Creighton's path to a tourney bid?

[NovaBall]

I admit I have written Creighton off, and I thought the league's chances of sending a 5th or 6th team to the dance took a big hit today with seton hall losing to one of the non-contenders. Apparently many people disagree, and think Creighton has a good shot to dance.

One poster pointed out their roadmap as follows:

Shoot, I think Creighton has a VERY viable way to the tourney. They have 12 wins right now. 3-1 in conference play. They have 3 left with St John's and DePaul. That sweep gets them to 15. They need to get 5 wins from PC, Butler, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Nova, Xavier, Marquette, Butler, Marquette, PC, Xavier. That's 11 games. That seems quite possible. I know RPI forecast says 60, but I think KP would be favorable at that point. Might need a win in what would be a 3/6 or 4/5 to cement the spot though.



All right, so there is the road map.
1. Need to sweep the three easy games
2. Need to go 5-6 against the other teams.
3. Might also need an upset win at MSG

I would like to think that they could sweep the two lower teams. so how realistic is a 5-6 record the rest of the way?

Home games remaining from those 11 games (5)
Xavier
Providence
Butler
Marquette
Seton hall

I could see 3-2 happening from the 5 home games. 4-1 would be above expectations.

Road games remaining from those 11 games (6)
Nova
Xavier
Butler
Providence
Georgetown
Marquette

This is a pretty brutal 6 game set. Will be tough to win two of these games.


So it does not appear to be impossible, but it's going to be tough. Not a given they sweep the 3 games against the lower level teams, and 3-2 at home with 1-5 on the road over the other 11 games puts them in the conversation but in the wrong side of the discussion.

[stever20]

wait a second.... did the Ball just plagiarize a post that I did? What in the hell is going on here?????

on a serious note, the sweep of lower teams seems very possible.....

3-2 with the 5 home games- realistic- Marquette, Seton Hall- and then 1 of between X, PC, or Butler.....

2-4 with the 6 road games- realistic. Maybe Georgetown and Marquette? Butler or PC as a backup?

Also if they only got to 10-8, they would probably still get in with a win in the BET.

Another point- if they finished 11-7 like I was saying, they would not be a 6 seed. And quite possibly wouldn't be a 5 seed. So they would likely be wearing white in the game that they need to make the tourney in the BET. Heck, even at 10-8, they could be a 4 seed quite possibly.

[NovaBall]

It is definitely more possible than I thought. I still think it's a long shot.

I don't really care if it is Creighton or seton hall who grab the 6th bid, I just want one of the, to step up with marquette to land on the right side of the bubble.

That road stretch is going to be tough. I think 0-6 is more likely than 3-3 would be.

[TrueBlueJay]

Nm

[stever20]

Marquette has a tougher road to hoe than Creighton does. Marquette needs 8 more conference wins. plus a win over Stetson....

have 3 left with DePaul and St John's. That gets them to needing 5 more wins....

home games
Xavier
Butler
Providence
Creighton
Villanova
Georgetown
4-2 would seem awfully optimistic

away games
Villanova
Seton Hall
Xavier
Creighton
Butler
1-4 maybe?

Marquette is in more dire straits than Creighton is IMO.

Seton Hall look:
they need 7 wins....

have 3 with DePaul/St John's
so need 4 wins

home
Villanova
Marquette
Georgetown
Butler
Providence
Xavier
3-3 seems doable....

away
Providence
Xavier
Creighton
Georgetown
Butler

The thing with Seton Hall is I could see them easily going on a 5 game losing streak here- lost 2 and next 3 @ PC, Nova, and @ X. Then after win vs St John's, @ Creighton. So they could be 13-8, and needing to go 6-3 rest of the season.

I think it's very possible Seton Hall, Creighton, and Marquette beat the crap out of each other so much that none of the 3 get in.

[Westbrook#36]

wait a second.... did the Ball just plagiarize a post that I did? What in the hell is going on here?????

Didn't you read what he said?

