RPI Forecast

[stever20]

here's the projected RPI Forecast as we enter league play. Let's revisit at the end of the season to see how accurate it is for future reference...
Xavier 14-4 26-4 3.8 RPI Proj 33 Proj OOC SOS 20 proj SOS
Nova 14-4 25-6 9.5 RPI 73 OOC SOS 31 proj SOS
Butler 13-5 24-6 18.4 RPI 220 OOC SOS 59 proj SOS
Providence 9-9 21-10 33.9 RPI 92 OOC SOS 39 proj SOS
Seton Hall 9-9 19-11 59.8 RPI 242 OOC SOS 64 proj SOS
Creighton 9-9 18-13 90.7 RPI 293 OOC SOS 78 proj SOS
Georgetown 7-11 14-17 107.2 RPI 55 OOC SOS 17 proj SOS
Marquette 7-11 18-13 123.9 RPI 330 OOC SOS 101 proj SOS
DePaul 5-13 11-19 145.3 RPI 136 OOC SOS 77 proj SOS
St John's 2-16 8-22 211.9 RPI 119 OOC SOS 26 proj SOS

Ken Pom-
Nova 14-4
Xavier 14-4
Butler 12-6 (would take to 23-7- proj RPI then 23.4)
PC 10-8 (would take to 22-9- proj RPI then 27)
SH 9-9
Cre 8-10 (would take to 17-14- proj RPI then 107.5)
Geo 8-10 (would take to 15-16- proj RPI then 91.9)
Marq 7-11
Dep 5-13
SJ 3-15 (would take to 9-21- proj RPI then 197.3)

note- RPI forecast is only 89-91 so off by 1 game(due to percentages). KP is 90-90.

because I know it'll be interesting to see...
Marquette-
24-7 44.2
23-8 52.6
22-9 63
21-10 76.7
20-11 91.3
19-12 107.5
18-13 123.9
17-14 140.7
16-15 156.5

It'll be interesting to see just how accurate the projections wind up being. Keep in mind, this would just be regular season.

[stever20]

Looking at this now at the halfway mark of the season...
X 3.8 vs 6.7
Nova 9.5 vs 5.2
But 18.4 vs 57.7
PC 33.9 vs 34.0
SH 59.8 vs 55.7
Cre 90.7 vs 90.7
Geo 107.2 vs 70.0
Mar 123.9 vs 120.0
DeP 145.3 vs 175.0
SJ 211.9 vs 226.2
then(start of conference season) vs now

pretty scary how accurate it looks for PC, Creighton, Marquette. X, Nova, Seton Hall all pretty accurate as well. Butler the big negative one and Georgetown the biggest surprise so far.

SOS:
X 33 OOC SOS, 20 SOS vs 52 OOC SOS, 28 SOS -8
Nova 73 OOC SOS, 31 SOS vs 43 OOC SOS, 22 SOS +9
But 220 OOC SOS, 59 SOS vs 229 OOC SOS, 63 SOS -4
PC 92 OOC SOS, 39 SOS vs 187 OOC SOS, 58 SOS -19
SH 242 OOC SOS 64 SOS vs 264 OOC SOS, 72 SOS -8
Cre 293 OOC SOS, 78 SOS vs 288 OOC SOS, 82 SOS -4
Geo 55 OOC SOS, 17 SOS vs 50 OOC SOS, 16 SOS +1
Mar 330 OOC SOS 101 SOS vs 294 OOC SOS, 90 SOS +11
DeP 136 OOC SOS, 77 SOS vs 216 OOC SOS, 54 SOS +23
SJ 119 OOC SOS, 26 SOS vs 167 OOC SOS, 42 SOS -16
then vs now

so of the 10 teams- 7 are within 11 spots of overall SOS now compared to back before conference play started. and it makes sense- PC with the better record than expected, so playing fewer top teams. DePaul opposite as they are worse than what was expected then, so they're seeing tougher teams.

Overall I'd say at least right now, RPI forecast is looking fairly decent. Thoughts?

[stever20]

X 3.8 vs 7 -3.2
Nova 9.5 vs 4 +5.5
But 18.4 vs 56 -37.6
PC 33.9 vs 40 -6.1
SH 59.8 vs 19 +40.8
Cre 90.7 vs 101 -10.3
Geo 107.2 vs 106 +1.2
Mar 123.9 vs 111 +12.9
DeP 145.3 vs 199 -54.3
SJ 211.9 vs 245 -48.9
then(start of conference season) vs now

SOS-
X 33 OOC SOS, 20 SOS vs 88 OOC SOS 30 SOS- -55 OOC SOS, -10 SOS
Nova 73 OOC SOS, 31 SOS vs 15 OOC SOS, 14 SOS +58 OOC SOS, +17 SOS
But 220 OOC SOS, 59 SOS vs 242 OOC SOS, 72 SOS -22 OOC SOS, -13 SOS
PC 92 OOC SOS, 39 SOS vs 214 OOC SOS, 50 SOS -122 OOC SOS, -11 SOS
SH 242 OOC SOS 64 SOS vs 231 OOC SOS, 41 SOS -11 OOC SOS, -23 SOS
Cre 293 OOC SOS, 78 SOS vs 300 OOC SOS, 84 SOS -7 OOC SOS, -6 SOS
Geo 55 OOC SOS, 17 SOS vs 51 OOC SOS 23 SOS -4 OOC SOS -6 SOS
Mar 330 OOC SOS 101 SOS vs 321 OOC SOS 104 SOS +9 OOC SOS -3 SOS
DeP 136 OOC SOS, 77 SOS vs 224 OOC SOS, 64 SOS -88 OOC SOS -13 SOS
SJ 119 OOC SOS, 26 SOS vs 179 OOC SOS, 45 SOS -60 OOC SOS, -19 SOS
then vs now

Nova the only team that saw their SOS improve from what was projected- think a LARGE part of that was Temple being much better than what was projected back earlier...