Conference of the Americas......one-bid

[stever20]

Stever, agree UCONN is a great program. It's a shame they have to be part of that terrible conference. They deserve better and will get better when they drop their dillusions of being a major FB program and return to where they would thrive: the BE.

BTW, not sure if you noticed but the BE is a pretty damned good conference, isn't it?

recruiting wise they've thrived. It's been the game performances that have been the problem lately. look this year. 1-3 in games decided by 10 points or less. Last year, they were 9-11 in those games. last 3 years they are only 29-25 vs winning teams. Makes you wonder just how good of a game coach Ollie is right now.

My thought on the BE- this year is by far the best the conference has been. Why? Because the top teams are by a MILE better than they've showed in the last 3 years. As I've said all along, that's what matters. Not how good your 8th or 9th place team is. That's the difference IMO. 2 years ago, I said I'd rather have the conference config of what the AAC finished compared to what the Big East had with a lot more depth- but not as many top teams. I don't give a rip what the RPI/Ken Pom say.

[GoldenWarrior11]

The AAC is a textbook case of little brother syndrome. When one person feels they have a rivalry with another far superior person. The superior person usually doesn't know about it or feel that the little brother is any kind of a threat. The little brother usually puts forth maximum effort in meaningless situations in order to get the feeling of a win over his rival.

The fact that the AAC has lost bowl games to the MAC, C-USA, Mountain West and ACC (all conferences their fans have proclaimed as being better than) should be a humbling experience for them. Unfortunately, as history has shown, it's just another example of an extenuating circumstance for why the American should still be considered a power conference. "We played their conference's BEST team", "This was their SUPER BOWL", "We played one of the country's HOTTEST teams", "We had COUNTLESS injuries", "Our coach doesn't even play to WIN bowl games". The excuses are endless. When an AAC school wins a big bowl game, like UCF did in 2013 over Baylor in the Fiesta Bowl, it is an example of the American being a power conference by beating a power team in a bowl game. However, when the American goes 0-5 in bowl games, it should not be reflective of the conference because bowl games don't matter and are not reflective of the conference as a whole. Seems legit...

AAC fans manage to troll, upset and/or irritate fans from C-USA, MWC, MAC, A-10, Big East, and ACC. That is a remarkable accomplishment - as I can't think of any other conference that manages to rub so many difference fan bases the wrong way. It must be the way the pump their chests every time they win a game by proclaiming how much better they are than everyone else, yet disregard shortcomings against those same schools for being irrelevant and unimportant.

A little brother, indeed.

[stever20]

One thing Gumby- I think in some ways things have kind of reversed.....

The AAC has gotten somewhat more parity. Teams 6-9 are a lot closer now to teams 3-5.

The Big East like I said- has gotten more top heavy. Teams 6-9 are much further away from teams 1-4 than they were the last 2 years. And that's a great thing IMO. Your perception as a conference is built on teams 1-4. Not on teams 5-10.

[GumbyDamnit!]

One thing Gumby- I think in some ways things have kind of reversed.....

The AAC has gotten somewhat more parity. Teams 6-9 are a lot closer now to teams 3-5.

The Big East like I said- has gotten more top heavy. Teams 6-9 are much further away from teams 1-4 than they were the last 2 years. And that's a great thing IMO. Your perception as a conference is built on teams 1-4. Not on teams 5-10.

You can look at the data and use it any way you want to help you get to sleep at night. The gap between the top and the bottom in the AAC has narrowed as much because teams at the top have dropped down. Memphis 100+ RPI, UCONN 100+, Temple 100+. Heck there is no eligible team better than 70 RPI in that conference. They also still have multiple teams with an RPI well over 200. Not good. Conversely the BE, like last year, have multiple teams in the RPI Top 50 (5), 25 (4) and 10 (2).

So again here's the problem with a conference like the AAC. Unless SMU loses a bunch of games to Cincy, Tulsa and UCONN (which would cause their own RPI to tumble), that league will be a one or maybe two bid league barring a major upset in their conf tourney. You can't move up the RPI latter beating a bunch of 150+ teams. Looking at the numbers, Cincy and UCONN can be in real trouble if they don't beat SMU at least once, stay away from a bad loss (their schedule is littered with tons of bad loss type teams), and finish with a stellar conf record.

In the BE nothing is settled. Anything can still happen. Who's to say a team like SHU or a Creighton, Marq or Gtown can't surprise and finish in the top 4? Lots of games to be played. Lots of opportunities to get quality wins. In fact there is not one team, should they finish 11-7 in the league, that would be let out of the tourney, and most would make it at 9-9. A .500 record in the AAC gets you a RPI ranking in the 170's and a CBI snub. So justify all you want about how the BE and AAC are similar in your mind. There are HUGE advantages for all teams when your conference has balance. And the gap between the two conferences is widening with each passing year; an inconvenient truth you and other AAC fans are reluctant to accept.

