavier (7.0) • Home • W 0.2
2-16 • Creighton (89.8) • Home • W 6.7
2-20 • Villanova (5.0) • Away • L -8.6
2-27 • Georgetown (70.7) • Away • W 1.4
3-2 • Seton Hall (56.0) • Home • W 6.2
3-5 • Marquette (117.8) • Home • W 11.5

Butler needs to go 7-1, which likely means they need to win at Seton Hall on February 10th.
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RPI Forecast – SETON HALL - through games of Feb. 2, 2016 (9 games remaining. Predicted: 6-3)

Date • Opponent (Opponent’s Forecast Final RPI Ranking) • Location • Predicted W/L Predicted Point Spread

2-3 • Marquette (117.8) • Home • W 8.6
2-6 • Georgetown (70.7) • Home • W 5.0
2-10 • Butler (52.9) • Home • W 0.3
2-17 • Georgetown (70.7) • Away • L -1.6
2-21 • St. John's (224.3) • Away • W 11.0
2-25 • Providence (40.8) • Home • W 4.1
2-28 • Xavier (7.0) • Home • L -2.8
3-2 • Butler (52.9) • Away • L -6.2
3-5 • DePaul (165.9) • Away • W 5.8

Seton Hall needs to go 7-2, which likely means they need to win at Georgetown on February 17th or sweep Butler.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is self-evident that Butler and Seton Hall could greatly improve their chances of getting an at-large invitation by making it to the BE Tournament Championship game, but neither team should count on upsetting Villanova or Xavier in a BE Tournament semifinal game.

In short, it is highly unlikely that both Butler and Seton Hall will make the NCAA tournament field, but if one of these two teams can separate themselves from the other, the better team will receive a bid.

The worst-case scenario is if RPI Forecast is correct, in which the Big East will likely receive only 3 NCAA Tournament invitations.

If you consider ‘bubble teams’ to be those who have RPI Rankings of 45 to 55 on Selection Sunday, such teams with winning W-L records against RPI Top 50 teams will get priority over teams with losing W-L records against RPI Top 50 teams, which will not benefit Butler or Seton Hall.

It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

Fair or not, if the RPI forecast plays out. Then we get 5 teams in. Seton Hall and Butler both have key non-con wins (Witchita St. w/Van Vleet and Purdue). As far as I can tell neither have bad losses. And the committe has been very friendly to the BE so far. So I wouldn't bet on it, but if those are the RPI's then we get 5.

[stever20]

If Seton Hall and Butler go 5-3 the rest of the way- both will be in the tourney, period.
Seton Hall- 21-9 projected RPI is 46.8.
Butler- 20-10 projected RPI is 51.8

Both would be in the top 50 in Ken Pom(and more likely top 40)...

Seton Hall would be in no matter what for the BET....
Butler may have to win 1st rd game- BUT at 9-9, that could be vs St John's. If they are playing in the QF 1st rd, they would be safe period......

Seton Hall beating Marquette makes 3 bids IMO now pretty close to a no chance possibility.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

RPI Ranking - Team (Overall W/L; Conf. W/L) • W/L vs. RPI Top 50

36 – Seton Hall (17-6; 7-4) • 2-4 vs. RPI Top 50

68 – Butler (16-7; 5-6) • 1-5 vs. RPI Top 50


Yahoo! Odds

Seton Hall is favored at home by 3 or -3½ points over Butler tonight.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Bubble breakdown: Creighton restores hope with marquee win - Jeff Eisenber, The Dagger - Yahoo! - February 9, 2016

On the fringes of the bubble picture entering Tuesday night, Creighton landed the marquee win it needed to get back to within striking distance of an NCAA tournament bid.

Point guard Maurice Watson scored 32 points and dished out five assists to lead the Bluejays to a 70-56 upset of visiting fifth-ranked Xavier.

Creighton's victory gives it hope of a late surge during the final three weeks of Big East play. The Bluejays are 16-9 overall and 7-5 in the Big East, but their most noteworthy wins prior to Tuesday night came against fellow bubble teams Seton Hall, Butler and Georgetown.

Now the Bluejays at least have one truly big win on their resume. Xavier (21-3, 9-3) had been just a game behind first-place Villanova in the Big East standings prior to suffering its third conference loss.

Of Creighton's six remaining Big East games, four are on the road against Xavier, Providence, Butler and Marquette. The Bluejays probably need to win at least two of those and hold serve at home against St. John's and Marquette to have realistic hope entering the Big East tournament.

That won't be easy, but give Creighton credit for even being in this position in what was thought to be a second straight post-Doug McDermott rebuilding year. Three of the team's four leading scorers have one more year of eligibility left, a strong recruiting class is on its way and things are looking up once again for the Bluejays.

[cu blujs]

With their non-con, if Butler can get to .500, they should get in, as long as no more losses to anyone below top 4. Same with PC. I think we get 5, but the 5th place team might get bumped if someone not in the top 5 wins the BET.

