Conference of the Americas......one-bid

[GoldenWarrior11]

The Big East had three top-25 teams upon the conclusion of last year's basketball season (Villanova, Butler, Georgetown) - not unlike the hypothetical that is being tossed around presently (if Memphis wins their bowl game). In that scenario, the football-side (AAC) - despite dramatically underperforming in bowl games - would conceivably still get positive press because they were to finish three teams in the top-25. Conversely, the Big East (last year) should get negative press because they didn't perform in postseason, but still had the same amount of top-25 finishers in basketball. Something doesn't add up with that logic.

I'd like to point out that the AAC just had one team finish in the AP top-25 last year (SMU), and none in the Coaches Poll.

[stever20]

Navy defeats Pittsburgh in the Military Bowl, making the American 1-5 in bowl games. That leaves Memphis (Auburn) and Houston (Florida State) as remaining AAC bowl games.

Kind of ironic that the only victory has come from it's lone football-only member.

And if Memphis beats Auburn, the conference likely winds up with 3 top 25 teams(regardless of what happens with Houston).

...and what exactly does top 25 finishes mean in college football... if you are out of the top 10 then it means nothing... no CFP, no NY6...

Houston is in the NY6. If they win, they finish top 10 quite possibly.

[Edrick]

It occurred to me this morning, that it isn't just the AAC looking at getting one bid if things don't go right; but, has anyone looked at the A10 lately? Outside of Dayton, it's not looking too good. St Joes and VCU are both on the outside looking in going into conference play, in a conference that doesn't boast much in the way of resume wins.

This is turning into the year of the high major, even the high mid major conferences are going to struggle getting multiple in.

[marquette]

It occurred to me this morning, that it isn't just the AAC looking at getting one bid if things don't go right; but, has anyone looked at the A10 lately? Outside of Dayton, it's not looking too good. St Joes and VCU are both on the outside looking in going into conference play, in a conference that doesn't boast much in the way of resume wins.

This is turning into the year of the high major, even the high mid major conferences are going to struggle getting multiple in.

Rough year for the tweener conferences. Luckily we don't have to worry about that.

[stever20]

right now if you look at the KP top 50.....
B12 7
ACC 8(and Syracuse is 53)
P12 8(and Arizona St is 51)
B10 7(and Ohio St is 52)
BE 5
SEC 5- lowest is Texas A&M at 26.

right there you have 40 teams- plus 3 at 51-53. There are 36 at large spots.

If you look at the projected RPI top 50...
B12 7
P12 6 (and Arizona St, Oregon St, and UCLA at 52-54)
ACC 6
BE 4
B10 6
SEC 5

even there you have 34 teams- 28 if you take all of their auto spots. Would leave 8 spots.

[notkirkcameron]

This is turning into the year of the high major, even the high mid major conferences are going to struggle getting multiple in.

Good news for Marquette, Georgetown, and Seton Hall.

68 berths
21 from one-bid leagues (MEAC, NEC, SWAC, A-Sun, WAC, America East, Patriot, Big Sky, Big South, Ivy, Southland, Ohio Valley, Big West, Colonial, C-USA, Summit, MAC, Southern, Sun Belt, Horizon, MAAC)

To be generous, let's say two each from the Atlantic 10 (Dayton and GW), West Coast (Gonzaga and St. Mary's), Mountain West (New Mexico and UNLV), and Missouri Valley (Wichita State and Northern Iowa).

That gets you to 29 bids, leaving 39 bids for the 6 Power Conferences to carve up. Currently, Bracket Matrix has this field filled out with:
8 ACC teams (UNC, Virginia, Duke, Miami, Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame)
8 Pac-12 teams (Arizona, Oregon, Utah, UCLA, USC, Colorado, Cal, Arizona State)
6 Big 12 teams (Texas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas, Oklahoma)
6 Big Ten teams (Michigan State, Purdue, Maryland, Iowa, Indiana, and Michigan)
5 SEC teams (Kentucky, Texas A&M, Vandy, South Carolina, Florida)
4 Big East teams (Xavier, Villanova, Butler, Providence)

Leaving only two for the American (Cincinnati and UConn).