I admit I have written Creighton off, and I thought the league's chances of sending a 5th or 6th team to the dance took a big hit today with seton hall losing to one of the non-contenders. Apparently many people disagree, and think Creighton has a good shot to dance.

One poster pointed out their roadmap as follows:

Shoot, I think Creighton has a VERY viable way to the tourney. They have 12 wins right now. 3-1 in conference play. They have 3 left with St John's and DePaul. That sweep gets them to 15. They need to get 5 wins from PC, Butler, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Nova, Xavier, Marquette, Butler, Marquette, PC, Xavier. That's 11 games. That seems quite possible. I know RPI forecast says 60, but I think KP would be favorable at that point. Might need a win in what would be a 3/6 or 4/5 to cement the spot though.

Plagiarizing doesn't give credit. Ball gave credit.

[NovaBall]

[quote By stever]

I think it's very possible Seton Hall, Creighton, and Marquette beat the crap out of each other so much that none of the 3 get in.[/quote]




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Exactly. Which is why yesterday's loss by seton hall was such a disaster for the conference. Seton hall was a legit tourney contender going into yesterday, but that was a must win game. Creighton is not likely to pull of what they need to do to make it. So it is just teams beating up on each other and hurting our tourney chances. That's reality. Yet if you speak about it and outside the circle of hand holding and love that some insist on over here you are accused of being a jerk or whatever. Then you get threatened with moderation (which it appears Stever is unfairly still on).

And this doesn't mean we should expect Creighton fans to root against their team. But they shouldn't have a meltdown when fans of the conference in general root against them as their team winning hurts the league (like depaul last year or seton hall in 2014 playing bid stealer/seed hurter). If creighton didn't lay an egg out of conference (as much with the initial scheduling as their performance) they wouldn't be simply a bid stealer and we would all be pulling for them more.


Anyway, here is to hoping one if these three teams step up to make it at least a five bid league.

[XU85]

[quote By stever]

I think it's very possible Seton Hall, Creighton, and Marquette beat the crap out of each other so much that none of the 3 get in.

------

Exactly. Which is why yesterday's loss by seton hall was such a disaster for the conference. Seton hall was a legit tourney contender going into yesterday, but that was a must win game. Creighton is not likely to pull of what they need to do to make it. So it is just teams beating up on each other and hurting our tourney chances. That's reality. Yet if you speak about it and outside the circle of hand holding and love that some insist on over here you are accused of being a jerk or whatever. Then you get threatened with moderation (which it appears Stever is unfairly still on).

And this doesn't mean we should expect Creighton fans to root against their team. But they shouldn't have a meltdown when fans of the conference in general root against them as their team winning hurts the league (like depaul last year or seton hall in 2014 playing bid stealer/seed hurter). If creighton didn't lay an egg out of conference (as much with the initial scheduling as their performance) they wouldn't be simply a bid stealer and we would all be pulling for them more.


Anyway, here is to hoping one if these three teams step up to make it at least a five bid league.[/quote]

Can we dial back the drama a little bit about what is and what is not a disaster for the league? I know some are into micromanaging bid scenarios, but to me this whole line of thinking is mid major mentality. Good for Creighton that they came away with a decisive road victory. Let the fun happen!

[NovaBall]

Rooting for results that give the league a better chance to put 5 or 6 teams into the dance instead of just 4 or 5 teams is not a "mid-major mentality". What type of logic is that?

And nobody is saying Creighton fans should root against their team, but they don't need to criticize anyone who does because of tourney implications. Their team didn't get it done out of conference, so don't be surprised if the teams that built stronger resumes out of conference receive more general support from fans of the league. Not hard to figure out.

That said, at least we can visualize a roadmap for Creighton to dance. I'm willing to see how it plays out. But that doesn't change the fact that the path to a 5th bid (or 6th depending in marquette) just became a lot more difficult after yesterday's upset.

[chuck1991]

I don't think they are good enough. I am happy with the 3-1 start in conference play, but I would still be surprised if they finish .500 in conference.