NCAA tourney hopes

[stever20]

Predicting what is going to happen before one conference game occurs again?

Let me ask you this... what if Gtown hands Nova, X, PC and Butler all home losses as part of their 9-9? If all of those teams end up being Top 25 RPI teams are you going to keep Gtown out at that point? Please let them play some games first. These discussions should be February discussions not December ones. There is SO MUCH basketball left to play for EVERY team (well, except DePaul...doh!)

stever being stever, he's got to do whatever he can to counter the national recognition that the BE is really strong this year. So he posts a way too premature NCAA tourney hopes thread and then on top of it plays the pessimistic glass half empty point of view. If so in so only goes 9-9 they won't make it. Funny if he applied the same thing to the AAC, no one in that conference could make it if they go 9-9. Not one single AAC could survive a 9-9 conference record and make the tourney. Wonder if he posted a thread like this on their board? Or any other conference board for that matter.

are AAC fans trying to say that 6 teams is a lock? Nope. And the thing is, after OOC play is complete, you have a really good idea of what it's going to take in conference play to make the tourney. Folks here want to make the case that conference play is all that matters, and that's just not the case at all whatsoever. That if a team finishes .500 in conference play they are in automatcially. Folks want to discount OOC here big time, and that's not realistic.

That's the thing. I don't hear ANYONE on here saying the same it's way too early line to folks talking about 6 NCAA spots. Crickets about that.

[Westbrook#36]

are AAC fans trying to say that 6 teams is a lock? Nope. And the thing is, after OOC play is complete, you have a really good idea of what it's going to take in conference play to make the tourney. Folks here want to make the case that conference play is all that matters, and that's just not the case at all whatsoever. That if a team finishes .500 in conference play they are in automatcially. Folks want to discount OOC here big time, and that's not realistic.

That's the thing. I don't hear ANYONE on here saying the same it's way too early line to folks talking about 6 NCAA spots. Crickets about that.

Is anyone here claiming 6 are a lock? Nope. It's a BE messageboard and some are speculating on the possibility of getting 6, I know it's difficult for you to notice the difference. Folks on here want to discount ooc big time?, not any more than you want to discount in conference schedule. BTW, isn't the BE rated #3 in rpi based on our ooc right now? Don't think too many on here want to discount that, you might though. You're right NO ONE is saying it's too early to talk about possibly getting 6 in, what is too early talking about is saying 9-9 conference records won't get a certain team in without knowing who those 9 wins are against and whether any are on the road. Crickets about that.

Edited: misread quote about ooc. In case stever quoted this before my edit and ripped the part I edit. My bad if so. Would be so much easier if, you know, you didn't have to wait like 5 hours or more for a mod to clear stevers reply. Wonder why that is?

[stever20]

are AAC fans trying to say that 6 teams is a lock? Nope. And the thing is, after OOC play is complete, you have a really good idea of what it's going to take in conference play to make the tourney. Folks here want to make the case that conference play is all that matters, and that's just not the case at all whatsoever. That if a team finishes .500 in conference play they are in automatcially. Folks want to discount OOC here big time, and that's not realistic.

That's the thing. I don't hear ANYONE on here saying the same it's way too early line to folks talking about 6 NCAA spots. Crickets about that.

Is anyone here claiming 6 are a lock? Nope. It's a BE messageboard and some are speculating on the possibility of getting 6, I know it's difficult for you to notice the difference. Folks on here want to talk ooc big time???, how many post/threads have you started about or on here about ooc? And your complaining about others? What a hypocrite you are. You're right NO ONE is saying it's too early to talk about possibly getting 6 in, what is too early talking about is saying 9-9 conference records won't get a certain team in without knowing who those 9 wins are against and whether any are on the road. Crickets about that.

3 things-
1- if a team has 4 OOC losses, and gets 9 more, they have 13 losses. Add 1 in the BET, and that's 14. 14 losses is EXTREMELY unlikely to go dancing. 15 losses has NEVER gone dancing.
2- in a lot of ways it doesn't matter if the 9 wins are home/away. Home wins are .6 and road wins are 1.4, but then again, home losses are 1.4 and road losses are 0.6. If I'm 4-5 away, if I'm 9-9, I must be 5-4 at home. So that's 4 home losses at 1.4 each. The RPI impact would be the exact same.
3- With RPI forecast you can tell pretty well what the RPI would look like at records. 20-11 for Marquette gives them a 90 RPI. Teams with 90 RPI's just don't make the tourney- ever. Aren't even in the discussion.
4- I said folks here want to dismiss OOC.

