Some unnerving numbers on Nova

[hoops22]

While Nova's inability to shoot the three last night played a large role in Nova's loss, the truth is they haven't shot it well all year. After last nights game their three point percentage this season is down to 28.6%, which ranks 305 out of 351 division one teams. Surprisingly, over 50% of their shots this season have come from behind the arc. While Oklahoma is obviously a quality team, it's not like the rest of Nova's opponents this season have been defensive juggernauts. It will be interesting to see if Jay Wright adjusts the game plan going forward, because there are a number of teams here in the BE (as well as Virginia) that could make this season far more difficult for Nova than many of us previously thought.

[BEX]

Guards might have to stay and rebound instead of leaving early for outlet passes.

[stever20]

rebounding wasn't a huge issue. Oklahoma got 8 offensive rebounds, for 25% success rate. 8.8% better rate for Nova defensively than normal.

4/32 from 3 is the issue. living by the 3 is the issue.

[NovaBall]

Here is the book on Nova, and it is pretty simple:

The defense is awesome. Both half court and the diamond 3/4 court press. As good as it has been in the Jay Wright era.
the rebounding is weaker than normal for a Jay Wright team, but that's not too concerning as the rebounding was never the bread and butter anyway.

The offense is the wildcard. Against teams with strong back courts, it is very difficult to go on spurts from transition scores. It works great against the lesser teams that they smother, but you get some more experienced and poised guards, those 12-2 runs created from the defense and transitioning become less likely. That means the team has to rely on the half court offense, and the half court offense just is not very good right now. I refer to it as the spread and chuck. Although at times last night there were some good glimmers of penetration, it is primarily three point oriented.

So the time when Nova is most vulnerable would be against a team with a good enough back court to control possession of the ball and limit transition scores, coupled with a cold shooting night.

The hope is that the half court offense gains some more of an identity as the kids play with each other more and realize when they have an opportunity to drive as oppose to chuck.


Regarding the % of their shots that are three point versus two point, if you go from the half court set the numbers are even more skewed, as a good number of their two point shots are out of transition.

[NovaBall]

And I think most Nova fans knew this year would have some challenges. In our weekly rankings the Nova fans were putting Xavier right up with the Cats. Nova could be very good, but there is a lot of work left to do to reach that point.

[hoops22]

One positive about Nova is their defense against the three. Even after last night they're still only allowing 31%. There will be nights the defense has to carry them this year, but the D has been pretty solid for the most part.

[stever20]

One positive about Nova is their defense against the three. Even after last night they're still only allowing 31%. There will be nights the defense has to carry them this year, but the D has been pretty solid for the most part.

true- but a lot of that is a function of their opponents
FD 35.5% 124
Neb 37.5% 84
ETS 33.3% 178
Akron 36.8 95
Stan 32.5% 208
GT 33.8% 165
St Joe 26.8 336

Oklahoma 46.5% 4

So only 3 good to great shooting teams so far. Both Nebraska and Akron they did hold them to a bit weaker than normal. Oklahoma not.

What is interesting looking at the game by game numbers- the 2 by far worst defensive games of the year- St Joe's and Oklahoma. The others worst case was 88 defensive rating(or points per 100 poss). Last 2- 109 vs St Joe's and 110 vs Oklahoma.

[billyjack]

The game last night reminded me of the Creighton-Baylor game.
Baylor in 2014 and Oklahoma last night hit everything they threw up from every spot on the floor.

Sometimes you have to just tip your cap to your opponent, and move on. Also, Oklahoma has a really great team and coach.
Or we can pore over every detail on Villanova for the next week and overreact like the owner of an English soccer team.

[stever20]

The game last night reminded me of the Creighton-Baylor game.
Baylor in 2014 and Oklahoma last night hit everything they threw up from every spot on the floor.

Sometimes you have to just tip your cap to your opponent, and move on. Also, Oklahoma has a really great team and coach.
Or we can pore over every detail on Villanova for the next week and overreact like the owner of an English soccer team.

Except they really didn't. They were 14-26 from 3 point range. That's 54%. 8% better than normal for them. 28-60 for field shooting. 46.7%

compare to the Creighton Baylor game. Baylor was 30-47 for the game. 63.8%

[mpwalsh8]

The game last night reminded me of the Creighton-Baylor game.
Baylor in 2014 and Oklahoma last night hit everything they threw up from every spot on the floor.

Sometimes you have to just tip your cap to your opponent, and move on. Also, Oklahoma has a really great team and coach.
Or we can pore over every detail on Villanova for the next week and overreact like the owner of an English soccer team.

I told a MU buddy of mine yesterday morning that I was worried about the Oklahoma game. I thought there was a chance VU could/would lose but I didn't expect the ass kicking we saw. When VU came back to tie the game at 28 it was all done with good defense and penetration on the offense. As soon as the game was tied it went right back to the too many 3's. Games like this happen. Reminded me a bit of the Creighton game in Philly two years ago.

I think the game at Virginia in on 12/19 will give a better indication of how the season will go. Based on what I've seen of Virginia, which isn't much, I think VU matches up better with UVA than OU and it will be a good test fairly quickly, only LaSalle at VU in between, for Villanova to regain confidence and credibility against a worthy opponent.

Anyone ever been to a game at UVA? It is about a 3 hour drive from Raleigh so I am thinking of going up but the tickets aren't cheap unless you are well up in the 300 level.