NCAA tourney hopes

[NovaBall]

Stever being stever.....

[NovaBall]

Last yr at this point in the season stever had projected 3 or 4 bids for the conference. He will probably lie about it now, but just remember that's the type of troll we are dealing with.

It was pretty much the same argument he is making now.


Remember when nova lost to Alabama, Columbia by a million, and then la sale, and then followed that up with a loss to temple in the 2013 season? Then they got swept by providence and lost to seton hall in conference play. I'm sure stever definitely had nova comfortably making the dance as a 9 seed that yr.

[stever20]

Last yr at this point in the season stever had projected 3 or 4 bids for the conference. He will probably lie about it now, but just remember that's the type of troll we are dealing with.

It was pretty much the same argument he is making now.


Remember when nova lost to Alabama, Columbia by a million, and then la sale, and then followed that up with a loss to temple in the 2013 season? Then they got swept by providence and lost to seton hall in conference play. I'm sure stever definitely had nova comfortably making the dance as a 9 seed that yr.

Except La Salle and Temple were NCAA tourney teams.... Hardly bad losses.

Also, let's look at the 6 that made the tourney last year.... their OOC SOS:
Villanova 70
Providence 18
Georgetown 7
Xavier 44
Butler 116
St John's 85

Sorry, but it's reasonable to say if St John's had Marquette's OOC schedule last year, they would have missed the tourney last year.

And the fact is, the Nova schedule shreds what Marquette has this year. IUPUI, Jackson St, Grambling St, Maine, San Jose St, Chicago St, Presbyterian, and Stetson. That's 8 of the 13 OOC games for Marquette.

[Westbrook#36]

Except La Salle and Temple were NCAA tourney teams.... Hardly bad losses.

Also, let's look at the 6 that made the tourney last year.... their OOC SOS:
Villanova 70
Providence 18
Georgetown 7
Xavier 44
Butler 116
St John's 85

Sorry, but it's reasonable to say if St John's had Marquette's OOC schedule last year, they would have missed the tourney last year.

And the fact is, the Nova schedule shreds what Marquette has this year. IUPUI, Jackson St, Grambling St, Maine, San Jose St, Chicago St, Presbyterian, and Stetson. That's 8 of the 13 OOC games for Marquette.

Why do you want to keep excluding in conference strength of schedule? Maybe because it harms your point of view? Marquette has opportunity to get 6 top 25 projected rpi wins, 8 top 50 projected rpi wins in conference, and 12 projected rpi top 100 wins in conference. If they go 9-9 in conference with the right number of good wins they are VERY MUCH in the discussion for an at large bid. That's not even including any possible wins at MSG in March.

No one is saying or defending Marquette's crap ooc. Are you referring to Nova's 12-13 ooc schedule again or are you comparing this year's Nova schedule to Marquette's? Of course this year's Nova's ooc kills Marqutte's's it's ranked #14(so much for you crapping on it in other threads, but that's another story). And no way in the world could anyone call our 12-13 ooc schedule good, again it was #167 with games against District of Columbia, Marshall, Columbia, Delaware, Monmouth, Penn, and NJIT. At best it could be called a median schedule, but if you just want to talk power(top 6) conference ooc schedule's, I'd bet the Nova's that year was towards the bottom of that particular list.

For the record I'm not claiming or suggesting we're getting 6 invites, that only happens if pretty much everything falls into place. But I do firmly believe we get 5 bids comfortably. One of Georgetown, Marquette, or Seton Hall will emerge out of the pack to claim a bid.

[billyjack]

Is RPI Forecast usually accurate in looking at their December vs March predictions? Can stever look this up somehow for us?

RPI Forecast uses Jeff Sagarin's ratings, which is fine. Sagarin though... doesn't he use Margin of Victory? So after 8 games he is very high on Pitt and Louisville, who have beaten a bunch of nobodies by 40 points. He is very low on Providence, which is trying to work in their freshmen, and which decided to beat Hartford by 23 (sitting Dunn for long stretches) rather than 45 like Pitino would have. The Friars will tend to beat cupcakes by 15-ish. Not sure if Sagarin works in injury factors such as Dunn, Fazekas and a half game of no-Bentil vs Bryant in a 7 point win. I suppose the argument is that he runs 10,000 simulations and it should all even out, but after only 8 games he again is ridiculously high on Pittsburgh.

