Saturday's Games 1/30

[stever20]

After tonight we got four teams in:

1) Nova
2) X
3) PC
4) The HALL!

who will fight for that fifth bid?

realistically it can only be Butler. Georgetown loses again making it harder for them. FEBRUARY IS HERE!!!!!

Butler has two against the Hall also, so if Butler makes it, I think they knock them out. GT, CU and Butler need a lot of wins and very few losses to get back into contention. Tough year and I think were going to end up with 3 unless one of the 4 next teams goes on a run.

Georgetown has 2 with the Hall as well..... So if Butler and Georgetown go on a roll, that would hurt Seton Hall conversely.

[MUPanther]

if that score holds- Seton Hall's KP will go up big time and Creightons KP rating will absolutely crater- talking like 20-30 positions.

You love your numbers way too much.

[XUFan09]

Still, a huge difference. Plus, we don't what the committee all views.

actually we do. the NCAA published team sheets last year. It's broken down into 4 columns. Top 50, 51-100, 101-200, and 201 up.

Here they are from last year.
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/MBB_RPI/MBBTeam.pdf

and looking right now at Butlers thing right now, there would be no gap at all between Marquette and DePaul.

The bottom line right now, Marquette is just as bad of a loss as DePaul is. Unless Marquette can go from looks of things 4-5 rest of the way, that's going to be the case. Plus, Marquettes tougher half of the season in conference play is still to come.

The Selection Committee isn't as married to basic numbers as you make them out to be. All they form is a bare outline, but the members get down to the details when discussing teams. They know that though Marquette and DePaul might appear to be in the same category, but they have enough details to know that losing to one isn't like losing to the other.

[stever20]

If you are a sub 100 RPI team, its a bad loss for those teams that lose to you... There may be degrees of bad losses, but it's still considered a bad loss.... Oh and another thing where Marquette would get lumped in with DePaul- DePaul BEAT Marquette.

Was thinking about things.... For Butler, Seton Hall, and Georgetown, all 3 need at least 5 wins, if not 6... The 3 have a double round robin left with each other....

If any of them go 4-0, they are going to be in. All Georgetown would need is a win over St John's. Seton Hall, 2 wins over St John's and DePaul(they only need 5 wins but a loss to St John's or DePaul would hurt quite a bit). Butler would need wins over St John's and Marquette. All should be extremely doable.
if any goes 3-1- Georgetown would need wins over St John's and then 1 other- most likely @ Marquette I guess. Seton Hall those 2 over St John's and DePaul. Butler would need the 2 I listed plus a 3rd....
2-2 and it gets dicey for everyone. Georgetown and Butler would be in deep trouble. Georgetown would need 3 wins between St John's, @ PC, Xavier, @ Marquette, and @ Nova. Butler would need 4 wins between @ St John's, Xavier, Creighton, @ Nova, and Marquette. Seton Hall would need a win over a group of Marquette, Providence, Xavier(all 3 at home).

Another thing we haven't said about Butler yet- forget the NCAA tourney, they are 2 games back just to avoid having to play on Wednesday night in the BET.....
right now- here's the BET bracket-
Wed-
7 Marquette 4-5 @ 10 St John's 0-8
8 Butler 3-6 vs 9 DePaul 1-8

Thu
1 Villanova 7-1 vs 8/9 winner
4 Georgetown 6-3 vs 5 Seton Hall 5-4
2 Xavier 7-2 vs 7/10 winner
3 Providence 6-3 vs 6 Creighton 5-4

Butler will have to play well to just avoid that. Would make playing their way into the tourney thru the BET MUCH tougher- another day of wear and tear- and also Nova in the QF.

[PorthosPA]

Man, do I love hearing about X in the 1 seed equation. As a math guy, do I hate hearing about locks.

Just using X as an example- X is 19-2. X is now listed as a lock. What happens if X loses their last 9 and lose in the BE tourney? they finish 19-12, 2-12 last 12 (a huge factor for the committee). Are they a lock at that point? There is no lock until March hits, at that point, a team like X (or Nova) then becomes a lock. Anything can happen before then. A team plane can crash or Buddy Hield's girlfriend can cheat on him with Baker Mayfield. Crap happens. Statistically, this "lock" crap pisses me off.

[stever20]

Man, do I love hearing about X in the 1 seed equation. As a math guy, do I hate hearing about locks.

Just using X as an example- X is 19-2. X is now listed as a lock. What happens if X loses their last 9 and lose in the BE tourney? they finish 19-12, 2-12 last 12 (a huge factor for the committee). Are they a lock at that point? There is no lock until March hits, at that point, a team like X (or Nova) then becomes a lock. Anything can happen before then. A team plane can crash or Buddy Hield's girlfriend can cheat on him with Baker Mayfield. Crap happens. Statistically, this "lock" crap pisses me off.

Nova back in 2011 at a point was 17-2 and then 19-4. They proceeded to lose 7 of their last 9 games(and 9 of 13). And they made it as a 9 seed I believe. So this Xavier team is 19-2 right now.

Xavier if they lose out right now would have a RPI entering the BET of 44. They would be fine....

Also about last 12- meaningless. Games in November mean as much as games in February.

[PorthosPA]

Man, do I love hearing about X in the 1 seed equation. As a math guy, do I hate hearing about locks.

Just using X as an example- X is 19-2. X is now listed as a lock. What happens if X loses their last 9 and lose in the BE tourney? they finish 19-12, 2-12 last 12 (a huge factor for the committee). Are they a lock at that point? There is no lock until March hits, at that point, a team like X (or Nova) then becomes a lock. Anything can happen before then. A team plane can crash or Buddy Hield's girlfriend can cheat on him with Baker Mayfield. Crap happens. Statistically, this "lock" crap pisses me off.

Nova back in 2011 at a point was 17-2 and then 19-4. They proceeded to lose 7 of their last 9 games(and 9 of 13). And they made it as a 9 seed I believe. So this Xavier team is 19-2 right now.

Xavier if they lose out right now would have a RPI entering the BET of 44. They would be fine....

Also about last 12- meaningless. Games in November mean as much as games in February.

The committee would be foolish to include a team that's lost it's last 10 games over a team a few spots below them that finished 9-1. That would never happen unless the name on the front of the jersey was Duke, Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona, UCLA, etc.

[gofriars08]

If the league wants to have 5 bids, they're going to need a few teams like Creighton, SHU, Butler, or Marquette to win against PC but especially Nova/Xavier. So far, Georgetown is the only one with a win against X/Nova.

Simply put, if X and Nova both end up 1/2 seeds, it probably means only four bids for the league, as the guys in the 5-7 range will just be too bunched up together and without a way to differentiate the resume. Georgetown missed a big one IMO last night against PC - that's a swing game for them that could have pushed them onto the right side of the bubble.

[whiteandblue77]

Man, do I love hearing about X in the 1 seed equation. As a math guy, do I hate hearing about locks.

Just using X as an example- X is 19-2. X is now listed as a lock. What happens if X loses their last 9 and lose in the BE tourney? they finish 19-12, 2-12 last 12 (a huge factor for the committee). Are they a lock at that point? There is no lock until March hits, at that point, a team like X (or Nova) then becomes a lock. Anything can happen before then. A team plane can crash or Buddy Hield's girlfriend can cheat on him with Baker Mayfield. Crap happens. Statistically, this "lock" crap pisses me off.

Stever is a tool, that's a lock.

[EMT]

Big East might be a 3 bid league....