The Pac-12's allotment appears the most vulnerable. Yes, there are 8 teams currently in, but 7 of them are seeded 7th or lower according to Bracket Matrix. 4 are seeded 10th or lower You'll have some dodgy resumes in that bunch. On the flip side, the Big East's 4 may be underrepresenting the league. Seton Hall is in Bracket Matrix's First Four Out. Marquette is in Lunardi's First Four Out. Georgetown is also knocking on the door despite their nonconference losses.

[stever20]

This is turning into the year of the high major, even the high mid major conferences are going to struggle getting multiple in.

Good news for Marquette, Georgetown, and Seton Hall.

not really. You look at the Ken Pom top 50, there's a lot of teams in the top 50 from just the P5 conferences.

[stever20]

MWC and MVC won't get 2 in. Wichita and Northern Iowa have a ton of losses. Same with New Mexico.

Seton Hall will get in I think pretty easily....

Georgetown unfortunately right now isn't knocking on any door. 5 OOC losses will do that to you- with a tough one left vs UConn. Georgetown needs 11 wins between BE play and UConn. Going to be extremely tough to do that.

[GumbyDamnit!]

so much stuff wrong here it's not funny...

1st off... the individual games do not matter. If everyone finishes 9-9, everyone would be adding in 160-160 to their opponents category, and everyone would be adding in 1280-1280 to their opponents opponents category. It wouldn't matter if Nova lost to St John's 2x and DePaul 2x, and beat X 2x and Butler 2x. It just doesn't matter. AAC is a smidge different because of the slight non-round robin. But still- pretty close.

Stever a flat RPI # is just one of many measures for the committee. If it was RPI alone then a computer would spit out all of the bids come March. But that doesn't happen. Other metrics like record vs RPI TOP 25 and Top 50 are also very important. Wins on the road and neutral courts vs. quality opponents are also important. So hypothetically if Team A beats the RPI #1 away, and loses to RPI #120, it is WAY better than that same team splitting two games with the RPI #60. The #120 loss is not a "bad" loss in the committee's eyes but beating the top RPI team on their home floor would be HUGE in that selection room.

So again, you are wrong. Individual games absolutely matter.

as far as Marquette, Seton Hall. Seton Hall would be 19-11 with a 59.2 RPI. They I think would be in, but may need a win in the BET.
Now with Marquette. You are saying they beat Nova, Butler, and X at least once each. I'll assume a split in the head to head.... So right there, both teams are 4-6. That means going 5-3 against the other 4 teams. Could get into bad loss category pretty easily.

I will take this as a concession. The fact that you say that they "could" get into a bad loss category means nothing. They also "could" not.

Marquette's problem is their overall SOS. It's over 100. OOC SOS in the 335 range. RPI at 9-9 would be 93. Sorry- but that profile doesn't get teams in the tourney. Not at all. Also, if Butler has lost to both Seton Hall and Marquette, they would need to go 9-5 to finish in the top 25 against the rest of the conference- including games with Nova and PC. PC would need to go 8-6 to finish in the top 25. No guarantee either of those would happen. So you don't know that they would have 3 RPI top 25 wins at the end of the season at all whatsoever. So would not say it's likely that Marquette would be in at all with a 9-9 record. I don't think even Marquette folks would say that quite frankly. Individual teams make the tourney not conference. You can't just say a 9-9 Big East team is automatic in the tourney. No way no how. If Marquette had actually scheduled not even great but just decent, they would probably be in quite frankly.

The level at which you are off base with this whole OOC SOS is mind boggling to me. You seem like a somewhat intelligent guy so why can't you understand that OOC SOS means nothing in a conference like the BE. Marq has at least 8 games left on their schedules vs the RPI top 25. 8. Teams in lesser conferences need a healthy OOC because they don't get the same opportunities for quality wins. X was .500 in conf last year but they had a handful of great conference wins vs teams that were all in the Top 50- RPI (SJU, Prov, G'town, Butler). They weren't anywhere near the bubble.