The point being, which I think some are mentioning here, is that it is still too early to bank on his numbers with such certainty.

A couple of other points.
At this point, according to RPI Forecast, Marquette's 2 losses are vs #21 Iowa and #56 Belmont. They'll probably end the OOC season with no losses outside the Top-56. In addition, they have a win vs #46 Arizona State. They also have a win over #96 Wisconsin. Also, RPI Forecast has Northwestern pegged at #86 and at 10-8 in the Big Ten. I cannot find 10 wins in the Big Ten by Northwestern, since they're horrible... at full strength they beat Columbia by 3 and Fairfield by 7... the forecast has N'western sweeping Ohio State and Minnesota, and beating Wisconsin which is very unlikely even with Bo Ryan is gone. They've also underrated Illinois, which has gotten guys back from injury. Anyway, these minor paper cut changes when added up can lead to big shifts in the forecast.

So, can we find the past history of RPI Forecast based on typical December predictions?

[GumbyDamnit!]

Stever, why do you continue to harp on OOC SOS when it is just a part of the overall SOS that is scrutinized by the committee? G'town has lost @ MD and vs. Duke (n). Those won't hurt them--could have only helped. So G'town replacing those two games with cupcakes just to get to 20 wins instead of 18, is fruitless.

Last year Xavier's best OOC win came against RPI # 46 Cincy. So OOC they had exactly 1 OOC win vs. the Top 50 RPI AND they posted losses against RPI #'s 92, 149, & 133.

Now I contend that since the BE is a power conference it allows teams opportunities to get quality wins IN conference so they can build their resumes. Case in point, Xavier had the following Top 50 wins IN conference last year: 20 (2x), 22 (3x), 33. So 6 wins in conference vs. top 50 (and 5 vs. the top 25 RPI) and 1 win OOC vs top 50. Which do you think was more critical for X to get in and get a 6 seed: OOC or in conference? Secondly remind me again what their IN conference regular season record was again? I'll answer for you: 9-9.

That my friend is why having a conference loaded with quality teams is so important.

[MUBoxer]

Is RPI Forecast usually accurate in looking at their December vs March predictions? Can stever look this up somehow for us?

RPI Forecast uses Jeff Sagarin's ratings, which is fine. Sagarin though... doesn't he use Margin of Victory? So after 8 games he is very high on Pitt and Louisville, who have beaten a bunch of nobodies by 40 points. He is very low on Providence, which is trying to work in their freshmen, and which decided to beat Hartford by 23 (sitting Dunn for long stretches) rather than 45 like Pitino would have. The Friars will tend to beat cupcakes by 15-ish. Not sure if Sagarin works in injury factors such as Dunn, Fazekas and a half game of no-Bentil vs Bryant in a 7 point win. I suppose the argument is that he runs 10,000 simulations and it should all even out, but after only 8 games he again is ridiculously high on Pittsburgh.

The point being, which I think some are mentioning here, is that it is still too early to bank on his numbers with such certainty.

A couple of other points.
At this point, according to RPI Forecast, Marquette's 2 losses are vs #21 Iowa and #56 Belmont. They'll probably end the OOC season with no losses outside the Top-56. In addition, they have a win vs #46 Arizona State. They also have a win over #96 Wisconsin. Also, RPI Forecast has Northwestern pegged at #86 and at 10-8 in the Big Ten. I cannot find 10 wins in the Big Ten by Northwestern, since they're horrible... at full strength they beat Columbia by 3 and Fairfield by 7... the forecast has N'western sweeping Ohio State and Minnesota, and beating Wisconsin which is very unlikely even with Bo Ryan is gone. They've also underrated Illinois, which has gotten guys back from injury. Anyway, these minor paper cut changes when added up can lead to big shifts in the forecast.

So, can we find the past history of RPI Forecast based on typical December predictions?

ASU's RPI is up to #26 via CBS.

[stever20]

Except La Salle and Temple were NCAA tourney teams.... Hardly bad losses.