[stever20]

With their non-con, if Butler can get to .500, they should get in, as long as no more losses to anyone below top 4. Same with PC. I think we get 5, but the 5th place team might get bumped if someone not in the top 5 wins the BET.

4 seems set....
Nova, X, PC, SH are close to locks- SH if they win tonight especially....

really only 3 other possibles...
Butler- needs to go 4-3 rest of way. @ SH, X, Cre, @ Nova, @ Geo, SH, Marq. Projected to go 4-3 with wins over X, Cre, SH, Marq. RPI forecast- 70% chance of getting in.
Georgetown- needs to go 4-2 rest of way. @ PC, SH, X, But, @ Marq, @ Nova. Projected to go 3-3 with wins over SH, But, @ Marq. RPI forecast 16.5% chance of getting in.
Creighton- needs to go 5-1 probably rest of way. @ Marq, @ But, Marq, SJ, @ PC, @ X. Projected to go 3-3 with wins over Marq 2x, SJ RPI forecast 11% chance of getting in.

really all it would take would be a win by Seton Hall over Butler @ Butler(the 2nd game) and Butler is in trouble.

But then again- all it would take would be a win by Georgetown over PC or X or Nova- and 6 comes into play more.

I'd probably say right now. 4- 65%. 5-30%. 6-5%

[Hall2012]

If RPI Forecast is correct, 3 bids is now a possibility, as both Butler and Seton Hall are currently predicted by to be two of the first teams out:

RPI Forecast – through games of Feb. 2, 2016

Projected Final RPI Ranking – Team • Projected W-L Record

2 – Villanova • 26-5
5 – Xavier • 25-5
37 – Providence • 22-9
52 – Butler • 20-10 (predicted 3-6 vs. RPI Top 50)
54 – Seton Hall • 20-10 (predicted 3-5 vs. RPI Top 50)
70 – Georgetown • 17-14
86 – Creighton • 18-13
115 – Marquette • 18-13
168 – DePaul • 11-19
221 – St. John’s • 7-23

Butler and Seton Hall have not yet played each other this season, and RPI Forecast is predicting a split.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RPI Forecast – BUTLER - through games of Feb. 2, 2016 (8 games remaining. Predicted: 6-2)

Date • Opponent (Opponent’s Forecast Final RPI Ranking) • Location • Predicted W/L Predicted Point Spread

2-6 • St. John's (224.3) • Away • W 14.0
2-10 • Seton Hall (56.0) • Away • L -0.3
2-13 • Xavier (7.0) • Home • W 0.2
2-16 • Creighton (89.8) • Home • W 6.7
2-20 • Villanova (5.0) • Away • L -8.6
2-27 • Georgetown (70.7) • Away • W 1.4
3-2 • Seton Hall (56.0) • Home • W 6.2
3-5 • Marquette (117.8) • Home • W 11.5

Butler needs to go 7-1, which likely means they need to win at Seton Hall on February 10th.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RPI Forecast – SETON HALL - through games of Feb. 2, 2016 (9 games remaining. Predicted: 6-3)

Date • Opponent (Opponent’s Forecast Final RPI Ranking) • Location • Predicted W/L Predicted Point Spread

2-3 • Marquette (117.8) • Home • W 8.6
2-6 • Georgetown (70.7) • Home • W 5.0
2-10 • Butler (52.9) • Home • W 0.3
2-17 • Georgetown (70.7) • Away • L -1.6
2-21 • St. John's (224.3) • Away • W 11.0
2-25 • Providence (40.8) • Home • W 4.1
2-28 • Xavier (7.0) • Home • L -2.8
3-2 • Butler (52.9) • Away • L -6.2
3-5 • DePaul (165.9) • Away • W 5.8

Seton Hall needs to go 7-2, which likely means they need to win at Georgetown on February 17th or sweep Butler.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It is self-evident that Butler and Seton Hall could greatly improve their chances of getting an at-large invitation by making it to the BE Tournament Championship game, but neither team should count on upsetting Villanova or Xavier in a BE Tournament semifinal game.

In short, it is highly unlikely that both Butler and Seton Hall will make the NCAA tournament field, but if one of these two teams can separate themselves from the other, the better team will receive a bid.

The worst-case scenario is if RPI Forecast is correct, in which the Big East will likely receive only 3 NCAA Tournament invitations.

If you consider ‘bubble teams’ to be those who have RPI Rankings of 45 to 55 on Selection Sunday, such teams with winning W-L records against RPI Top 50 teams will get priority over teams with losing W-L records against RPI Top 50 teams, which will not benefit Butler or Seton Hall.

It will be very interesting to see how this all plays out.

Well then it's a good thing rpi forecast is wrong, because if it plays out as predicted here, Seton Hall would go into the BET at 21-9, not the predicted 20-10