Bracketology

[Xudash]

Nova is #3 in KenPom and #2 in the RPI. It's not like there isn't statistical support for their ranking.

Maybe this will be their year.

I know, but whenever I'm watching I'm always thinking how beatable they look. Maybe they're lulling me to sleep.

There's not a team in the country that doesn't look beatable, including Xavier. There are no dominate teams this year.

Exactly.

The Tournament proves every year that it is its own thing. We know about how it comes down to match-ups and even luck sometimes, but it truly is about those teams that really gel and come together and get hot and all that. Momentum - - the big "MO."

Job One: Get as many teams in from the BE as possible.

Job Two: Get as many of those as highly seeded as possible (i.e. it's a strategy statement; I know how the math works out when it comes to doing that with a 10 team conference).

Job Three: Have as many members as possible make deep runs, punching through to the F4 in at least one case.

The Big East continues to do most of what it needs to do in the regular season to position itself for Tournament success. We simply get to enjoy the rest of the ride to March from here, then we'll see what happens - -hopefully with this board ablaze from April 2 - 4.

[PhillyPirate]

As much as I'd like to see at least a second weekend appearance or better from Villanova, I think the BigEast's best bets for a deep tourney run are Xavier and Providence. I can see Dunn willing PC to winning a couple games and X's balance should allow them to match up well with just about any opponent.[/quote]

Providence I see both extremes either going far or losing early. Team with two studs with very little supporting cast. Foul trouble hits Bentil or Dunn with nobody else contributing could have them bounced. Can play with anyone though

[MUPanther]

FOX Bracket
http://www.foxsports.com/college-basket ... ion-020216

[Hall2012]

As much as I'd like to see at least a second weekend appearance or better from Villanova, I think the BigEast's best bets for a deep tourney run are Xavier and Providence. I can see Dunn willing PC to winning a couple games and X's balance should allow them to match up well with just about any opponent.

Providence I see both extremes either going far or losing early. Team with two studs with very little supporting cast. Foul trouble hits Bentil or Dunn with nobody else contributing could have them bounced. Can play with anyone though[/quote]

I agree here. Dunn is the type of player who could be capable of going full on Kemba Walker and single handedly win the national championship. On the other hand, if an opponent can successfully contain him and Bentil, thus forcing other guys to beat them, the Friars could be in trouble early.

[XtoDC]

I have no doubt this year that Villanova will at least make it to the Sweet Sixteen, and without seeing the bracket my guess would be they finish in the Elite Eight. Their defense doesn't take nights off, and they for sure won't lack for motivation once the tourney tips off. Having Xavier ranked so high alongside them I think also takes some pressure off (however minimal).

The tourney as we all know is unpredictable but is where teams ultimately get their rep. I don't subscribe very much to the 'clutch' gene but I do believe in sample sizes, so the 10 or so games that Villanova has lost over the past two and a half years matter far less to me than the 80 or whatever games they have won.

[ChelseaFriar]

Providence I see both extremes either going far or losing early. Team with two studs with very little supporting cast. Foul trouble hits Bentil or Dunn with nobody else contributing could have them bounced. Can play with anyone though

Completely agree. PC being bounced in round one would not surprise me. Also wouldn't surprise me if they are playing in the second weekend.

[Westbrook#36]

Providence I see both extremes either going far or losing early. Team with two studs with very little supporting cast. Foul trouble hits Bentil or Dunn with nobody else contributing could have them bounced. Can play with anyone though

Completely agree. PC being bounced in round one would not surprise me. Also wouldn't surprise me if they are playing in the second weekend.

+1

PC could lose in the 1st round or make the E8 or better. When Dunn and Bentil get some help there's not a team in the country they can't beat. If they don't get help or Dunn/Bentil has an off night and if Providence plays like knuckleheads as they showed last night they can lose to pretty much anyone. Still a very very dangerous team come tourney time, you probably don't want them in your portion of the bracket.

[stever20]

What PC is going to find now is their road is going to be tougher than expected even a few weeks ago. They're looking at like a 6 or 7 seed I think so 1st game even will be with a team that could beat them. Instead of seeing someone like an Akron, South Dakota St- someone of that ilk, they're looking at someone more like a Cincy, Gonzaga type of team. Also if they're a 6, they could be once again at the mercy of playing a first 4 winner. Those teams do extremely well for themselves the next round(think a first 4 winner has gone on to win at least 1 game in all 5 years- and are 5-5 overall in the 5 years in the round of 64).

comment from Ed Cooley last year regarding the 1st 4 winner:
The one factor that bothers me....and I don't know how the committee could ever change it or fix it — but the layoff and preparation factor is a different animal if you're playing the winner of a play-in game. We had a great season and earned a 6 seed in the tournament. However, after finding out our fate on Selection Sunday, we don't get to prepare with our kids for the Friday night opponent until Thursday afternoon.

[ChelseaFriar]

What PC is going to find now is their road is going to be tougher than expected even a few weeks ago. They're looking at like a 6 or 7 seed I think so 1st game even will be with a team that could beat them. Instead of seeing someone like an Akron, South Dakota St- someone of that ilk, they're looking at someone more like a Cincy, Gonzaga type of team. Also if they're a 6, they could be once again at the mercy of playing a first 4 winner. Those teams do extremely well for themselves the next round(think a first 4 winner has gone on to win at least 1 game in all 5 years- and are 5-5 overall in the 5 years in the round of 64).

comment from Ed Cooley last year regarding the 1st 4 winner:
The one factor that bothers me....and I don't know how the committee could ever change it or fix it — but the layoff and preparation factor is a different animal if you're playing the winner of a play-in game. We had a great season and earned a 6 seed in the tournament. However, after finding out our fate on Selection Sunday, we don't get to prepare with our kids for the Friday night opponent until Thursday afternoon.

Yeah, last year PC got completely shafted with the game also being in Ohio. However, they were beyond terrible (similar to last night).

Regarding this year, other than the first round I'm not so sure how much seeding helps PC. I think it all depends on which PC team shows up if they want to make it to the second weekend. As we've seen, it doesn't matter who they play if the good PC doesn't show up. I'd like for them to avoid the 8/9 game - playing a 1 seed in round 2 if they win wouldn't be fun. Other than that I don't really care at this point. I'd rather PC get a 10 or 11 seed than an 8/9.

[NovaBigEastFan85]

The biggest difference between this year's Nova team and last year's is that even though they both shoot "3s" at a high volume, last year's team was more reliant at needing a high % of making them whereas this year's team is winning in-spite of that. Mainly because they are really good at getting to the rim, getting transition shots when they are there, forcing TOs and their D never takes a night off especially since the UVA game and the UVA was them having an unbelievable day from 3(as well as making their FTs at the end to pull away). Plus they know how to play at a slower tempo, in fact, their better at it than in at a faster pace and in a tournament setting, the game slows down and possessions are that much more valued.

So that said, Nova and X are safely in the top 2 lines of the bracket for right now. Providence is more like a 5 seed on the S Curve and I would say that if there is going to be a 4th team, it would be Hall and I think they are going to do it. Butler's problem is that they are terrible defensively and they are very efficient offensive(#14 in Adj Off according to Ken Pom) but it's not enough to overcome their deficiencies defensively. The other teams in the mix(G-Town, Creighton, Marquette) need to make a major RS run to give them NCAAs hope, so I think we're looking at 4 teams at the most.