Also, let's look at the 6 that made the tourney last year.... their OOC SOS:
Villanova 70
Providence 18
Georgetown 7
Xavier 44
Butler 116
St John's 85

Sorry, but it's reasonable to say if St John's had Marquette's OOC schedule last year, they would have missed the tourney last year.

And the fact is, the Nova schedule shreds what Marquette has this year. IUPUI, Jackson St, Grambling St, Maine, San Jose St, Chicago St, Presbyterian, and Stetson. That's 8 of the 13 OOC games for Marquette.

Why do you want to keep excluding in conference strength of schedule? Maybe because it harms your point of view? Marquette has opportunity to get 6 top 25 projected rpi wins, 8 top 50 projected rpi wins in conference, and 12 projected rpi top 100 wins in conference. If they go 9-9 in conference with the right number of good wins they are VERY MUCH in the discussion for an at large bid. That's not even including any possible wins at MSG in March.

No one is saying or defending Marquette's crap ooc. Are you referring to Nova's 12-13 ooc schedule again or are you comparing this year's Nova schedule to Marquette's? Of course this year's Nova's ooc kills Marqutte's's it's ranked #14(so much for you crapping on it in other threads, but that's another story). And no way in the world could anyone call our 12-13 ooc schedule good, again it was #167 with games against District of Columbia, Marshall, Columbia, Delaware, Monmouth, Penn, and NJIT. At best it could be called a median schedule, but if you just want to talk power(top 6) conference ooc schedule's, I'd bet the Nova's that year was towards the bottom of that particular list.

For the record I'm not claiming or suggesting we're getting 6 invites, that only happens if pretty much everything falls into place. But I do firmly believe we get 5 bids comfortably. One of Georgetown, Marquette, or Seton Hall will emerge out of the pack to claim a bid.

The thing with the bad OOC schedule is that it's 13/31 of the games. That's a lot.
Looking at Marquette:
IUPUI projected 8-22
Jackson St projected 16-13
Grambling projected 6-21(and that's generous)
Maine projected 6-23
San Jose St 5-22
Chicago St 4-24
Presbyterian 7-19
Stetson 8-19
all of those would be in the 50% pot for Marquette.

I'm comparing Nova 12-13 to Marquette this year. I think you would be surprised at what level the OOC schedule That 166 is.
This year DePaul is 152 projected OOC SOS.....
BE- has 4 teams worse
B12 has 3 teams worse than 166 (and a 4th at 158)
P12 has 4 teams worse
SEC has 3 teams worse than 166 (and a 4th at 160)
B10 has 7 teams worse
ACC has 7 teams worse
so 166 is better than 28 of the 74 power teams. about the 37% level.. Only TCU, Clemson and Northwestern are in the 300's this year- with only Clemson and Northwestern really near Marquette.

The other point is that the overall SOS for Nova that year was really good #20. Part of that is their 4 teams that they played 2x were Syracuse, Pitt, Providence(19-15), and USF(only 12-19). Only had to play DePaul, Rutgers, and Seton Hall 1x). They got 10 top 50 games.

I pretty much agree with you that one off those teams will likely emerge out of the pack. I don't think the 5th one will be all that comfortably though- unless Georgetown can get rolling. Marquette and Seton Hall have too many problems with their OOC SOS to get in comfortably unless they go 11-7 or 12-6 in conference play.

for billyjack:
from 1st conference game last year... did this on purpose just for this....
Villanova- 11.1 projected- 2 actual -9
Providence- 48.8 projected- 22 actual -26.8
Georgetown 42.8 projected- 25 actual -17.8
Xavier- 30.8 projected- 31 actual +0.2
Butler 31.2 projected- 32 actual -0.8
St John's 29.7 projected- 44 actual -14.3
Seton Hall 38.7 projected- 98 actual -59.3
Marquetted 100.3 projected- 147 actual -46.3
Creighton 126.5 projected- 152 actual -25.5
DePaul 240.7 projected- 197 actual -43.7
avg projected 70.06
avg actual 75

Pretty darn impressive with X and Butler. What I'm going to do this year is not only have the projected RPI like this, but also the projected SOS. I think the RPI you'll find variance on. The OOC SOS- no where near as much variance at all. With the OOC SOS- there's like 900 games getting in there, so 3-4 games won't make a difference.