Again, the committee looks at more than just flat RPI. A 20 win team out of one of the top conferences with 4 scalps vs top 25 RPI teams is a guaranteed bid. No ifs, ands or buts. Why? Because they are going to be matched up with the Tulsa's and the Cincy's, who may have 1 Top 25 win on their resumes come March. It's one of the reasons Temple and Tulsa were left out last year. Temple had one good win and Tulsa had none. If Marq has 4, they are golden. Again this is an example of the importance of a strong conference. The rising tide raises all boats. And in this case provides a team like Marq, who didn't have the best OOC SOS the chance to prove themselves against the best teams in the country during conference play. If they can get to 9 wins against that level of competition, they deserve a bid. I believe the committee will agree with me.

What I find hilarious about you, though, is if it is a debate about Big East teams like G'town having a healthy RPI but poor W-L record you talk about how teams need to get to 20 wins to get bids. And then for Marq you move the goalposts back the other way. Which is it so I can know for future discussions?

Gumby, the gap was LARGER last season. MUCH larger. Maybe not in RPI, but definitely in Ken Pom- which is where things are going more and more. In KP- the gap is only .1060. Last year that gap was a whopping .2262. Advanced metrics meaning more and more and more.

You are again wrong. This is a discussion about the relative strength of two conferences. The RPI is the defacto standard metric for college basketball. Here is yet another example of you trying desperately to use any data points you can, move the goalposts as quickly as possible all in an effort to cast a shadow on what is really going on, and refusing to admit to what we all know to be true. Stop this. You are embarrassing yourself.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/conference/rpi/2015-16

Year / Conf / RPI / Difference

2013-14
BE - .5645
AAC - .5449
Gap - .0196

2014-15
BE - .5690
AAC - .5248
Gap - .0442

2015-16
BE - .5777
AAC - .5188
Gap - .0589

See a pattern? It's called a widening gap. And how it is widening is quite interesting, no? The BE getting stronger and stronger and the American consistently dropping

Anything else or are we about done here?

[stever20]

There is absolutely NO guarantee at all whatsoever that Butler or Providence will be in the final RPI top 25. Things are NOT measured as of game time, it's the ratings end of the season. In fact right now, Providence is projected to finish with a 33 RPI. So right now, Marquette is projected to have 7 games against the RPI top 25. 10 against the projected RPI top 50. So if PC is out of the top 25, they would have 3 top 25 wins in X, Nova, and Butler(who themselves could get close to being out of the top 25). Also would say for PC and Butler, both are supposed to sweep Marquette. So a loss would drop their projected record, and thus their RPI. Looking at Butler would drop them down to 23.1 and PC down to 41.9(and a sub .500 conference record). Bottom line for Marquette, to have any shot at a bid at 9-9, they would have to get 3-4 top 25 wins. Pretty big ask. Outside of that, they would need to get 10 or quite possibly 11 wins. Definitely can not say that if they just finish 9-9 they would automatically be in. It would have to be a very specific 9 wins...

You bring up X from last year...

They had a good OOC season. #5 OOC SOS, and went 10-3 against that.
They also went 2-1 in the BET.

Those 2 facts played a HUGE factor in their placement.

The goalposts move for teams based on what their schedule is. It's a sliding scale. First off, you have to have a minimum record. 15 loss teams DON'T make the tourney. PERIOD. Never have. If you have a putrid schedule like what Marquette has, you can't have any flaws. Also, Marquette won't just be matched up with Tulsa or Cincy. They'll be matched up with a team like a Syracuse.

here is what the projected RPI is supposed to be
BE- .5660
AAC- .5305
difference .0355

So that would be smaller than .0442 from last year. BE would be down by .003 and AAC would be up by .0057 from last year. Pretty big difference.

Also, a loss to #120 IS considered a bad loss. Any loss outside the top 100 is.