Monday's Big East Games (6)

[stever20]

Iowa was a garbage debacle. I'm still not sold that this is tourney or bubble team, but I am seeing improvement. That's very encouraging.

I agree with Iowa, but sometimes as a team you have to go thru a game like that.

Just from a numbers perspective I think you all are in great shape. I really think you go at least .500 in conference play(and that may be conservative). With your 10 OOC wins, that puts you in really good shape.

[GumbyDamnit!]

I think the key for Marq is going to be TO's. Marq is currently ranked 300+ in turnovers per possession in all of D1. They're averaging 17 / game right now. To put in perspective Nova, Butler and Prov are all averaging 10 or under. 7 extra possessions a game is going to put a lot of pressure on MU to make up the difference in other areas (off rebounds, creating TO's, etc.).

Also a good coach is going to look at the last couple of minutes vs LSU and test MU with a full court press early and often. They'll need their guards to grow up fast. If they can stabilize that aspect of their game, they can def make some noise with that front court.

And I am not one to make predictions on whether or not you will make the postseason based on 5 games. That's as foolish as it is after 10 or 15 games. Just win each game in front of you and worry about the committee when you get there. There are a ton of games left to prove yourselves. The last 2 games are obviously good results. Keep it up.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Another quick note about Marq since we're on the subject. I'm not sure if the new programs can appreciate how consistent MU was for the decade prior to the nBE forming. Much like X and Nova have been in the league so far, and to a slightly lesser degree Butler and G'town, you just kind of expected that they were a tourney team EVERY year. If the conference can boast 5 programs that are almost all auto qualifiers at the start of each year because of the undeniable talent, we'll be in great shape.

Without causing a major brouhaha among all fan bases, I think the programs most suited to play that role in the near future are (confidence level in order IMO):
Nova
G'town
X
Butler
Marq.
Prov.

Now if we can get a combination of the other 4 joining in consistently then we're really going to be an unbelievable hoops conference. I am not of the belief that conferences need bottom feeders. We can all have fun in March if we elevate our programs.

[NovaBall]

Good point Gumby

I almost assume at the start that Nova, X, and Butler are always going to be good. Just too much institutional consistency not to be. Georgetown is right up there too, but for whatever reason I have them a peg down. That's four teams that you expect to dance 75% of the time. Marquette could also join that group, but with a new coach you want to see it play out a bit first. Providence seems more like a cyclical team, but I have a lot of confidence in Cooley. Creighton to me is the other team capable of making the dance more often than not. I think St. John's is more of the type of team to make the dance 30% of the time, along with Seton Hall.

If we can consistently put 50-60% of our teams in the dance, that's pretty crazy. The tourney wins will come over time, and recruiting will only keep improving.

[stever20]

I think the key for Marq is going to be TO's. Marq is currently ranked 300+ in turnovers per possession in all of D1. They're averaging 17 / game right now. To put in perspective Nova, Butler and Prov are all averaging 10 or under. 7 extra possessions a game is going to put a lot of pressure on MU to make up the difference in other areas (off rebounds, creating TO's, etc.).

Also a good coach is going to look at the last couple of minutes vs LSU and test MU with a full court press early and often. They'll need their guards to grow up fast. If they can stabilize that aspect of their game, they can def make some noise with that front court.

And I am not one to make predictions on whether or not you will make the postseason based on 5 games. That's as foolish as it is after 10 or 15 games. Just win each game in front of you and worry about the committee when you get there. There are a ton of games left to prove yourselves. The last 2 games are obviously good results. Keep it up.

The thing with Marquette is yes, 5 games. However look at the rest of their OOC schedule besides Wisconsin:
Jackson St 87% chance of winning in Ken Pom
Grambling St 99%
Maine 93%
San Jose St 96%
Chicago St 96%
Presbyterian 95%
Then in Jan they get Stetson 94%

So that means worst case scenario unless something goes terribly wrong, Marquette is 10-3 OOC. They'll get enough wins in conference play IMO(they're going to finish I feel at least .500)- to get to the tourney.

[stever20]

Another quick note about Marq since we're on the subject. I'm not sure if the new programs can appreciate how consistent MU was for the decade prior to the nBE forming. Much like X and Nova have been in the league so far, and to a slightly lesser degree Butler and G'town, you just kind of expected that they were a tourney team EVERY year. If the conference can boast 5 programs that are almost all auto qualifiers at the start of each year because of the undeniable talent, we'll be in great shape.

