Conference of the Americas......one-bid

[adoraz]

Ok Stever...

1. I know bad losses are 100+. I thought 94 and 98 were close enough to that where I wouldn't need to clarify everything. So, 2 and 6 spots off from being bad losses. Better?

2. I use ESPN RPI because I trust it more than the smaller sites like real time RPI and all that. Maybe it's not the best source, I don't know but do know ESPN rankings are pretty close to the real thing. Maybe CBS's are the best?

3. After yesterday's games Tulsa is #1 at 71. UConn is 75 and Cincy is 90. I know teams can be hurt if advanced metrics aren't strong enough, but please don't play stupid. You know that it's very difficult to make the tournament without a top 50 RPI. Please don't cite X example of RPI #53 team making it 3 years ago.

4. UC of course are by no means out of it. Not even close. But they have a lot of work to do because as of today they likely wouldn't be in the tournament.

5. Yes the AAC on average may be better than last year but when you have no top 70 teams that means nothing. Last year they still finished with 4 top 50 teams. I don't see that happening this year. One bid is still a possibility, and I'm saying this is JANUARY.

[stever20]

Ok Stever...

1. I know bad losses are 100+. I thought 94 and 98 were close enough to that where I wouldn't need to clarify everything. So, 2 and 6 spots off from being bad losses. Better?

2. I use ESPN RPI because I trust it more than the smaller sites like real time RPI and all that. Maybe it's not the best source, I don't know but do know ESPN rankings are pretty close to the real thing. Maybe CBS's are the best?

3. After yesterday's games Tulsa is #1 at 71. UConn is 75 and Cincy is 90. I know teams can be hurt if advanced metrics aren't strong enough, but please don't play stupid. You know that it's very difficult to make the tournament without a top 50 RPI. Please don't cite X example of RPI #53 team making it 3 years ago.

4. UC of course are by no means put of it. Not even close. But they have a lot of work to do because as of today they likely wouldn't be in the tournament.

5. Yes the AAC on average may be better than last year but when you have no top 70 teams that means nothing. Last year they still finished with 4 top 50 teams. I don't see that happening this year. One bid is still a possibility, and I'm saying this is JANUARY.

I use Warren Nolan. That site seems to be the best. And it's real time updated as games end....

You can act like teams aren't going to jump, but when UConn jumped up 23 spots by beating Memphis, doesn't that tell you something? #77 UConn plays @ #64 Tulsa on Tuesday. UConn will be pushing 60 if they win that game. Then they play @ Houston(who is 9.4-1.6). If UConn wins there, they'll be in the top 50 easily, if not higher. You say fine, that's great for UConn, what about Cincy. They are #88 right now. They play @ USF today. While not great, it still would improve their own record by 1.4 wins(which is big now given they are only 8.8-5.4 or .619. They would improve to .654 with a road win today). But then they get Houston, @ Temple, and Memphis next 3 games. They would jump up about as quickly as UConn quite frankly with those 3 games. So your point about it being tough to get in if not in top 50 is just not all that relevant to things. Because if Cincy and UConn do well enough- and that's not dominating but just 11-5 or 11-4- they'll be in the top 50 before the conference tourney. Then if they both make the finals, it's pretty much impossible to see either one left out at all.... And would be not just in but comfortably in as single digit seeds.

Also these teams do have a weaker SMU team on the schedule. SMU is going to go like 28-2 or something like that. A SMU win would be HUGE for teams RPI.

Also the conference could pretty easily finish with 4 top 50 teams- to include SMU.

[Westbrook#36]

If the aac wants more than the auto-bid, then a bunch of schools have to make hay. SMU is pissed and is shooting for an undefeated season, I don't think they're in a mood to spread the wealth around this year. UConn and Cincy probably need to get to 13-5 in conference to feel fairly safe. It does that conference no good for 5 teams to finish well behind SMU bunched together at between 10-12 conference wins. Their needs to be some separation and I don't really see that happening this year.

[adoraz]

Stever your viewpoint on AAC is overly optimistic while your viewpoint on the Big East is usually overly pessimistic. Of course whatever AAC team could win X, Y, and Z games and jump however many spots. On the other hand, they could lose to RPI killers that make up the majority of the league. The UC schools are playing from behind right now.

You can throw out however many scenarios you want but fact of the matter is the AAC as of today has zero top 70 RPI teams. Zero. That is remarkable.

Frankly I expect at least one team to finish around 40 RPI and maybe a second flirting around 50. I think a couple teams will start to separate themselves. But the fact you don't see the issue with how poorly the AAC has played thus far is stunning.

I'm not saying the AAC is dead or they will never recover from the last couple years, but pretty much everyone but you can acknowledge how poorly they're performing.

