It's Official: Kris Dunn Will Return To PC...!

[stever20]

well if he improved his perimeter shooting and turned the ball over less wouldnt that improve his projected draft pick?

Depends how much. The problem isn't as much his turnovers or jumper as it is his age that's going to prevent him from being a lot higher than what he is right now next season. He'll be 22 in next year's draft. Hardly ancient, but even the best guys at his age have a hard time cracking the top 10 because so much of the draft is based on potential, and an extra year in college saps away at that. Jerian Grant is an All-American and a year older and is projected to be in the same spot as what Dunn is right now. Dunn's a better athlete, but Grant is slightly taller and more skilled. Just my opinion.

It's obviously great news for Providence and the Big East that it's most electrifying player is coming back, and IMO he should have been the stand alone MVP last season. If he's coming back, I'd have to think it's because he wants a degree, which is great. I just think to really improve his stock from where it's at right now he's going to have to be a transcendent player in college basketball next year.

The thing is the last 10 drafts, only 7 players have been drafted top 10 who were 22 years old on Draft night. The last one was in 2011 with Jimmer. The only one who has had a good career of the 7 was Joakim Noah.

regarding the injury prone factor- He's going to have that no matter when he comes out.

This is one of those that it really makes no sense for him to come back. He would need to be transcendent to move up much next year, but would have a lot to lose.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2440 ... -nba-draft

[FriarJ]

well if he improved his perimeter shooting and turned the ball over less wouldnt that improve his projected draft pick?

Depends how much. The problem isn't as much his turnovers or jumper as it is his age that's going to prevent him from being a lot higher than what he is right now next season. He'll be 22 in next year's draft. Hardly ancient, but even the best guys at his age have a hard time cracking the top 10 because so much of the draft is based on potential, and an extra year in college saps away at that. Jerian Grant is an All-American and a year older and is projected to be in the same spot as what Dunn is right now. Dunn's a better athlete, but Grant is slightly taller and more skilled. Just my opinion.

It's obviously great news for Providence and the Big East that it's most electrifying player is coming back, and IMO he should have been the stand alone MVP last season. If he's coming back, I'd have to think it's because he wants a degree, which is great. I just think to really improve his stock from where it's at right now he's going to have to be a transcendent player in college basketball next year.

The thing is the last 10 drafts, only 7 players have been drafted top 10 who were 22 years old on Draft night. The last one was in 2011 with Jimmer. The only one who has had a good career of the 7 was Joakim Noah.

regarding the injury prone factor- He's going to have that no matter when he comes out.

This is one of those that it really makes no sense for him to come back. He would need to be transcendent to move up much next year, but would have a lot to lose.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2440 ... -nba-draft

Once again we are left to reconcile your inconsistent opinions, you said he won't improve his draft position because he is an injury risk, yet NBA teams don't shell out millions of dollars to injury risks, couldn't you even admit that a stellar year next year injury free in a significantly less talent filled draft could indeed improve his draft position?

[stever20]

the thing is, there's a certain number of teams that won't touch Dunn if he comes out now, next year, whenever because of the injuries. There is a ceiling that he's got- no matter what he does.... also the age absolutely will scare teams off as well- think he's been a 22 year old beating up on 18 or 19 year olds.

He would have to have a better than stellar year to really do much to improve his draft stock. And even there, it would only improve it a bit. This is one of those where it's great for the conference, but I just don't think I'd be doing it if I was advising the kid. I don't(and I'm not alone) think there's all that much of a benefit for him, but a great shot at falling back .

I think it's probably a situation right now where Dunn loves PC 1000% but knows that going to the NBA is the right decision. It's the old heart vs brain conflict.

[XUFan09]

It doesn't look like the best decision for his professional future, as he is unlikely to move up much from the first-round range in which he's currently projected and he would lose a year in opportunity cost. Still, I'm happy for Providence and for the Big East.

[FriarJ]

Because everybody is an expert and knows exactly where he is going to be drafted this year. SMH

[stever20]

I think it's pretty interesting 2 days after the report and no confirmation at all from Dunn.

I think you FriarJ are looking at things way too emotionally. The NBA draft for one is way different than the NFL draft. NBA draft is almost 100% on potential. Guys 4 years out from high school just don't get drafted highly any longer. Like I said last night- only 7 guys 22 years old have gotten taken in the top 10 the last 10 years. And only 1 of them has produced- so the NBA guys know something.

[ChestRockwell85]

Because everybody is an expert and knows exactly where he is going to be drafted this year. SMH

Friar, it is my understanding that the NBA teams will be transparent with college coaches to let them know whether or not they intend on drafting a player. They don't want it to be a guessing game for a 20 year-old kid on whether or not he will be drafted. If a kid is told to go, it is usually because he will be drafted. I know with Jay Wright, when he has word that one of his kids will go first round, he tells them to go. Truth.

Regardless, any final word on what Dunn is going to do?

[Irishdawg]

Because everybody is an expert and knows exactly where he is going to be drafted this year. SMH

I don't think anyone's selling themselves as a draft expert, but those that are (i.e. Chad Ford and others) are projecting him to be a mid-first round pick, which is what I think most of us are basing our opinions off of.

Additionally, just in looking at the last few drafts, here's where the top 22 year old player went in each year. No two drafts and players are the same, but it's something Dunn obviously has to weigh when making his decision.

2014 - Doug McDermott #11
2013 - C.J. McCollum #10
2012 - Damian Lilliard #6
2011 - Jimmer Fredette #10
2010 - Evan Turner #2

No one's saying it's a bad thing that he's coming back (once it's officially confirmed anyway) for Providence and the Big East. I just know that if you think he can be a guy that sticks around in the league for quite awhile, it's better to go now, because having that additional year of NBA time vs. another 2-3 million guaranteed (if he moves up about 10 spots from where he's projected at now) gets him to that 2nd contract faster which is where guys start to really make some money. Now if it was a decision between coming out next year or in 2017, I might seriously think about waiting, because the salary cap is about to blow up, and with that I'd have to think the rookie wage scale would also make a big leap as well. Lot to weigh for him, and I don't think anyone's upset to see him back.

[billyjack]

I always thought that in the NBA Draft, once the picks get into the teens in can get unpredictable. By mid-teens they start picking guys from France, Croatia and Transylvania. Some Bulgarian guys could push legitimate talents into the 20's.

Also, people are latching onto the 22 year old thing. Not sure it's as relevant as people are making it. The bigger key i think is that next year's draft is supposed to be much weaker.

[stever20]

I always thought that in the NBA Draft, once the picks get into the teens in can get unpredictable. By mid-teens they start picking guys from France, Croatia and Transylvania. Some Bulgarian guys could push a legitimate talents into the 20's.

Also, people are latching onto the 22 year old thing. Not sure it's as relevant as people are making it. The bigger key i think is that next year's draft is supposed to be much weaker.

Just going by the data, the 22 year old thing is very real. 7 guys age 22 on draft night getting drafted in the top 10 in the last 10 years(with none since 2011-Lilliard and McCollum were 21 on draft night- 22 by start of season). 10 years is kind of important because it's the start of the 1 and done era in college basketball.

I think the foreign thing is more starting in the mid 20's part of the draft.