NCAA tourney hopes

[NovaBall]

out of conference = 13 out of 31 games
in conference = 18 out of 31 games,
conference tournament = 1 - 3 more games

You cannot shoot yourself in the foot out of conference, but of course the in conference games are what matter most.

Fortunately in the BIG EAST, the quality of the in conference games are very high. One of the benefits of playing in a top 3 RPI conference annually. Now if a team is in the Americans Conference or the Atlantic 10, where there is a whole bunch of RPI poison and good win opportunities are few and far between, then added weight must be placed on the OOC portion of the schedule. But for BIG EAST teams, no need to overblow OOC performance.

Again, not saying OOC doesn't matter. You have to hold serve, and it is also a chance to distinguish yourself the way Xavier has to build a cushion. But the important games start in a couple of weeks.

[stever20]

out of conference = 13 out of 31 games
in conference = 18 out of 31 games,
conference tournament = 1 - 3 more games

You cannot shoot yourself in the foot out of conference, but of course the in conference games are what matter most.

Fortunately in the BIG EAST, the quality of the in conference games are very high. One of the benefits of playing in a top 3 RPI conference annually. Now if a team is in the Americans Conference or the Atlantic 10, where there is a whole bunch of RPI poison and good win opportunities are few and far between, then added weight must be placed on the OOC portion of the schedule. But for BIG EAST teams, no need to overblow OOC performance.

Again, not saying OOC doesn't matter. You have to hold serve, and it is also a chance to distinguish yourself the way Xavier has to build a cushion. But the important games start in a couple of weeks.

you might not believe this, but I agree with you almost totally. You cannot shoot yourself in the foot out of conference, but of course the in conference games are what matter most.

my point is that-
Georgetown shot themselves in the foot by losing 4 games in the OOC play. They haven't held serve.
Marquette, Creighton, and Seton Hall have shot themselves in the foot by scheduling so awful OOC.

The other thing wouldn't say is that the Big East is a top 3 RPI conference annually. This year right now projected to be #4- due to the SOS being pretty low across the conference(worst of all the power conferences).

[marquette]

No, you're missing the point. Sure, they get regular reports with the numbers, but that is only a minor part of their analysis, and they know things like Kenpom are heavily weighted on preseason expectations early in the season. They actually know how good ASU was because they have Committee members who watch them play. When discussions of teams' wins and losses come up, these members can give specifics on the opponents with no need for numbers.

Arizona St had lost to Sacramento St just a few weeks before.

And the thing is, if Arizona St were to go 3-15 in Pac 12 play(totally not expecting that but just for discussions sake)-the game wouldn't be viewed as a good win at all. Just like the LSU win if LSU doesn't wake up won't help Marquette out at all whatsoever.

Sorry- but Marquette absolutely needs for Arizona St to hold up. And they need LSU to get their head out of their you know what.

You ever notice how often you say "sorry" in your posts?

[murphy]

out of conference = 13 out of 31 games
in conference = 18 out of 31 games,
conference tournament = 1 - 3 more games

You cannot shoot yourself in the foot out of conference, but of course the in conference games are what matter most.

Fortunately in the BIG EAST, the quality of the in conference games are very high. One of the benefits of playing in a top 3 RPI conference annually. Now if a team is in the Americans Conference or the Atlantic 10, where there is a whole bunch of RPI poison and good win opportunities are few and far between, then added weight must be placed on the OOC portion of the schedule. But for BIG EAST teams, no need to overblow OOC performance.

Again, not saying OOC doesn't matter. You have to hold serve, and it is also a chance to distinguish yourself the way Xavier has to build a cushion. But the important games start in a couple of weeks.

-----------
The conf schedule is a zero sum proposition. The 10 rpis that start the conf schedule determine what the total "potential"may be for final rpi, all that the conf games accomplish is distribute/proportion that OOC RPI sum over the 10 teams. if you have a top 5 OOC conf rpi and all 10 teams go let say 9-9 in conf, you will not see many tourney invites.

[Westbrook#36]

Arizona St had lost to Sacramento St just a few weeks before.

And the thing is, if Arizona St were to go 3-15 in Pac 12 play(totally not expecting that but just for discussions sake)-the game wouldn't be viewed as a good win at all. Just like the LSU win if LSU doesn't wake up won't help Marquette out at all whatsoever.

Sorry- but Marquette absolutely needs for Arizona St to hold up. And they need LSU to get their head out of their you know what.