[stever20]

I give you a case in point of an OOC schedule killing a team. St John's- 2 years ago. They were 20-12, 10-8 in conference play. But their OOC SOS was #145, with 3 losses with it. They missed the tournament. If they had beaten Penn St, they are in the tourney almost certainly.

I don't dismiss the conference schedule. Not at all. But what you have to do in conference play largely ties in to what you've done OOC. Sorry, but Marquette has to do a lot more in conference play than most teams do because of what they have in the OOC department. That's just a fact of prior history. Also, what I'm saying is giving the conference part of the schedule actually a ton of credence. If this were the AAC, Marquette would have no shot.

let's compare 2 teams....
Marquette- projected OOC SOS 335. Record at 10-8 in conference play along with 11-2 OOC schedule- 21-10- 75.6
Houston- projected OOC SOS 341. Record at 10-8 in conference play along with 10-1 OOC schedule- 20-9- 88.3

Marquette being in the BE helps push them thru. If they were in the AAC, they wouldn't have much of a chance unless they did even better in conference play.

I guess what I say is there are thresholds. Take Georgetown for instance. if they lose 10 games between UConn and BE play, they are 17-14. 17-14 teams just do not make the tourney. Haven't for a while. 15 loss team never has made the tourney at large.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Is anyone here claiming 6 are a lock? Nope. It's a BE messageboard and some are speculating on the possibility of getting 6, I know it's difficult for you to notice the difference. Folks on here want to discount ooc big time?, not any more than you want to discount in conference schedule. BTW, isn't the BE rated #3 in rpi based on our ooc right now? Don't think too many on here want to discount that, you might though. You're right NO ONE is saying it's too early to talk about possibly getting 6 in, what is too early talking about is saying 9-9 conference records won't get a certain team in without knowing who those 9 wins are against and whether any are on the road. Crickets about that.

Edited: misread quote about ooc. In case stever quoted this before my edit and ripped the part I edit. My bad if so. Would be so much easier if, you know, you didn't have to wait like 5 hours or more for a mod to clear stevers reply. Wonder why that is?

+1

[SJHooper]

Stever, I can appreciate your brutal honesty at times...I know it's not always popular being a cold realist myself. But did you ever expect a 10 member Big East to have FOUR top 25 teams?! 40% of our conference is ranked and most are not 24th and 25th...most are way lower. If it weren't for G'Town underachieving a ton, they could be our 5th ranked team. The league got 6/10 teams in the tourney last year. Did they perform well? No. But it's like the NFL or MLB playoffs. Just get in the postseason and anything can happen. But come on man, even ESPN of all people are giving us our due. We are an undeniable power conference. 2/3 years of very strong OOC performances against the big football conferences. Recruiting has been great for basically everyone but DePaul. This stuff is all happening with a G'Town team playing way below what it should be. We will never have as many members as a huge football conference or as many top 10-15 teams, but we are the strongest conference in America top to bottom. When a freshmen filled, injury plagued, thin, inexperienced, newly coached St. John's team smacks Syracuse doesn't that wake you up a bit? The team expected to finish last or near last just beat them handily. PC is really blooming, Xavier was an amazing addition as was Butler, Creighton lost their best player ever but will come back soon, G'Town won't stay down for long...life is good.

There is no conference I'd rather be in. We kept the Big East brand, we focus on hoops exclusively, we don't care about college football, and we don't get kept out of the tourney behind teams like UNC, Duke, etc. every year. This is way better than I ever could have imagined. I thought we would be relegated to mid major status, but the past 2 seasons ensured we will not be.

[Hoya Hoya Hoya]

Hoyas decided to shit the bed in the regular season instead of March. There is too much talent on this team to not make the tournament.