[stever20]

here's rpi projected for teams if they go 9-9.....
Big East:
Xavier 21-9 22.7
Villanova 20-11 36.1(giving them the other 2 OOC wins)
Butler 20-10 48.3
Providence 21-10 33.4
Seton Hall 19-11 59.2
Creighton 18-13 92.4
Georgetown 17-14 65.7 or 16-15 78.9
Marquette 20-11 93.3
DePaul 15-15 84.9
St John's 15-15 isn't even on the RPI projected list- not in the 10000 sims that they have. 14-16 is 113.5 so probably right around 100....

So right now, only 4 teams would be locks at 9-9 to make the tourney. Seton Hall would be right on the bubble, would need a win in the BET to make it for sure.

And DePaul/St John's won't make the tourney even if they go 11-7.

now for the conference you slam- the AAC.... lets see what their RPI would look like at 9-9....
SMU 21-9 43.6
Cincy 19-12 70.3
UConn 19-12 84.8 18-13 100.8 17-14 118.4(they have 2 tough OOC games left with Texas and Georgetown)
Tulsa 17-13 92.9
Memphis 19-12 107.8 or 18-13 124(they have tough OOC game left with South Carolina)
Houston 19-11 124.9
Temple 15-15 131.9
East Carolina 17-14 132.7
UCF 16-13 150.1 or 15-14 167.9(they have tough OOC game left with GW)
Tulane 16-15 152.9
USF 12-19 177

So in the AAC, only UCF and USF are in the 170's. most are still not good of course- but not as bad as you want to paint it out to be....

And sorry, but perception wise, it's MUCH better to be top heavy like what the Big East is right now. Numbers wise, the Big East isn't as good this year as it was last year. The RPI is projected to be #4. Ken Pom #5. But why is perception so much better this year? Because the top teams are better. You can like balance all you want, but the reason why the perception of the Big East is so good this year is because there's 4 teams that feel like they have separated.

[stever20]

also, would say the gap hasn't widened this year.... Did you forget last year? AAC was #10 behind A10, MVC, and WCC in Ken Pom This year #7. Big East last year #3, this year #5.

In RPI- last year BE #2, AAC #8. This year BE #3 AAC #9(and we're not done yet).

The only reason why you could say the gap has widened is the top teams.

[Westbrook#36]

There is not one single team in the AAC that can afford to go 9-9 in conference and be in the mix for an at-large bid, NONE, NADA, ZIP. stever HLOH's Don Quixote, tilting at the windmill that the BE has left the AAC in the rear view mirror.

[Hoya Hoya Hoya]

Stever I don't throw shade like a lot of other people do but it's LOL funny to suggest that any team that goes 9-9 in the AAC will get an at large bid.

[FormulaX]

also, would say the gap hasn't widened this year.... Did you forget last year? AAC was #10 behind A10, MVC, and WCC in Ken Pom This year #7. Big East last year #3, this year #5.

In RPI- last year BE #2, AAC #8. This year BE #3 AAC #9(and we're not done yet).

The only reason why you could say the gap has widened is the top teams.

Really? Please, show me the web pages on your beloved network espn. That is ranting about the AAC? If you need numbers? Then you could add up positive comments about the AAC and subtaract them from positive comments about the Big East.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever, your numbers are worthless b/c there is no way of knowing who beats who. Cincy loses 3 games to UCF, USF and Tulane, do not beat SMU, they are not getting to 70, and they are not getting in the tourney. Period. Not being able to see on paper the details of those 18 games, and how the other teams they played fare over the entire schedule, leaves to only conjecture. So stop presenting your numbers as facts. There is little likelihood that the Stever2000 NCAA Basketball Analyzer will be accurate when it is all said and done.

I said "most" teams who finish 9-9 in the BE would make the tourney. Here are the definitive as of today:
X
Nova
Butler
PC
All of these team are in if they finish 9-9 in the league.

Now let's take both Marquette and SHU at 9-9. Let's also assume that both teams beat Nova, Butler and X at least once. So they enter the BET with 19 and 20 wins and HUGE wins vs. expected Top 25 RPI teams. Are you honestly going to bet against a team with 20 wins and 3 Top 25 RPI wins (and potentially a handful of other Top 50 wins)?

That makes 6 BE teams able to make the tourney with a 9-9 record. 6/10 = most. And there are exactly 0 AAC teams that could make the tourney with 9-9 conf records.

Stop this charade Stever. You're making yourself look foolish.