I agree with you Billyjack about being too early for teams like Pitt and Louisville. But the point is, we pretty much know with all the cupcakes that Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall have- that those teams aren't going to be good at all.

[stever20]

Stever, why do you continue to harp on OOC SOS when it is just a part of the overall SOS that is scrutinized by the committee? G'town has lost @ MD and vs. Duke (n). Those won't hurt them--could have only helped. So G'town replacing those two games with cupcakes just to get to 20 wins instead of 18, is fruitless.

Last year Xavier's best OOC win came against RPI # 46 Cincy. So OOC they had exactly 1 OOC win vs. the Top 50 RPI AND they posted losses against RPI #'s 92, 149, & 133.

Now I contend that since the BE is a power conference it allows teams opportunities to get quality wins IN conference so they can build their resumes. Case in point, Xavier had the following Top 50 wins IN conference last year: 20 (2x), 22 (3x), 33. So 6 wins in conference vs. top 50 (and 5 vs. the top 25 RPI) and 1 win OOC vs top 50. Which do you think was more critical for X to get in and get a 6 seed: OOC or in conference? Secondly remind me again what their IN conference regular season record was again? I'll answer for you: 9-9.

That my friend is why having a conference loaded with quality teams is so important.

If Georgetown gets 18 wins, they are in. That would mean they have 10 wins between UConn and the Big East. And if they only get 9- so they're 17-14, yes, if they had scheduled UMBC instead of Maryland- it would make the difference. At some point, you have to have at least a certain record to get in. No 15 loss team has EVER been in the NCAA tourney at large. So if they finish 18-15, and miss the tourney, how can you say that the Duke or Maryland game didn't cost them?
Xavier last year... 1st off- Xavier by RPI(official from NCAA)- had 2 top 50 wins- #33 SF Austin and #37 Cincy. The losses were to 78, 112, and 126. By NCAA terms SOS of 44. If X had lost to Cincy, they would have entered the BET absolutely needing at least 1 win to make it. And as we all know pressure can make things a LOT different. X got in because of the OOC schedule and the BET.

[Westbrook#36]

The thing with the bad OOC schedule is that it's 13/31 of the games. That's a lot.
Looking at Marquette:
IUPUI projected 8-22
Jackson St projected 16-13
Grambling projected 6-21(and that's generous)
Maine projected 6-23
San Jose St 5-22
Chicago St 4-24
Presbyterian 7-19
Stetson 8-19
all of those would be in the 50% pot for Marquette.

I'm comparing Nova 12-13 to Marquette this year. I think you would be surprised at what level the OOC schedule That 166 is.
This year DePaul is 152 projected OOC SOS.....
BE- has 4 teams worse
B12 has 3 teams worse than 166 (and a 4th at 158)
P12 has 4 teams worse
SEC has 3 teams worse than 166 (and a 4th at 160)
B10 has 7 teams worse
ACC has 7 teams worse
so 166 is better than 28 of the 74 power teams. about the 37% level.. Only TCU, Clemson and Northwestern are in the 300's this year- with only Clemson and Northwestern really near Marquette.

The other point is that the overall SOS for Nova that year was really good #20. Part of that is their 4 teams that they played 2x were Syracuse, Pitt, Providence(19-15), and USF(only 12-19). Only had to play DePaul, Rutgers, and Seton Hall 1x). They got 10 top 50 games.

I pretty much agree with you that one off those teams will likely emerge out of the pack. I don't think the 5th one will be all that comfortably though- unless Georgetown can get rolling. Marquette and Seton Hall have too many problems with their OOC SOS to get in comfortably unless they go 11-7 or 12-6 in conference play.

If 13/31 games is a lot, what would you consider 18/31? Chopped liver? And thanks for confirming for me that a #167 ooc schedule would indeed be towards the bottom of that particular list. You keep avoiding the fact that in conference SOS has a huge(bigger) impact than ooc SOS. Is a really poor ooc a hindrance or obstacle to overcome? Of course, but it's not the insurmountable obstacle you are going to great lengths to make it seem. Especially if you play in a strong conference like the BE. Now if Marquette were in AAC with that ooc, they'd probably be screwed.