[DeltaV]

Why are we worrying about this?

Its like getting bent out of shape because you see your ex girlfriend on a date. Who cares about the ex and the loser guys she hangs out with now; our new girlfriend is much hotter.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Why are we worrying about this?

Its like getting bent out of shape because you see your ex girlfriend on a date. Who cares about the ex and the loser guys she hangs out with now; our new girlfriend is much hotter.

This specific ex-girlfriend (UConn) tried stealing your name (Big East), the money you earned (tournament credits) and house you live in (Madison Square Garden). Those new guys your ex is seeing (Conference USA call-ups - Memphis, Tulane, East Carolina, UCF, Houston, SMU) tried taking everything from you, fighting and believing that they all were entitled to it - despite the fact they never had possession of any of them). Now, the riches that these guys promised your ex (football money) are nothing more than fool's gold.

If it wasn't so funny, it'd be sad.

[stever20]

Stever your viewpoint on AAC is overly optimistic while your viewpoint on the Big East is usually overly pessimistic. Of course whatever AAC team could win X, Y, and Z games and jump however many spots. On the other hand, they could lose to RPI killers that make up the majority of the league. The UC schools are playing from behind right now.

You can throw out however many scenarios you want but fact of the matter is the AAC as of today has zero top 70 RPI teams. Zero. That is remarkable.

Frankly I expect at least one team to finish around 40 RPI and maybe a second flirting around 50. I think a couple teams will start to separate themselves. But the fact you don't see the issue with how poorly the AAC has played thus far is stunning.

I'm not saying the AAC is dead or they will never recover from the last couple years, but pretty much everyone but you can acknowledge how poorly they're performing.

1 thing even now, UConn has really only 5 games left with real RPI killers. Tulane, UCF, ECU, USF, and UCF. Cincy has 5 left as well- Tulane, USF, UCF, ECU, and ECU. But you know what-- Creighton, Marquette, and Seton Hall have 3 games left with RPI killers. So it's a bit worse, but really not that much worse.

Also RPI killers don't fill the AAC as much as you think. Right now- 4 of them over 128. That's it.

Also you are wrong about the AAC not having any top 70 teams. Tulsa IS #62.

And this week, the AAC RPI's are going to go up...
#128 Houston plays @ #89 Cincy
#83 Temple plays @ #117 Memphis
#82 UConn plays @ #62 Tulsa
#89 Cincy plays @ #83 Temple
#82 UConn plays @ #128 Houston

So Houston, Cincy, Temple, and UConn all play 2 top 125 teams. Someone has to win those games, and when they win those games, their RPI will jump similar to what happened with UConn this weekend. And the losers RPI isn't dropping.

Meanwhile look at teams around UConn and Cincy...
Siena plays this week Quinnipiac and Monmouth
Princeton is off
Akron plays #241 Central Michigan and #187 Toledo
Evansville plays #293 Drake and #145 Illinois State

And you say what if Cincy or UConn lose? Cincy or UConn lose to Houston, Houston gets in the top 100 pretty easily. UConn loses to Tulsa, Tulsa is top 50 probably. Cincy loses to Temple, Temple makes a big move up.

My point with the AAC is they were much worse last year. Last year, they were 80-49 and had a .6202 winning pct. .5212 RPI. They had 6 teams in the top 100, but 5 teams in the 200+ range. This year they are 86-47 for a .6466 winning pct. .5304 RPI. That's a pretty big difference there. They could wind up with only 4 teams in the 200+ range, and maybe 7 top 100 teams. And that's with a ton of close losses. Their KP numbers are much better as well.

[NovaBall]

Congrats on tulsa being #62. Awesome league.

[Jet915]

They are a two bid league MAX. If UCONN or CIncy cannot beat SMU, they are probably 1 bid...

[stever20]

They are a two bid league MAX. If UCONN or CIncy cannot beat SMU, they are probably 1 bid...

I think you are talking a lot of hope quite frankly. UConn and Cincy will both be in the top 50 even if they don't beat SMU. They both have top 80 schedules, and should finish at 22-9. UConn would be an absolute LOCK. They already have wins over Michigan and Texas. The win over Ohio St could easily become a top 50 win. You do that OOC and you are going to be in pretty easily. Cincy a bit trickier but even they have the win over GW OOC that will hold up.

Heck, if the title game was someone like a Temple or Memphis vs Cincy, and Temple/Memphis won, it could be a 3 bid conference easily. UConn has a pretty darn good resume and they'll be in. Cincy would be in almost certainly at 24-10. And Temple/Memphis would be auto in.

And the other thing is if someone like a Tulsa beats a SMU, then they get pretty interesting.