You ever notice how often you say "sorry" in your posts?

I don't think he even notices at this point, it's so ingrained into his posting style. stever at his disingenuous best.

[stever20]

out of conference = 13 out of 31 games
in conference = 18 out of 31 games,
conference tournament = 1 - 3 more games

You cannot shoot yourself in the foot out of conference, but of course the in conference games are what matter most.

Fortunately in the BIG EAST, the quality of the in conference games are very high. One of the benefits of playing in a top 3 RPI conference annually. Now if a team is in the Americans Conference or the Atlantic 10, where there is a whole bunch of RPI poison and good win opportunities are few and far between, then added weight must be placed on the OOC portion of the schedule. But for BIG EAST teams, no need to overblow OOC performance.

Again, not saying OOC doesn't matter. You have to hold serve, and it is also a chance to distinguish yourself the way Xavier has to build a cushion. But the important games start in a couple of weeks.

-----------
The conf schedule is a zero sum proposition. The 10 rpis that start the conf schedule determine what the total "potential"may be for final rpi, all that the conf games accomplish is distribute/proportion that OOC RPI sum over the 10 teams. if you have a top 5 OOC conf rpi and all 10 teams go let say 9-9 in conf, you will not see many tourney invites.

not necessarily. lets take what you are saying- and apply it to the current Big East....
Xavier-21-9 would give them RPI of 23.5. Lock.
Villanova 20-11(losing to Virginia) would give them a RPI of 34.5. Lock
Butler- 19-11(losing to Purdue) would give them a RPI of 58.1. bubble
PC- 21-10 would give them a RPI of 34.9. Lock.
Seton Hall 18-12 would give them a RPI of 74.7. out
Georgetown- 17-14(loss to UConn) gives them RPI of 67.5. out. 18-13(win over UConn) gives them RPI of 55.7. In.
Creighton- 18-13(loss to Oklahoma gives them RPI of 85.9. out.
Marquette- 20-11 gives them RPI of 90.3. out
DePaul- 15-15 gives them RPI of 81.7. out
St John's- 16-13(loss to S Carolina) gives them RPI of 79.6. out

so 3 locks. Georgetown in with win over UConn. Butler bubble. But then you have the conference tournament. Just looking at the RPI's- a team or two could play themselves in the tournament quite frankly.

[MUWarrior1090]

I don't think what Arizona State, Wisconsin or LSU do the rest of the way really will have that big of an effect on Marquette's tournament hopes. It would be great to get a top 50 win or two, but it doesn't really matter at this point. We all know the non-conference schedule was bad. 9-9 in conference isn't going to get Marquette in. 10-8 and we'll be a bubble team (and sneak in, IMO), 11-7 and we're in. That's what it will take. I think it's attainable.

[stever20]

I don't think what Arizona State, Wisconsin or LSU do the rest of the way really will have that big of an effect on Marquette's tournament hopes. It would be great to get a top 50 win or two, but it doesn't really matter at this point. We all know the non-conference schedule was bad. 9-9 in conference isn't going to get Marquette in. 10-8 and we'll be a bubble team (and sneak in, IMO), 11-7 and we're in. That's what it will take. I think it's attainable.

I think if you're 10-8, what Arizona St, Wisconsin, or LSU do could make a HUGE difference. 1-2 turn out to be top 50- that easily could make the difference.

I think your records are VERY realistic.

[stever20]

No, you're missing the point. Sure, they get regular reports with the numbers, but that is only a minor part of their analysis, and they know things like Kenpom are heavily weighted on preseason expectations early in the season. They actually know how good ASU was because they have Committee members who watch them play. When discussions of teams' wins and losses come up, these members can give specifics on the opponents with no need for numbers.

Arizona St had lost to Sacramento St just a few weeks before.

And the thing is, if Arizona St were to go 3-15 in Pac 12 play(totally not expecting that but just for discussions sake)-the game wouldn't be viewed as a good win at all. Just like the LSU win if LSU doesn't wake up won't help Marquette out at all whatsoever.

Sorry- but Marquette absolutely needs for Arizona St to hold up. And they need LSU to get their head out of their you know what.

You ever notice how often you say "sorry" in your posts?

not really...

I apologize.

[marquette]

You ever notice how often you say "sorry" in your posts?

not really...

I apologize.

Nothing serious, just a stylistic note. I like comma splices myself.