[DudeAnon]

Stever, I can appreciate your brutal honesty at times...I know it's not always popular being a cold realist myself. But did you ever expect a 10 member Big East to have FOUR top 25 teams?! 40% of our conference is ranked and most are not 24th and 25th...most are way lower. If it weren't for G'Town underachieving a ton, they could be our 5th ranked team. The league got 6/10 teams in the tourney last year. Did they perform well? No. But it's like the NFL or MLB playoffs. Just get in the postseason and anything can happen. But come on man, even ESPN of all people are giving us our due. We are an undeniable power conference. 2/3 years of very strong OOC performances against the big football conferences. Recruiting has been great for basically everyone but DePaul. This stuff is all happening with a G'Town team playing way below what it should be. We will never have as many members as a huge football conference or as many top 10-15 teams, but we are the strongest conference in America top to bottom. When a freshmen filled, injury plagued, thin, inexperienced, newly coached St. John's team smacks Syracuse doesn't that wake you up a bit? The team expected to finish last or near last just beat them handily. PC is really blooming, Xavier was an amazing addition as was Butler, Creighton lost their best player ever but will come back soon, G'Town won't stay down for long...life is good.

There is no conference I'd rather be in. We kept the Big East brand, we focus on hoops exclusively, we don't care about college football, and we don't get kept out of the tourney behind teams like UNC, Duke, etc. every year. This is way better than I ever could have imagined. I thought we would be relegated to mid major status, but the past 2 seasons ensured we will not be.

+1. Only note, I would argue the BIG12 is strongest conference top to bottom.

[stever20]

Stever, I can appreciate your brutal honesty at times...I know it's not always popular being a cold realist myself. But did you ever expect a 10 member Big East to have FOUR top 25 teams?! 40% of our conference is ranked and most are not 24th and 25th...most are way lower. If it weren't for G'Town underachieving a ton, they could be our 5th ranked team. The league got 6/10 teams in the tourney last year. Did they perform well? No. But it's like the NFL or MLB playoffs. Just get in the postseason and anything can happen. But come on man, even ESPN of all people are giving us our due. We are an undeniable power conference. 2/3 years of very strong OOC performances against the big football conferences. Recruiting has been great for basically everyone but DePaul. This stuff is all happening with a G'Town team playing way below what it should be. We will never have as many members as a huge football conference or as many top 10-15 teams, but we are the strongest conference in America top to bottom. When a freshmen filled, injury plagued, thin, inexperienced, newly coached St. John's team smacks Syracuse doesn't that wake you up a bit? The team expected to finish last or near last just beat them handily. PC is really blooming, Xavier was an amazing addition as was Butler, Creighton lost their best player ever but will come back soon, G'Town won't stay down for long...life is good.

There is no conference I'd rather be in. We kept the Big East brand, we focus on hoops exclusively, we don't care about college football, and we don't get kept out of the tourney behind teams like UNC, Duke, etc. every year. This is way better than I ever could have imagined. I thought we would be relegated to mid major status, but the past 2 seasons ensured we will not be.

There's no doubt what you are saying....

My point is just that teams make the tourney, not the conferences. The 4 top 25 teams are great. Butler's resume could get a bit thin if they lose to Purdue, and then are only 9-9- but there, the power of conference should get them in.....
The other teams though-
Georgetown- has 4 OOC losses. Still left @ UConn. I'm sorry but they need 10 wins between UConn and BE play. Otherwise they are 17-14, and that's just not a good enough record to make the tourney.
Marquette- has 2 OOC losses, plus a 335 OOC SOS. Teams that schedule like that can't leave anything to the committee.
Seton Hall has 2 OOC losses, plus a 275 OOC SOS. HUGE game left with Wichita.
Creighton has 3 OOC losses, plus a 280 OOC SOS. HUGE chance with Oklahoma
St John's has 3 OOC losses. 147 OOC. HUGE game left with South Carolina.

If any of those teams are 9-9, it's going to be a challenge to get them in. Georgetown and for gosh sakes St John's have the best shot to make it.

People here seem to think just generally. We should get 6 teams. But it's just not realistic unless something surprising happens....

The conference can be going strong, but still only get 5 bids. A few years ago, the ACC was #4 conference- but only got 4 bids. BE projected right now as the #4 conference RPI wise.

[stever20]

Hoyas decided to shit the bed in the regular season instead of March. There is too much talent on this team to not make the tournament.

Didn't we say the same thing 2 years ago? This year very similar.