Without causing a major brouhaha among all fan bases, I think the programs most suited to play that role in the near future are (confidence level in order IMO):
Nova
G'town
X
Butler
Marq.
Prov.

Now if we can get a combination of the other 4 joining in consistently then we're really going to be an unbelievable hoops conference. I am not of the belief that conferences need bottom feeders. We can all have fun in March if we elevate our programs.

It's almost impossible to have everyone in March. Your last place team is going to be 4-14 best case. Even if they went 13-0 OOC that's only 17-14. A team that is 4-14 and 17-14 isn't making the NIT or NCAA obviously.

Also, frankly, it's better for the conference if you have a bad team or two. You don't want your last place team to have 6-7 wins. that's going to give your top teams more and more losses, and that hurts their seeds for the tournament.

[ChelseaFriar]

Good point Gumby

Providence seems more like a cyclical team, but I have a lot of confidence in Cooley.

Definitely have been a cyclical team since the original BE years. Then the last 4 years of Welsh and the 3 years of Keno made for a disastrous 7 years that dragged the PC program to a really bad place.

So far with Cooley we have:
2012: No Postseason
2013: NIT Quarterfinals
2014: NCAA Round 1
2015: NCAA Round 1
2016: ?

I'm hoping Cooley can put us in a place where we can become a bit more consistent, at least in terms of sniffing around the NCAA Tournament area more often. We seem to have hit a dry spell in recruiting over the last year, and losing Chukwu hurt, but hopefully that will pick up again.

[GumbyDamnit!]

The thing with Marquette is yes, 5 games. However look at the rest of their OOC schedule besides Wisconsin:
Jackson St 87% chance of winning in Ken Pom
Grambling St 99%
Maine 93%
San Jose St 96%
Chicago St 96%
Presbyterian 95%
Then in Jan they get Stetson 94%

So that means worst case scenario unless something goes terribly wrong, Marquette is 10-3 OOC. They'll get enough wins in conference play IMO(they're going to finish I feel at least .500)- to get to the tourney.

This is where I just can't come along for the ride Stever. I don't care what KenPom says, games have to be played. Last year KenPom told you in February that X and SJU were going to struggle to make the dance and that the AAC was going to get 5 teams. Neither happened and yet you spent weeks defending both ad nauseum.

For God's sake let a team play more than 5 games before saying definitively what's going to happen. MU is talented but young, and the only thing I feel certain about them is that they are going to have great efforts b/c of the talent and off-nights because of their youth. We have ZERO idea how that is going to ultimately play out in the BE conference games until they are played. You seem convinced that are slated for a .500 record, but there are 9 other teams dead set on them not winning those games.

[MUBoxer]

Good point Gumby

I almost assume at the start that Nova, X, and Butler are always going to be good. Just too much institutional consistency not to be. Georgetown is right up there too, but for whatever reason I have them a peg down. That's four teams that you expect to dance 75% of the time. Marquette could also join that group, but with a new coach you want to see it play out a bit first. Providence seems more like a cyclical team, but I have a lot of confidence in Cooley. Creighton to me is the other team capable of making the dance more often than not. I think St. John's is more of the type of team to make the dance 30% of the time, along with Seton Hall.

If we can consistently put 50-60% of our teams in the dance, that's pretty crazy. The tourney wins will come over time, and recruiting will only keep improving.

It's good for you to be on top right now and make those judgements but just to keep you grounded I'm going to remind you that even you guys had a god awful 2012 season, Butler is recently removed from a terrible season. Even the most consistent programs, like say 12straight post seasons 10/12 NCAA tournaments prior to the NBE, fall occasionally and while we're down the program itself still has a consistent percentage (with tournament success) that 90% of the basketball world would kill for including half of our conference.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Boxer, why so sensitive in the face of compliments? You're right though, that even the best programs may have a down year here and there. It happens. The truth of the matter is that MU may not make the tourney for the 3rd straight year. That's not one down year like Nova or Butler as you suggest. That's 3. You guys, to date, join DePaul and SHU as the only teams not to make a tourney in the nBE.

I think that will change soon but so far it hasn't happened and there really is no guarantee that it will happen this year or next. So lighten up a little Francis.